The Greg Norman-designed Earth Course at the Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai once again plays host to the final Tournament of the DP World Tour season and we select 4 players to take on the bookies.
This par 72 layout has wide fairways and plenty of bunkers. The greens are large and fast and there is water in play down the finishing stretch. Due to the generous nature of the fairways, driving distance has proved important here over recent years, but good iron play is also a must with greens in regulation an important stat.
2022 – Jon Rahm -20
2021 – Collin Morikawa -17
2020 – Matt Fitzpatrick -15
2019 – Jon Rahm -19
2018 – Danny Willett -18
This being the final event in the Race to Dubai it often decides who will win the race, however, this year Rory Mcilroy cannot be caught. It is a limited-field event with the Top 50 on the Race to Dubai standings taking part. 2015 Champion Rory Mcilroy is the market leader this week at a current price of 9/2. Viktor Hovland, who finished the PGA Tour season so strongly is on 11/2 with the defending Champion, Jon Rahm (update Hovland now 13/2). Matthew Fitzpatrick, a two-time Champion here in 2016 and 2020 and is at 14/1 alongside Tyrell Hatton with 16/1 and better the balance.
If you fancy the favourites to go well this week there are some special markets on offer such as The Big 3 v The Field where Hovland, Rahm, and Mcilroy are 5/4 and the field can be backed at 11/20 – click here to bet on Big 3 v The Field
BETTING – Click here to bet
Rory Mcilroy 9/2
Jon Rahm 11/2
Victory Hovland 11/2
Matt Fitzpatrick 14/1
Tyrrell Hatton 14/1
16/1 and better the balance, prices correct at the time of posting but subject to change
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While I wouldn’t write off any of their chances I am going to bypass the Top 3 in the betting as I look to find a winner this week.
Suggested Bet: Matthew Fitzpatrick each way at 14/1
As mentioned above Fitzpatrick has won this event twice, but that doesn’t tell the whole story as he has been incredibly consistent and in the last three years he hasn’t finished worse than 5th and he has had four Top 10’s in a row. He hasn’t been in action for a few weeks, but his last start was a victory and if he can hold some of that form he should be right there come Sunday the back 9.
Suggested Bet: Nicolai Hojgaard each way at 33/1
Hojgaard impressed last week at Sun City finish runner-up to Max Homa and he has only played this event once back in 2021 where he finished 4th. I like the fact that he has been playing golf and his game is guaranteed to be sharp for this one.
Suggested Bet: Adrian Otaegui each way at 125/1
Otaegui has some very solid form over the course including a 4th place finish in 2018 and since then he has had a 14th place in 2020 and a 16th place last year. He didn’t play in 2019 and 2021. He is the sort of player who usually flies under the radar, but of the bigger prices this week he is one I fancy could make a run for the title.
Suggested Bet: Adrian Meronk each way at 33/1
Meronk faded a bit at Sun City, but he still managed to finish 15th and there was lots to like about his game and he will enjoy the generous landing surface at the Earth course. His previous start was a victory and he has only played in this Tournament twice, coming 32nd on debut in 2021 and improving to 7th last year.