The second Test of the series is upon us this weekend, with South Africa hosting New Zealand in Cape Town. After New Zealand’s impressive 33-16 win in the first Test in Johannesburg, the All Blacks now hold a 1-0 lead in the four-Test series and South Africa know they cannot afford another loss if they want to keep their hopes of winning the series alive.
There are three Tests still to play, but this weekend’s match already has a knockout feel to it and we take a closer look at some betting options.
Outright Betting Update
Ahead of the second Test, the outright market for the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series remains very tightly packed following New Zealand’s opening-Test win. The bookies now have the draw as the shortest price at 2.60, followed by South Africa at 2.70 and New Zealand at 3.00. With New Zealand leading the series 1-0, everything now hinges on this weekend’s result. A New Zealand win here would guarantee at least a series draw for them, while a South Africa win would level things up and swing the momentum firmly back to the home side.
Click here to bet on Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry outright
South Africa
South Africa’s winning streak came to an end as they suffered what many are calling a shock defeat to New Zealand last weekend in Johannesburg. After getting off to a strong start, they were not able to keep up with New Zealand in the final 30 minutes and ended up losing 33-16.
That was their first loss in over a year, with their last defeat coming back in September 2025 against New Zealand.
South Africa have made a number of changes to their side, with a number of experienced players coming in. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu moves to the bench while Handre Pollard* starts at flyhalf. Ethan Hooker replaces Cheslin Kolbe on the wing, while Siya Kolisi returns to the lineup at flank alongside Pieter-Steph du Toit.
*there is speculation he may be pulled with a calf injury so keep an eye on team news
Starting XV: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit (c), 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Morne van den Berg, 23 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu.
New Zealand
New Zealand have continued their perfect tour of South Africa so far, beating both the Lions on Tuesday and South Africa last Saturday. They have now won five out of five of their games on tour. The match against South Africa saw them win 33-16, while Tuesday’s encounter was a lot closer, ending 41-35. Tuesday’s game did see them field a completely different side to Saturday, with a bunch of the wider squad getting valuable game time.
New Zealand have named a very similar side to the first Test and will look to carry that momentum straight into Saturday. If they can pull off another win, they will mathematically be unable to lose the series.
Starting XV: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Ardie Savea (c), 7 Luke Jacobson, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Fabian Holland, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 George Bower.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Josh Moorby.
Head-to-Head
Even after last week’s result, South Africa still have the upper hand in the recent head-to-head, having won three of the last five matches between the two sides. Last year the sides met twice in New Zealand, with South Africa winning one 43-10 and New Zealand winning the other 24-17.
Bomb Squad Insurance
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- First Try Scorer.
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Betting and Verdict
South Africa are favourites and are trading at 1.40 while New Zealand are at 3.40. The draw is currently at 26.00, and the handicap is set at South Africa -7.5.
New Zealand were brilliant last weekend, having an answer for everything South Africa threw at them. They showed their best form in the final-quarter of the game, where they scored a stack of points South Africa had no answer for. With the All Blacks having gone through the South African franchise sides leading into the Tests, their entire squad is carrying a ton of momentum, while South Africa have only played two games recently. Although we back South Africa to be much closer to their best this weekend, we think New Zealand can beat the handicap.
Suggested bet: Handicap, New Zealand +7.5 at 1.85
Cape Town’s forecast for this suggests rain is possible and if so conditions will be completely different to what we had in the first Test. The first Test also saw a relatively low total, and Cape Town is traditionally lower scoring than Joburg.
Last week there were just 49 points scored in total, while on two of the previous five occasions South Africa have hosted New Zealand there have been less than 36 points scored. For those reasons, we like the unders in this one.
Suggested bet: Total points under 51.5 at 1.95
Click here for all betting on South Africa v New Zealand match
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
