Eight teams remain as we head into the quarter-finals of the URC, with all four ties shaping up nicely on paper. The three South African sides, Bulls, Stormers and Lions, line up against European opposition this weekend, with home advantage on offer for two of them. We look at all four matches from a betting angle and offer up a bet in each game for consideration.
FRIDAY
Glasgow Warriors v Connacht — Click here to bet
Glasgow finished the regular season top of the table after winning 13 of their 18 matches and arrive at this quarter-final on the back of consecutive wins, 26-22 away to Ulster and 40-17 at home against Cardiff.
Connacht have been in remarkable URC form, winning eight of their last nine matches. Their only loss in that run came against the Lions in Johannesburg last month, a 33-21 defeat, and they bounced back two weekends ago by hammering Edinburgh 26-5 away from home.
Head-to-Head
Glasgow have won three of the last five meetings, with Connacht winning the other two, however, Connacht won the most recent encounter, 15-10 at home earlier this season. The last time Glasgow hosted this fixture they won by just three, 22-19.
Betting and Verdict
Glasgow are at 1.21 while Connacht are out at 5.25 with the draw 31.00.
The handicap is set at Glasgow -11.5.
Connacht have been incredible all season and look genuinely dangerous on the road. The last time they played Glasgow in Scotland they lost by just three points, and they showed in their final regular-season trip to Edinburgh that they can win on Scottish soil. With that in mind, I don’t think Glasgow will be able to cover the handicap.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Connacht [+11.5] at 1.91
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SATURDAY
Bulls v Munster — Click here to bet
The Bulls have been dangerous at the tail end of the season, winning their last four matches in a row. Their last two saw them produce dominant displays at Loftus, putting Benetton away 45-19 and then hammering Zebre 54-19.
Munster have also had a strong end to the regular season, winning three of their last four with their only slip-up coming against the in-form Connacht. They come into the weekend off the back of a 24-17 win over the Lions at home.
Head-to-Head
The Bulls have won three of the last five encounters, including the most recent two, 34-31 at home and 13-16 in Ireland. However, across those last five matches the Bulls have not beaten Munster by more than five points, and the Irish side have also shown they can pull off a win at Loftus.
Betting and Verdict
The Bulls are at 1.18 while Munster are out at 6.00 and the draw at 29.00.
The handicap is set at Bulls -14.5
Munster always manage to make life difficult for the Bulls, even when the contest is in Pretoria, and with both sides arriving in strong form I think we are in for a close encounter. The Bulls should win but covering a 14.5-point handicap looks a tall order.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Munster [+14.5] at 1.87.
Stormers v Cardiff — Click here to bet
After the unbelievable start the Stormers got off to at the beginning of the season, they slowed down considerably in the second-half and ultimately finished third on the table with 12 wins from 18 matches. They have won only two of their last five, with one draw and two losses, the most recent of those a 22-16 defeat away from home to Cardiff in the final round.
Cardiff finished 6th on the table after a strong finish to the regular season, winning three of their last five, with their most recent result being the 22-16 win over the Stormers two weeks ago.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head between these two sides is almost always decided by home-ground advantage. In the last five meetings neither side has been able to win away, with Cardiff taking three of those at home and the Stormers the other two. The last time the sides met in Cape Town the Stormers won 34-24.
Betting and Verdict
The Stormers are at 1.11 while Cardiff are out at 8.00 and the draw trading at 36.00.
The handicap is set at Stormers -15.5.
The Stormers have been strong at home this season, losing just twice and routinely delivering high-scoring performances. Their last home match saw them put 48 points on table-topping Glasgow (they were missing players) in a 48-12 thumping, and on that evidence, I think they should be able to cover the handicap against Cardiff back in Cape Town.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Stormers [-15.5] at 1.91.
Leinster v Lions — Click here to bet
Leinster are coming off the back of a disappointing thrashing in the Champions Cup final last weekend, where they lost 19-41 to Bordeaux. Before that, however, they had won their previous three matches, beating the Ospreys, Lions and Toulonnais, and they remain unbeaten across their last 12 home games.
The Lions, for their part, were on a solid run of form, winning six in a row, before they headed to Ireland for their last two regular-season matches, where they came up short on both occasions, losing 31-7 to Leinster and 24-17 to Munster.
Head-to-Head
The Lions have beaten Leinster just once in the last five head-to-head meetings, with that solitary win coming in Johannesburg. Leinster’s last two results against the Lions saw them win 31-7 and 24-6, both at home.
Betting and Verdict
Leinster are at 1.12 while the Lions are out at 7.25 with the draw 41.00.
The handicap is set at Leinster -15.5 at 1.95.
Leinster have been able to cover the handicap in each of their last two games against the Lions, and after last weekend’s disappointing result in the Champions Cup Final, I expect them to bounce back hard as they set about defending their URC title.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Leinster [-15.5] at 1.95.
Click here for betting on all the weekend’s URC matches
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
