The Nations Championship moves into its fourth round this weekend as the Southern Hemisphere teams head north, with South Africa travelling to Turin to face Italy at the Allianz Stadium on Saturday 7 November.
The Springboks arrive as overwhelming favourites after winning all three of their Nations Championship matches in July, while Italy are still searching for their first victory following a difficult opening three rounds.
With little appeal in backing South Africa in the match-winner market at 1.02, our attention turns to the handicap and total points markets, where we have two suggested bets.
The Nations Championship moves into its fourth round this weekend as the Southern Hemisphere teams head north, with South Africa travelling to Turin to face Italy at the Allianz Stadium on Saturday 7 November.
The Springboks arrive as overwhelming favourites after winning all three of their Nations Championship matches in July, while Italy are still searching for their first victory following a difficult opening three rounds.
With little appeal in backing South Africa in the match-winner market at 1.02, our attention turns to the handicap and total points markets, where we have two suggested bets.
Italy
Italy went into the Nations Championship hoping to build on the progress they have made under Gonzalo Quesada, but their July campaign was a disappointing one.
An opening defeat to Japan was followed by a 47-17 loss to New Zealand and a heavy 57-10 defeat against Australia. Those results left Italy without a win from their first three matches and highlighted the difficulties they have faced against stronger opposition.
Things have not become any easier ahead of the visit of the world champions. Quesada has been forced into making ten changes to his starting side, largely because of injuries, with several influential players unavailable.
Among those missing are regular captain Michele Lamaro, centre pairing Tommaso Menoncello and Juan Ignacio Brex, and forwards Sebastian Negri and Andrea Zambonin. Their absence is a significant blow, particularly against a Springbok side that will look to dominate the physical exchanges.
There are some positives for the hosts. Ange Capuozzo returns on the wing, Monty Ioane provides experience and attacking threat, while Paolo Garbisi will direct proceedings at fly-half.
However, the back row looks particularly vulnerable. Samuele Locatelli will make his international debut at openside flanker, while Alessandro Ortombina has very limited Test experience. Facing the likes of Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Jasper Wiese will be a considerable challenge.
Hooker Giacomo Nicotera captains the side in Lamaro’s absence.
Italy Starting XV:
15 Mirko Belloni, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Paolo Odogwu, 12 Leonardo Marin, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Samuele Locatelli, 6 Alessandro Ortombina, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera (c), 1 Muhamed Hasa.
Replacements:
16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Danilo Fischetti, 18 Ion Neculai, 19 Enoch Opoku-Gyamfi, 20 Ross Vintcent, 21 Manuel Zuliani, 22 Stephen Varney, 23 Tommaso Allan.
South Africa
South Africa made a perfect start to their Nations Championship campaign, winning all three matches against England, Scotland and Wales to collect the maximum 15 points.
They followed that with a victory over Argentina before turning their attention to the Greatest Rivalry series against New Zealand.
The Springboks lost the opening Test 33-16 but responded impressively, winning the next three matches to claim the series 3-1. That was followed by a disappointing 42-38 defeat to Australia, a result that Rassie Erasmus will be determined to put behind him.
Erasmus has responded by naming an exceptionally strong side for the trip to Turin, with several experienced players returning to the starting lineup.
Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu is back at fly-half alongside the in-form Morne van den Berg, while Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel form an experienced midfield partnership.
The front row of Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx and Thomas du Toit looks particularly imposing, while the back row of Kolisi, Du Toit and Wiese should give South Africa a considerable advantage at the breakdown and in the physical exchanges.
There is also plenty of firepower out wide, with Kurt-Lee Arendse, Ethan Hooker and Damian Willemse capable of exploiting any defensive weaknesses.
The Springboks have considerable depth on the bench, with experienced forwards such as Lood de Jager and Wilco Louw available to maintain the intensity in the second half.
Given Italy’s injury problems and the strength of the South African selection, the visitors will be confident of dominating both territory and possession.
South Africa Starting XV:
15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Salmaan Moerat, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements:
16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Cameron Hanekom, 21 Paul de Villiers, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok.
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Head to head
Italy have beaten South Africa only once in Test rugby, recording a famous 20-18 victory in Florence in 2016.
Since then, the Springboks have dominated the rivalry, winning the subsequent six encounters.
Their most emphatic recent victory on Italian soil came in 2022, when they ran in nine tries in a 63-21 win.
The sides met again in Turin in 2025, with South Africa winning 32-14 despite playing most of the match with 14 men following Franco Mostert’s early red card.
That result demonstrated the gulf between the teams, particularly in the forwards, and Italy now face an arguably stronger Springbok selection while dealing with considerably more injuries of their own.
Betting and Verdict
South Africa are at 1.02, Italy at 18.00 and the draw at 46.00. The handicap is South Africa -28.5.
South Africa -28.5 points
There is a strong case for South Africa covering the handicap, particularly given the contrasting strength of the two starting lineups.
Italy conceded 47 points against New Zealand and 57 against Australia in their last two Nations Championship matches. They now face a Springbok side with arguably the strongest pack in world rugby, against an Italian forward unit missing several regular starters.
The absence of Lamaro and Negri is particularly concerning, and the inexperienced Italian back row could struggle to contain the physicality of Kolisi, Du Toit and Wiese.
South Africa also have a powerful bench, which should allow them to maintain the pressure throughout the match. If the Springboks establish control early, there is every chance they will pull away in the second half.
Erasmus will also be looking for a response after the defeat to Australia, while points difference could become important in the race for top spot in the Southern Hemisphere standings.
We expect South Africa to dominate territory, possession and the set pieces, and Italy may struggle to stay within four converted tries.
Suggested Bet: South Africa -28.5 points at 1.91
Total Points Over 63.5
Our second selection is for the match to produce over 63.5 points, and this ties in with our expectation that South Africa will dominate proceedings.
Italy conceded 47 points against New Zealand and 57 against Australia in their last two Nations Championship matches. They now face a Springbok side packed with attacking talent, backed by a powerful forward unit that should provide plenty of front-foot possession.
The Italians are particularly vulnerable up front, with several regular starters missing. If South Africa establish the dominance we expect at the set pieces and breakdown, their backs should have plenty of opportunities to exploit a stretched Italian defence.
The Springboks also have considerable firepower on the bench, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them run in several tries during the final quarter as Italy begin to tire.
The last time South Africa really cut loose in Italy was in 2022, when they ran in nine tries in a 63-21 victory, producing 84 points in total. While we are not necessarily expecting a repeat of that scoreline, it illustrates what can happen when the Springboks establish complete control.
Italy are also capable of contributing to the scoreboard. With Capuozzo and Ioane out wide, they have enough individual quality to take advantage of the occasional opportunity, even if they spend much of the match defending.
A result such as 52-14 would see South Africa cover the handicap and take the total beyond 63.5 points.
With the Springboks fielding such a strong side against an injury-hit Italian team, I expect them to put up a substantial score, and the over looks the better option.
Suggested Bet: Total Points Over 63.5 at 1.91
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