The Nations Championship reaches its third round of pool matches this weekend. This preview covers everything outside of South Africa v Wales, which gets its own separate write-up. Elsewhere we have New Zealand v Ireland, France v Japan, Australia v Italy, Fiji v Scotland and Argentina v England with plenty of betting value to be found across the markets.
New Zealand v Ireland — Click here to bet
New Zealand won their first two games, beating France 34-32 and Italy 47-17. Ireland have also won their first two, beating Australia 33-31 and Japan 36-20. Both sides come in with a 100% record.
Head-to-Head
New Zealand have had the upper hand in the last few years winning the last three between the sides. Most recent saw New Zealand win 26-13 in Dublin last year.
Betting and Verdict
New Zealand at 1.25, Ireland at 4.75, draw at 31.00. Handicap is New Zealand -10.5
This one looks the pick of the round. New Zealand’s 34-32 win over France was tight but they were ruthless in seeing off Italy 47-17. Ireland have also won both, but by narrower margins, by two over Australia and 16 over Japan. New Zealand have won the last three H2Hs, most recently 26-13 in Dublin, and at home they tend to be a level above almost anyone. We back them to cover the 10.5 handicap.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, New Zealand [-10.5] at 1.87.
Japan v France — Click here to bet
Japan played Ireland last weekend in their second match and lost 36-20 after winning their opening one against Italy, that match ended 27-10. France opened their nations championship with a 34-32 loss to New Zealand away from home but bounced back against Australia last weekend winning the match 42-26.
Head-to-Head
France have won their last four matches against Japan with the most recent encounter seeing them win 52-12 at home back in 2024.
Betting and Verdict
Japan at 17.00, France at 1.02, draw at 67.00 and the handicap is France -27.5
France are massive favourites at 1.02 and it is easy to see why. They rebounded from that narrow loss to New Zealand with a strong 42-26 win over Australia and are hitting form. Japan showed flashes but were outclassed by Ireland last time out. France have won each of the last four meetings, most recently 52-12 at home, and while 27.5 is a big handicap, we think a fully firing France cover it.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, France [-27.5] at 1.87.
Australia v Italy — Click here to bet
Both teams come into this one on the back of poor form having lost their first two matches. Australia lost 33-31 to Ireland and 42-26 to France, while Italy lost 27-10 to Japan followed by a 47-17 loss to New Zealand last weekend. Neither side will want to fall to a third straight defeat in the group.
Head-to-Head
Italy have won the last two against Australia, both at home, by scores of 26-19 and 28-27, while Australia had won the three before that. The last time the sides met in Australia, the Wallabies won 40-27.
Betting and Verdict
Australia are favourites in the market, with the handicap set at Australia -15.5.
Australia have been particularly poor of late, with just one win in their last ten Test outings, and their heavy loss to France was another reminder of how far they have fallen. Italy have won two of their last three H2Hs against the Wallabies, and while both losses so far have been heavy, they will fancy keeping this one within touching distance. At 15.5 on the handicap, Italy look strong value.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Italy [+15.5] at 1.91
Fiji v Scotland — Click here to bet
Fiji lost 73-8 to England last weekend and 39-24 to Wales the week before, so they come in off two heavy defeats. Scotland beat Argentina in their opening game 38-47 away from home, and then lost to South Africa last weekend 42-28.
Head-to-Head
Scotland have won four of the last five between the sides, however Fiji did win the most recent, with the score ending 29-14.
Betting and Verdict
Fiji are at 7.75, Scotland at 1.11 and draw at 41.00. The handicap is Scotland at -17.5.
A strange one this, with Fiji technically the home team but the game being played in Scotland which is a huge boost for the Scots. Fiji have been very poor in this Championship, shipping 112 points across their two heavy defeats to England and Wales, and it is difficult to see them putting up much of a fight against a Scotland side that has beaten Argentina and pushed South Africa. Scotland to cover the 17.5 handicap looks the play.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Scotland [-17.5] at 1.87
Argentina v England — Click here to bet
Argentina beat Wales 35-21 last weekend after losing 47-38 to Scotland the weekend before. England lost 45-21 to South Africa in Pretoria in their first game but bounced back emphatically with a 73-8 win against Fiji last weekend.
Head-to-Head
England have won all of the last five matches between the sides with the most recent result ending 27-23 in London last year. The last time the sides met in Argentina, England won 22-17.
Betting and Verdict
Argentina are at 2.30, England at 1.73, draw at 29.00. The handicap is Argentina +2.5.
This one has all the makings of a classic. England have gone one and one, with a heavy loss to South Africa followed by that huge win over Fiji, and their form is very hard to read. Argentina look a very live outsider at home and they picked up a great win over Wales last weekend and always seem to bring their best in Buenos Aires. England may have won the last five between the sides, but at 2.30 to grab the outright win at home, Argentina represent the value.
Suggested Bet: Argentina to win at 2.30
Click here for betting on all the weekend’s Nations Championship matches
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
