The third round of the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League gets underway on Thursday the 1st of October with two interesting fixtures on the programme. Greece host Netherlands looking to maintain their perfect start in Group 2, while Denmark welcome Group 4 leaders Portugal. We take a closer look at both encounters from a betting perspective below.
Greece vs Netherlands – click here to bet
Greece have made an impressive start to their campaign with successive away victories. They opened with a 2-1 win over Serbia before beating Germany 1-0 on Sunday, with Dimitrios Kourbelis scoring the only goal in the 74th minute.
Those results leave Greece top of Group 2 with six points and just one goal conceded. They now return home looking to build on that strong start, although Netherlands have proved difficult opponents in previous meetings.
Netherlands claimed their first victory of the campaign with a 2-1 win away to Serbia on Sunday. Mexx Meerdink opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 30th minute before Serbia struck back shortly after half-time. Meerdink then struck again in the 69th minute to secure all three points.
The Dutch began with a 1-1 home draw against Germany and sit two points behind Greece. Another away victory would take them above their hosts, but they have conceded in both matches and face a side full of confidence.
Head-to-Head
Netherlands have won five of the last six meetings listed between the nations, while Greece have won one.
The Dutch won both Euro 2024 qualifiers, recording a 3-0 home victory before winning 1-0 in Greece. Greece’s only victory across those six encounters came in a friendly in 2016, when they beat Netherlands 2-1 away.
Match Odds (1X2)
Greece: 3.40
Draw: 3.75
Netherlands: 2.15
Verdict
Greece deserve respect after winning away to Serbia and Germany and home advantage makes them a difficult opponent. Netherlands showed their ability to respond after conceding an equaliser on Sunday, however, and their strong record in this fixture gives them the edge for me. I am backing the visitors to claim a narrow victory and move top of the group.
BET: Match Result – Netherlands to Win at 2.15
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Denmark vs Portugal – click here to bet
Denmark bounced back from their opening defeat with a 2-0 home victory over Wales on Sunday. A Welsh own goal broke the deadlock in the 53rd minute before Gustav Isaksen added a second in the 66th to secure their first points.
The Danes had started with a 3-2 loss away to Norway, making the clean sheet against Wales a welcomed improvement. They have scored twice in each of their opening matches and will look to carry that attacking form into another home fixture.
Portugal maintained their winning start with a 2-1 victory away over Norway. Joao Felix put them ahead in the 17th minute before Erling Haaland equalised in the 51st. Goncalo Ramos restored Portugal’s advantage just three minutes later with what proved to be the winning goal.
That result followed a 1-0 home win over Wales and leaves Portugal top of Group 4 with six points. Both victories have come by a single goal but their quick response in Norway showed their ability to regain control when tested.
Head-to-Head
Portugal have won four of the last six meetings between the nations, while Denmark have won two.
Their most recent encounters came in the 2025 Nations League quarterfinals. Denmark won the first leg 1-0 at home before Portugal responded with a 5-2 victory after extra time to progress. Portugal also won both Euro 2016 qualifiers 1-0.
Match Odds (1X2)
Denmark: 3.50
Draw: 3.75
Portugal: 2.10
Verdict
Denmark’s response against Wales sets this up as a competitive contest, particularly as they beat Portugal at home in their last meeting. Portugal have nevertheless made the stronger start to this campaign and showed against Norway that they can win a demanding away fixture. I am backing the visitors to make it three victories from three, although Denmark should push them closely.
BET: Match Result – Portugal at 2.10
Note: All prices are correct at the time of writing but subject to change.
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