The Bledisloe Cup is already decided, but there is still plenty on the line in Sydney this weekend as Australia and New Zealand meet for the second and final Test of the series. New Zealand did the job in the first Test at Eden Park, running out 50-19 winners to retain the Bledisloe Cup for another year, and the Wallabies are now left with pride to play for in front of their home crowd at Accor Stadium.
Australia arrived at the first Test on a six-match unbeaten run and were far more competitive than the final scoreline suggests, trailing by just three points at half time before the All Blacks pulled away. Both sides have made changes for the rematch, and with New Zealand big favourites once again, we have two suggested bets.
New Zealand have won their last 12 matches against Australia, but the Wallabies will be desperate to avoid a second heavy defeat in as many weeks, and we have a view on both the full-time and first half markets. Here is our full betting preview.
Previous Test – 10 October
The two sides met in New Zealand last week at Eden Park, in the first of the two matches to be played against each other. New Zealand came into the match after a 3-1 loss in the series against South Africa. Australia, on the other hand, came into the game off the back of a six-match unbeaten run, winning five matches and drawing one. The most impressive win was the recent win over South Africa, where they beat them 42-38 at home.
Australia opened the scoring with the first try of the match through Tom Wright to take an early lead. New Zealand answered quickly with two tries in quick succession to take the lead. They then slotted a penalty through Damian McKenzie near the end of the first half, but Australia had an answer for that, scoring a try of their own in the 37th minute. The two sides went into the break with New Zealand leading 17-14 and the match still in the balance.
The second half was a much more one-sided affair as New Zealand scored five tries and slotted four conversions to score 33 points and take their total to 50 points. Australia were only able to score one try in the second half, in the 76th minute, when the match was all but done.
Australia
Australia have made a number of changes to their side from the first Test due to injuries, suspensions and player rotation. Len Ikitau is out this week after a head knock in the first half of last week’s game, while Hunter Paisami has been suspended. This means a new centre partnership of Suaalii and Henry will take to the field. The speedster Harry Potter returns to the wing, while Declan Meredith will start at 10 over Ben Donaldson.
Starting XV: 15. Tom Wright, 14. Max Jorgensen, 13. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12. Isaac Henry, 11. Harry Potter, 10. Declan Meredith, 9. Ryan Lonergan; 1. Aidan Ross, 2. Josh Nasser, 3. Allan Alaalatoa, 4. Jeremy Williams, 5. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 6. Rob Valetini, 7. Fraser McReight, 8. Harry Wilson (c)
Replacements: 16. Billy Pollard, 17. Angus Bell, 18. Massimo De Lutiis, 19. Josh Canham, 20. Carlo Tizzano, 21. Kalani Thomas, 22. Harry McLaughlin-Phillips, 23. Filipo Daugunu.
New Zealand
New Zealand have also made a number of changes to their side through injuries and player rotation. Josh Moorby will start on the wing after Carter’s injury last weekend. The bench sees a number of changes, with hooker Samisoni Taukei’aho, prop Xavier Numia, loose forward Du’Plessis Kirifi, scrum-half Cortez Ratima and centre Timoci Tavatavanawai all coming in.
Starting XV:
15-Beauden Barrett, 14-Will Jordan, 13-Quinn Tupaea, 12-Jordie Barrett, 11-Josh Moorby, 10-Damian McKenzie, 9-Cam Roigard, 8-Wallace Sititi, 7-Peter Lakai, 6-Tupou Vaa’i, 5-Fabian Holland, 4-Scott Barrett, 3-Fletcher Newell, 2-Codie Taylor (captain), 1-George Bower.
Replacements: 16-Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17-Xavier Numia, 18-Pasilio Tosi, 19-Shannon Frizell, 20-Du’Plessis Kirifi, 21-Cortez Ratima, 22-Timoci Tavatavanawai, 23-Rieko Ioane.
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Betting and Verdict
The bookies have the home side Australia at 4.00, while New Zealand are favourites, trading at 1.31 for the win.
The handicap is New Zealand -9.5 at the time of writing
New Zealand have won their last 12 matches against Australia and don’t look like slowing down any time soon. They scored 50 points at Eden Park last week, with five second-half tries, and that kind of attacking power makes a winning margin of 10 or more very achievable. After their performance last weekend, I think they will be able to cover the handicap.
Suggested bet: Handicap, New Zealand [-9.5] at 1.87.
The first half produced 31 points when these sides met at Eden Park last weekend, with New Zealand taking a narrow 17-14 lead into the break.
While 69 points were eventually scored, most of the damage came during the second half as the All Blacks pulled clear. Australia have also been forced into a late change at flyhalf, which could affect their attacking cohesion early in the match.
I expect another competitive opening period, with the game potentially opening up after the interval. The 28-34 first-half points range looks an attractive option at the prices.
Suggested bet: 28-34 first-half points at 3.40.
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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