Australia host South Africa at Optus Stadium in Perth on Sunday for a one-off Test, with the Mandela Challenge Plate on the line. This is Australia’s only meeting with South Africa in 2026, so this single match will decide who takes the Plate for the year. It is a mouth-watering clash between a Wallabies side full of confidence after a strong run of results and a heavily-rotated South Africa side fresh off a series win over New Zealand.
Australia
Australia are heading into this week’s game off the back of some good results. After winning just one of ten games during 2025 and the start of 2026, they went on a five-game unbeaten streak, winning four and drawing one. They started the run with a home win over Italy, 57-10, and followed it up with consecutive wins over Japan, 35-32 and 56-17. They then faced Argentina away in a two-Test series, winning the first game 27-21 and drawing the second 28-28 to seal their first ever series win on Argentine soil and reclaim the Puma Trophy for the first time since 2022.
Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 10 Ben Donaldson, 9 Ryan Lonergan, 8 Harry Wilson (captain), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Jeremy Williams, 4 Josh Canham, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 Aidan Ross, 18 Taniela Tupou, 19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20 Tom Hooper, 21 Carlo Tizzano, 22 Tate McDermott, 23 Harry Potter.
South Africa
South Africa are coming into this week off the back of a series win against New Zealand. They started the series off on the wrong foot, losing the first Test 33-16 at Ellis Park. A swift bounce back saw them win the next three Tests, 33-26, 29-24 and 43-28, with that final Test played in Baltimore, to take the series 3-1. This meant they had won nine of their last ten matches across all competitions.
They have made a whopping 13 changes to their side from the last game against New Zealand. The only two players who retained their spots are Eben Etzebeth and Ethan Hooker, with Etzebeth set to extend his own record as the most-capped forward in South African history to 147 Test matches. Handre Pollard returns from a calf injury to start in the 10 jersey with Herschel Jantjies partnering him from scrumhalf, while Andre Esterhuizen will captain the side from inside centre, becoming South Africa’s 68th Test captain. Head coach Rassie Erasmus rested veterans Pieter-Steph du Toit and Damian de Allende for this game, sending them home to their families after a heavy few months, and said Australia “pose a completely different threat to New Zealand” given their recent form.
South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Edwill van der Merwe, 13 Canan Moodie, 12 Andre Esterhuizen (captain), 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Herschel Jantjies, 8 Marco van Staden, 7 Elrigh Louw, 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Zachary Porthen, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Jan-Hendrik Wessels
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Ox Nche, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Jasper Wiese, 21 Morne van den Berg, 22 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 23 Quan Horn
Head to head
South Africa have dominated the head to head over recent years, with Australia’s only win in their last five meetings coming in a remarkable upset last year, when they came back from 22-0 down to win 38-22 in Johannesburg, their first victory at Ellis Park in 62 years.
The last time the sides met in Australia, back in 2024, South Africa won comfortably in Brisbane, 33-7, a result that underlined just how big an outlier last year’s Ellis Park result was.
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Betting and Verdict
South Africa are favourites and are trading at 1.40 while Australia are at 3.25. The draw is currently at 26.00, and the handicap is set at South Africa -7.5.
Despite the wholesale changes to their side, South Africa still boast enormous strength in depth and a proven ability to win despite shuffling the team. Australia, by contrast, go into this one full of confidence after their unbeaten run through the middle of the year, and with home advantage this time as well as the belief from that famous win last year, an upset is not out of the question. Even so, I think South Africa have more than enough quality across the park to cover the handicap here, even with such a heavily rotated line-up.
Suggested bet: Handicap, South Africa [-7.5] at 1.87.
I’m expecting Australia to make a fast start, while there is no doubt that South Africa’s strength lies on the bench.
A market I always enjoy is the first try scorer, and Max Jorgensen is one of those players with genuine X-factor. I can see him exposing South Africa out wide and sliding in for the opening try.
Suggested bet: Max Jorgensen first try scorer at 15.00
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