South Africa round out this round of the Nations Championship with a home fixture against Wales as they look to make it three wins from three on their own soil.
After brushing England aside 45-21 in the opening round and backing that up with an impressive 42-28 win against a spirited Scotland side last weekend, the world number one team head into this fixture as overwhelming favourites once again. Wales, meanwhile, arrive in the Highveld with something of a spring in their step after finally putting together a strong run of results this summer, and will be desperate to at least keep the game respectable in front of a hostile home crowd. It should be an entertaining watch to close out this round of fixtures.
South Africa
South Africa delivered another dominant performance last weekend against a Scottish side that brought their A-game to Loftus. The hosts took an early lead, and although Scotland were able to bring it close with a short time left on the clock, some late tries from South Africa meant they ran away with it to win 42-28. That result came off the back of the 45-21 win against England the week before, and means that South Africa have now won their last eleven matches on the bounce — a streak that includes some huge scores against a mixture of tier-one and tier-two opposition.
Head coach Rassie Erasmus has decided to make a number of changes again this weekend, naming four uncapped players in the matchday squad and once again showing off the ridiculous depth of talent he has to draw upon. The biggest of all is the selection of youngster Vusi Moyo, who will run out at flyhalf for South Africa this weekend and get the chance to stake an early claim for a longer-term spot in the 10 jersey. It will be fascinating to see if he can handle the pressure of such a big Test-match debut, but South Africa have every faith in him and the surrounding cast is packed with experience.
Starting XV: Fassi; Williams, Kriel, de Allende, Arendse; Moyo, Reinach; Steenekamp, Marx, Sadie, C Wiese, van Heerden, de Villiers, PS du Toit (capt), J Wiese
Replacements: Venter, Wessels, Louw, Dixon, van Staden, Jantjies, Libbok, Willemse.
Wales
For the first time in years, Wales were able to string together three wins in a row before facing off against Argentina away from home last weekend. Those wins came against Italy, the Barbarians and Fiji, and marked a real turning point after a very difficult couple of years for Welsh rugby. Their match against Argentina, however, saw them struggle badly in the first half, with the score sitting at 28-14 at the break. A much-improved second-half performance, in which both sides were only able to score one try each, saw the match end 35-21 to the hosts. It was a defeat, but there were plenty of positives for Wales to take out of it heading into this week.
Wales have made six changes to their side from last week, with some experience coming back into the team as well as a few youngsters brought in to balance out the group. It looks a well-considered mix, and Wales will hope the fresh legs can help them cope with the altitude and physicality that awaits them at Loftus.
Starting XV: Murray; Rees-Zammit, Llewellyn, B Thomas, Adams; Edwards, Tomos Williams; Carre, Lake (capt), D Lewis, Teddy Williams, Beard, Mann, J Morgan, Wainwright
Replacements: Elias, N Smith, Warren, F Thomas, Reffell, Botham, Morgan-Williams, Hawkins.
Head to head
South Africa have been lethal against Wales in recent years, winning all of the last five matches between the two sides. The last time they met was in Cardiff last year, where South Africa won the match 73-0, a genuinely brutal afternoon for Welsh rugby that will still be fresh in the memory. The last time South Africa hosted Wales was back in 2024, where they won 41-13. There is no getting away from just how one-sided this fixture has been across the recent history.
Betting and Verdict
South Africa at 1.005, Wales at 22.00, draw at 101.00. Handicap is South Africa -41.5.
A 41.5-point handicap is an enormous mountain to climb for South Africa, even against a Wales side that has been thumped by them in recent meetings. Yes, the hosts have put up huge scores lately, including that 73-0 hammering in Cardiff, but Wales look a much better side than the one that turned up that day.
They have three wins from four in this Nations Championship and have shown grit in defeat against Argentina. With Vusi Moyo making his debut at flyhalf and a heavily rotated South Africa side, we like Wales to keep it inside 41 points. This handicap looks generous and gives us plenty of margin for error even if the hosts do run away with the game.
Suggested bet: Handicap, Wales [+41.5] at 1.93.
Yes, the last match between the sides saw the total sail well over 70.5 points thanks to that 73-0 result, but the four meetings before that all landed comfortably under the 70.5-point mark, and 70.5 really is a lot of points to bank on being scored in what could easily turn into a scrappy, kicking-heavy affair.
Wales will look to slow the game down, hold onto possession and starve South Africa of ball where they can. Add in the fact that South Africa have made 10 changes and named a young flyhalf on debut, and there is every chance the hosts’ attacking rhythm is not quite as sharp as it has been. We think this one stays under, and 70.5 looks a very handsome number to take on.
Suggested bet: Total points under 70.5 at 1.91.
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
