After some remarkable golf last week, with incredibly low scoring on display at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, the PGA Tour remains in Texas as the field heads to Fort Worth for the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge. This week presents a completely different examination, however, with Colonial Country Club widely regarded as one of the purest accuracy and ball-striking tests on the schedule. It will be fascinating to see which players can quickly adapt from a birdie-fest to a far more strategic and demanding layout. Below, we take a look at the tournament from a betting angle and highlight a few suggested plays.
The Course
The players return to Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth this week for one of the purest ball-striking tests on the PGA Tour calendar. Nicknamed “Hogan’s Alley” in honour of Ben Hogan, who won here five times, Colonial is a classic par-70 layout measuring 7,289 yards (6,665 metres) that continues to reward precision, discipline and elite iron play over raw power.
This is not a venue where players can simply overpower the course. The fairways are tight and tree-lined, many holes feature subtle doglegs that require players to shape shots both ways, and the Trinity River comes into play on six holes. Positioning off the tee is critical, with many players opting for less than driver simply to find the correct angles into the greens.
Gil Hanse’s 2023 renovation further enhanced the traditional strategic feel of the layout. The restoration sharpened bunker positioning, refined green surrounds and reinforced Colonial’s reputation as a course that resists the modern bomb-and-gouge style of golf. Bermuda fairways and Bermuda greens frame the layout throughout, while the relatively small putting surfaces place enormous pressure on approach accuracy and distance control.
One of the defining stretches at Colonial is the famous “Horrible Horseshoe” – holes 3, 4 and 5 which is widely regarded as one of the toughest three-hole stretches on tour. Players simply trying to survive that section around level par often gain shots on the field. Bogey avoidance and intelligent course management are therefore hugely important, especially if the Texas wind begins to swirl later in the day.
From a betting perspective, Colonial consistently favours accurate drivers, elite approach players and strong scramblers. Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been one of the clearest indicators of success here, while course history also tends to carry significant weight. Recent winners such as Ben Griffin, Davis Riley and Emiliano Grillo all fit the mould of disciplined tee-to-green performers capable of patiently picking the course apart.
Market Leaders
Ludvig Åberg is the clear favourite this week, trading at 10.00 in what is otherwise a wide-open market. Russell Henley is the next-shortest price at 19.00, having developed into one of the most consistent ball-strikers on Tour and a player whose game maps very neatly onto a course like Colonial. Justin Thomas is at 23.00, while defending champion Ben Griffin, Robert McIntyre and Rickie Fowler are all available at 26.00.
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Betting (2026 Charles Schwab Challenge) – Click here to bet
Ludvig Åberg 10.00
Russell Henley 19.00
Justin Thomas 23.00
Robert McIntyre 26.00
Ben Griffin 26.00
Rickie Fowler 26.00
Previous Winners
2025 Ben Griffin (United States) -12 (1 stroke)
2024 Davis Riley (United States) -14 (5 strokes)
2023 Emiliano Grillo (Argentina) −8 (Playoff)
2022 Sam Burns(United States) −9 (Playoff)
2021 Jason Kokrak (United States) −14 (2 strokes)
Selections:
Ludvig Åberg at 10.00
Åberg arrives at Colonial off the back of a really strong run of form. He finished fourth at the RBC Heritage, an extremely tight course in a very similar mould to this week’s test, followed that up with an eighth at the Truist Championship, and tied for fourth in his last start at the PGA Championship, another venue where accuracy was at a premium. He is currently ranked 6th on Tour for strokes gained on approach and 2nd for total driving. If he can keep those numbers ticking over this weekend, he is going to be very hard to beat.
Suggested bet: Ludvig Åberg each way at 10.00
Alex Smalley at 31.00
Smalley is a bit of an outside shot here, but his recent results speak for themselves. He is coming off a sensational runner-up finish at the PGA Championship, where he showed just how good his game is right now. His three results before that were 17th at the Truist Championship, 7th at the Miami Championship and a runner-up at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in the team event. Smalley is not a long hitter of the ball, but what he lacks in distance he more than makes up for in accuracy. He is ranked 16th on Tour for greens in regulation and 12th for proximity to the hole, two stats that play directly into Colonial’s hands, although he doesn’t have a great record here. I like him as a value play this weekend and will ignore previous course struggles on the basis that he is now a much improved player.
Suggested bet: Alex Smalley each way at 31.00.
Matt McCarty at 61.00
McCarty was on a serious hot streak heading into the PGA Championship, having posted top-10 finishes in three events in a row at the Truist Championship, the Miami Championship and the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Prior to that he had finished 12th at the RBC Heritage, a course similar in style to this week’s test in that accuracy was the deciding factor. A disappointing Thursday and Friday at the PGA Championship saw him miss the cut, but after a week off he should be fresh and ready to bounce back, and I could easily see another top-10 from him here. McCarty sits mid-pack across most of the Tour stats, but the one number that jumps out is his average proximity to the hole, he is ranked 10th on Tour, and as we discussed earlier, accuracy is everything around Colonial.
Suggested bet: Matt McCarthy each way at 61.00 and a top 10 finish at 6.50
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
