South Africa travel to Kenya for a crucial Africa Cup of Nations qualifier, looking to return to winning ways after being held to a disappointing 2-2 draw by the same opponents on Friday evening. With Guinea breathing down their necks at the top of Group D, South Africa will be desperate to collect all three points.
We take a look at the match from a betting angle.
Kenya v South Africa
Kenya currently sit third in Group D with two points from three matches, but they are safe in the knowledge that they have already qualified for the tournament as co-hosts.
They opened their campaign with a 1-1 home draw against Eritrea before suffering a narrow 1-0 defeat away to Guinea.
On Friday evening, they travelled to South Africa and twice fell behind, but showed plenty of character to fight back on both occasions. Michael Olunga equalised from the penalty spot in the 44th minute before Ryan Ogum grabbed a dramatic injury-time equaliser to secure a 2-2 draw.
South Africa lead Group D, one point ahead of second-placed Guinea, but Friday’s result has increased the pressure on them as they look to secure qualification.
They opened their campaign with a 2-1 home victory over Guinea before producing an impressive 5-0 away win against Eritrea.
South Africa started as 1.32 favourites against Kenya on Friday and took the lead in the ninth minute through Amos Wanjala. After Kenya equalised shortly before half-time, Relebohile Mofokeng restored South Africa’s advantage in the 77th minute.
However, they were unable to see out the game, conceding an injury-time equaliser to settle for a disappointing 2-2 draw.
Head-to-Head
The sides played out a 2-2 draw in South Africa on Friday evening.
Prior to that meeting, their most recent encounter had been a friendly in 2012, which South Africa won 2-1. There is little other meaningful recent head-to-head form to consider.
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Key terms and conditions:
- Scratched or voided markets do not count towards the leg count.
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Betting – click here to bet
Kenya 4.50
Draw 3.25
South Africa 1.87
Verdict
South Africa were disappointing on Friday, particularly in defence, and the pressure is now firmly on them to collect maximum points.
Kenya, on the other hand, can play with considerably less pressure, knowing that they have already qualified as co-hosts. Given Friday’s performance, I’m a little surprised to see South Africa trading as short as 1.87 favourites.
That said, I still fancy the visitors to win, and there are several betting markets worth considering as I also fancy we will get goals.
The straight South Africa victory is available at 1.87, while over 2.5 goals at 2.50 looks fair value after Friday’s four-goal encounter. Both teams to score at 2.30 also appeals, particularly given South Africa’s defensive struggles.
However, I’m going to combine the South Africa victory with over 2.5 goals. They have scored nine goals in their opening three qualifiers, but their defensive vulnerability suggests Kenya could also contribute to the scoring.
BET: Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 – South Africa and Over 2.5 Goals at 3.65
Note: All prices are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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