The third Test of the 4 match series takes place this weekend, with South Africa hosting New Zealand for what is the final match on South African soil before the two sides head over to the USA for the fourth and final Test of the series.
The series is currently tied 1-1 after South Africa levelled things up with a superb 33-26 win in Cape Town last weekend. Both sides know how important this Test is as a win here will put them in the driver’s seat heading into the USA, while a loss will leave them needing to win in front of a neutral crowd to level the series.
First Test 22 August
New Zealand got the series off to the perfect start, beating South Africa 33-16 in Johannesburg in the opening Test. The game was a tight contest to start with, with South Africa leading 13-12 at the break, however a poor second-half performance and two late yellow cards saw them lose the second half 21-3.
Second Test 29 August
After making a number of changes to the starting line-up due to injury and player performance, South Africa put in a much better performance in the second Test. They got off to a strong start with Jesse Kriel scoring in the first two minutes of the game. A solid rest of the half meant they led 24-14 at the break. This time round, they had a much better second half and, although New Zealand won the half 12-9, South Africa were able to hold onto their lead and win the match 33-26.
South Africa
South Africa have gone with a very similar line-up to the second Test after their strong performance. With only a few changes coming in due to injury, the starting line-up and bench look relatively unchanged. Cheslin Kolbe moves to 15 while Kurt-Lee Arendse returns to the wing.
Starting XV: 15 Cheslin Kolbe, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach; 1 Ox Nche, 2 Malcolm Marx, 3 Wilco Louw, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 5 Ruan Nortje, 6 Siya Kolisi, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 8 Jasper Wiese
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Morne van den Berg, 23 Manie Libbok
New Zealand
New Zealand have also named a very similar side to the second Test, with just a handful of changes in the forwards while the backline remains unchanged. Fabian Holland moves to the bench, while Sam Darry gets his start at lock. Asafo Aumua will start at hooker in place of Codie Taylor, and Peter Lakai comes in on flank.
Starting XV: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard; 1 George Bower, 2 Asafo Aumua, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 4 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Sam Darry, 6 Peter Lakai, 7 Luke Jacobson, 8 Ardie Savea
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Fabian Holland, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Josh Moorby
Betting and Verdict
South Africa are favourites and are trading at 1.35 while New Zealand are at 3.50. The draw is currently at 29.00, and the handicap is set at South Africa -7.5.
The first game saw New Zealand win by 17 points, while the second Test saw South Africa win by 7. In both of the last two matches, South Africa have not been able to cover the -7.5 handicap. When looking back at their home form against New Zealand, South Africa last beat New Zealand by more than 7.5 points on home soil back in 2022 and the two sides have played five matches since then in South Africa without that mark being reached.
With New Zealand having named a hugely competitive side and momentum swinging back and forth across the series, we think this one will be another very tight affair, and for that reason we think South Africa will again struggle to cover the handicap.
Suggested bet: Handicap, New Zealand [+7.5] at 1.95.
New Zealand scored 33 points in the first Test and 26 points in the second. In their last five matches in South Africa, they have failed to score more than 23.5 points on just one occasion, back in 2024 and the other four games have seen them score 26, 33, 27 and 35 respectively. There is rain predicted for this weekend, however we saw how New Zealand were able to adapt to that weather against the Sharks earlier on the tour, where they were still able to score 54 points in a drenched Durban. For those reasons, we think we will see them score more than 23.5 points again this weekend.
Suggested bet: New Zealand total points over 23.5 at 1.90
Click here for all betting on South Africa v New Zealand match
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
