Stage 12 of the 2026 Tour de France takes the riders 179.1 kilometres from the Circuit Nevers Magny-Cours to Chalon-sur-Saône. Although the route contains three Category 4 climbs, it is another day that should favour the sprinters, with only a handful of opportunities for attackers to upset the expected bunch finish.
Stage 11 Review
As expected, we got a bunch sprint on Stage 11.
After some lively early racing, a four-man breakaway established itself but was never allowed too much freedom, with the sprinters’ teams controlling proceedings throughout the day.
Tim Merlier started a heavy favourite but was unable to contest the finish after losing position in the closing kilometres.
Instead, it was Søren Wærenskjold of Uno-X Mobility who produced a perfectly timed sprint, holding off the fast-finishing Olav Kooij and Jasper Philipsen to claim an impressive victory.
Classification Update – click here to bet
There were no changes in the general classification.
Tadej Pogačar continues to lead the Tour by more than three and a half minutes over Jonas Vingegaard, and the outright betting remains heavily in his favour.
Tour Winner Betting
- Tadej Pogačar – 1.04
- Jonas Vingegaard – 13.00
- Paul Seixas – 41.00
The Team Classification also remained unchanged.
Lidl-Trek continue to lead UAE Team Emirates XRG by 24 minutes and 18 seconds, with the bookmakers making it a virtual two-horse race.
Team Classification Betting
- Lidl-Trek – 1.65
- UAE Team Emirates XRG – 2.25
- Team Visma | Lease a Bike – 19.00
There was movement in the Green Jersey standings with Tim Merlier falling to 4th and Mads Pedersen strengthening his grip on the jersey.
Current standings:
- Mads Pedersen – 317 points
- Biniam Girmay – 272 points
- Jasper Philipsen – 255 points
- Tim Merlier – 223 points
Green Jersey Betting
- Mads Pedersen – 1.28
- Biniam Girmay – 7.00
- Jasper Philipsen – 6.00
- Tim Merlier – 51.00
- Max Kanter – 51.00
Stage 11 offered no climbing of significance, so there was no movement in the King of the Mountains competition.
Mountains Classification Betting
- Tadej Pogačar – 1.50
- Richard Carapaz – 3.25
- Valentin Paret-Peintre – 15.00
- Lenny Martinez – 15.00
- Tom Pidcock – 23.00
- Jonas Vingegaard – 29.00
Stage 12 Profile
While this stage is not completely flat, it is unlikely to prove difficult enough to prevent another sprint finish.
The opening 70 kilometres are almost entirely flat, giving the breakaway specialists every opportunity to establish themselves before the race settles into a steady rhythm.
The intermediate sprint arrives after 45.8 kilometres, making it another key day in the battle for the Green Jersey. Expect Lidl-Trek and the other sprint teams to be fully committed to positioning their leaders for maximum points.
The first classified climb, the Côte de Mont, comes after 76.5 kilometres and measures 2.0 kilometres at 4.0%. Shortly afterwards comes the Côte de Cuzy, another Category 4 climb of 2.4 kilometres at 4.5%.
Neither ascent is especially difficult, but they should ensure the breakaway cannot relax, while also giving the stronger sprinters an opportunity to put pressure on some of their rivals if the pace is high.
Following those climbs the terrain briefly eases before the riders head towards the final obstacle of the day, the Côte de Montagny-lès-Buxy, a 2.6-kilometre Category 4 climb averaging 4.3%. Importantly, the summit comes with around 20 kilometres remaining, leaving plenty of time for dropped riders to regain contact before the finish in Chalon-sur-Saône.
The final kilometres are predominantly flat and fast, which should allow the sprint trains to organise themselves for another high-speed bunch finish.
What to Expect?
I expect a lively battle to get into the breakaway before a small, controllable group eventually goes clear.
With another clear sprint opportunity on offer, the major sprint teams should have little hesitation in keeping the escapees within reach.
The three Category 4 climbs may briefly stretch the peloton, particularly the final ascent with only 20 kilometres remaining, but none are difficult enough to seriously trouble the stronger sprinters.
Everything points towards another bunch sprint.
Stage 12 Betting – click here to bet
Stage Winner Odds
- Tim Merlier – 2.00
- Olav Kooij – 5.00
- Jasper Philipsen – 6.00
- Biniam Girmay – 15.00
- Søren Wærenskjold – 15.00
- Max Kanter – 19.00
Verdict
Tim Merlier remains the fastest pure sprinter in the race, but he has not looked like a rider in peak condition. On several occasions he has struggled to stay in touch over relatively modest climbs before recovering for the finish, and that raises enough of a question at short odds.
Jasper Philipsen, meanwhile, appears to be riding himself into form. He finished strongly for third on Stage 11 after another well-executed lead-out, and this slightly more demanding profile could play into his hands.
With the added security of the World Sports Betting money-back promotion should he finish second, he looks the value play.
Suggested Bet: Jasper Philipsen to win Stage 12 at 6.00.
Tour de France 2026 – Stage Winner Money Back Promotion
Back any rider to win any stage of the 2026 Tour de France, and if your selection finishes 2nd in that stage, World Sports Betting will refund your stake in World Coins, up to R5,000!
Promotion Details
- Promotion period: 4 July – 26 July 2026
- Valid on pre-match single (straight) win bets only
- Bets must be placed before the start of each stage
- Refunds are paid in World Coins
- Maximum refund: R5,000 per account
- Only real money bets qualify (free bets excluded)
- Only one qualifying refund per bet
- Cash-out bets do not qualify
- World Coins are subject to the standard World Sports Betting Free Bet Terms & Conditions
- Accounts must be verified and in good standing
How to Claim
Simply email promotions@wsb.co.za with Subject ‘TDF Stage’ to claim your refund within 72 hours of the stage finishing.
Disclaimer: Prices were correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
