UFC Fight Night takes place at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada in the early hours of Sunday the 1st of November, South African time. Renato Moicano faces Tom Nolan in the lightweight main event, while Randy Brown takes on Jacobe Smith at welterweight. We take a closer look at those contests and one additional bout from the main card from a betting angle below.
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RENATO MOICANO vs TOM NOLAN
Lightweight – Main Event:
Renato Moicano enters this main event with a UFC record of 13 wins and 7 losses. Eight of those victories have come by submission, making his ground game an obvious threat. The Brazilian also brings considerably more experience against established opposition into this matchup.
Moicano returned to winning ways with a second round submission victory over Chris Duncan in April. That followed a unanimous decision defeat against Beneil Dariush and a first round submission loss to Islam Makhachev in their title fight. Before those setbacks, he had put together four consecutive victories against Brad Riddell, Drew Dober, Jalin Turner and Benoit Saint Denis.
Tom Nolan brings a tally of 5 wins and 1 loss under the promotion into his first main event. The Australian has shown different ways to win during that run, recording three decision victories alongside a knockout and a submission.
Nolan has won five consecutive fights since suffering a first round knockout defeat against Nikolas Motta on debut. His latest appearance produced a unanimous decision victory over Fares Ziam in June following a first round submission of Charlie Campbell.
BETTING – click here to bet
Moicano 1.80
Nolan 2.10
PREDICTION:
Nolan’s five fight winning streak makes him an interesting challenger but Moicano represents a significant step up in opposition. The Brazilian’s submission record gives him a clear route to victory if he can establish control on the ground. Nolan has earned his opportunity, although a five round contest against such an experienced opponent presents a different assignment. I am backing Moicano to find a submission and secure consecutive victories.
RANDY BROWN vs JACOBE SMITH
Welterweight – Main Card Bout:
Randy Brown comes into this encounter holding a resume of 14 wins and 8 losses inside the organisation. The Jamaican has earned victories by knockout, submission and decision during his lengthy promotional career with eight of his wins coming on the scorecards.
Brown needs a response after consecutive defeats against Gabriel Bonfim and Kevin Holland. Bonfim stopped him in the second round in November before Holland secured a unanimous decision victory in April.
Jacobe Smith enters this bout with a perfect UFC record of 4 wins. The American has finished every opponent he has faced under the promotion, claiming three knockout victories and one submission.
Smith needed only 92 seconds to stop Bruce Whitehead in his latest appearance earlier in October. That followed another first round finish against Josiah Harrell in February. His opening two UFC outings were equally convincing, knocking out Preston Parsons before submitting Niko Price in the second round.
BETTING – click here to bet
Brown 3.25
Smith 1.36
PREDICTION:
Brown offers a much more experienced test than Smith has faced so far but the American’s finishing form is difficult to overlook. Smith has wasted little time establishing himself, while Brown arrives after two defeats and has previously been stopped by heavy hitters. Brown could make this competitive if he settles into the contest, although I favour Smith to apply pressure early and claim another victory by KO/TKO.
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ODE’ OSBOURNE vs CODY DURDEN
Flyweight – Main Card Bout:
Ode’ Osbourne heads into this matchup with a UFC record of 5 wins, 7 losses and 1 no contest. Three of his promotional victories have come by knockout, giving him a potential route to a finish when opportunities appear on the feet.
Osbourne’s latest appearance against Alibi Idiris in February ended in a no contest. Before that he suffered a unanimous decision defeat against Steve Erceg after stopping Luis Gurule in the second round. That victory remains his only win across his last six appearances, with earlier defeats against Asu Almabayev and Jafel Filho both coming by submission.
Cody Durden steps into the octagon holding a record of 7 wins, 9 losses and 1 draw under the institution. Five of his victories have come by unanimous decision, while he has also recorded a knockout against JP Buys and a submission against Matt Schnell.
Durden was submitted by Alessandro Costa in the second round of his latest outing in July. He had previously ended a four fight losing run with a unanimous decision victory against Jafel Filho in April. With just two wins from his last nine appearances, the American also needs a result to improve his recent record.
BETTING – click here to bet
Osbourne 2.00
Durden 1.87
PREDICTION:
Both fighters arrive with inconsistent results, making this a difficult contest to call. Osbourne carries a knockout threat but his submission defeats give Durden reason to pursue exchanges on the ground. Durden’s recent win over Filho offers some encouragement and his record shows he can put together winning performances over three rounds occasionally. Despite that I narrowly favour Osbourne to control enough of the early action and secure a knockout triumph.
SUGGESTED BETS:
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan
Moicano by Submission at 3.00
Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith
Smith by KO at 2.60
Ode’ Osbourne vs Cody Durden
Osbourne by KO at 3.15
THE TREBLE OF ALL 3 BETS TO LAND COMES IN AT 24.57
Note: All prices are correct at the time of writing but subject to change.
T&C’s apply. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Only bet what you can afford to lose.
