The 2026 Tour de France concludes in Paris on Sunday, but this year’s finale will be very different to the traditional procession we’ve become accustomed to. Due to the devastating wildfires currently affecting parts of France, particularly the Gironde region, organisers have been forced to shorten the stage and alter the schedule, with security resources redeployed to assist emergency services.
Instead of the usual 133-kilometre route from the outskirts of Paris, the riders will contest an 88.7-kilometre stage almost entirely on the Champs-Élysées circuit. The inclusion of three ascents of the Côte de la Butte Montmartre once again promises an aggressive and unpredictable finale rather than a routine bunch sprint.
With Tadej Pogacar’s yellow jersey secure and every other classification effectively decided, all eyes turn to one final stage victory in what should be another spectacular finish to this year’s Tour.
Stage 20 Review
Stage 20 was absolutely brutal and produced massive time gaps by the finish. I expected the breakaway to win, and in the end Richard Carapaz just managed to hold off Remco Evenepoel by 26 seconds to take a memorable mountain victory.
Sepp Kuss looked to have the stage under control before suffering two crashes in the run-in to the final climb and eventually had to settle for third place.
Pogacar, however, never looked under any pressure. I have no doubt he could have won the stage had he wanted to, but instead he rode a perfect domestique role for Isaac Del Toro, helping to distance Paul Seixas and virtually secure Del Toro’s podium place and white jersey. Del Toro finished fifth, followed by the remainder of the general classification contenders.
Classification Update
All of the classifications are now effectively decided heading into Paris.
Yellow Jersey
Tadej Pogacar will win his fifth Tour de France, taking a lead of 6 minutes 26 seconds over Remco Evenepoel into the final stage.
Green Jersey
Mads Pedersen has wrapped up the points competition and leads Jasper Philipsen by 82 points.
King of the Mountains
Richard Carapaz secured the polka dot jersey in emphatic fashion and now leads Pogacar by 56 points, with Valentin Paret-Peintre dropping away over the closing mountain stages.
Young Rider
Isaac Del Toro will take home the white jersey, holding an advantage of 2 minutes 14 seconds over Paul Seixas.
Team Classification
Lidl-Trek have dominated the competition and lead UAE Team Emirates by 36 minutes 57 seconds.
Stage 21 Profile
The final stage has been significantly shortened from 133 kilometres to just 88.7 kilometres following the route changes announced by organisers.
The riders will start directly in Paris before completing multiple laps of the Champs-Élysées circuit. The major addition once again is the Côte de la Butte Montmartre, a punchy 1-kilometre climb averaging 6.5%, which will be climbed three times during the closing circuits.
Unlike the traditional flat run-in for the sprinters, the repeated climbs should gradually reduce the size of the lead group before the final 10 kilometres back towards the Champs-Élysées finish.
What to Expect?
Last year’s inclusion of the three ascents of Montmartre produced one of the most entertaining final stages in recent memory. Wet conditions added to the drama, and Wout van Aert eventually managed to pull clear of Tadej Pogacar on the final climb before holding on to victory.
Dry conditions are expected this year, but there is one significant difference. Last year the summit came around six kilometres from the finish, whereas this year it is closer to ten kilometres from the line. That extra distance could give the stronger sprinters a better opportunity to regain contact before the finish.
It will also be interesting to see how the riders approach the opening kilometres. Traditionally the final stage begins with a lengthy neutralised celebration and champagne for the yellow jersey winner. With the race now effectively starting on the Champs-Élysées circuit, there may be little opportunity for those celebrations before the racing begins.
Mathieu van der Poel starts deserved favourite. Had Jasper Philipsen still been fighting for the green jersey, Van der Poel may well have been required to ride in support of his teammate. With that competition already decided, however, Alpecin-Deceuninck can fully commit to Van der Poel’s own chances with Philipsen option 2 if it comes back together.
Expect Alpecin-Deceuninck, Lidl-Trek and UAE Team Emirates to set a fierce tempo over each ascent of Montmartre. I suspect the decisive selection will only come on the final climb, where the likes of Pogacar, Van der Poel and Mads Pedersen could force a small group clear. Whether the remaining sprinters can regain contact will largely depend on how many teammates they still have around them.
Stage 21 Betting
- Mathieu van der Poel – 2.35
- Tadej Pogacar – 4.25
- Mads Pedersen – 5.50
- Remco Evenepoel – 10.00
- Jasper Philipsen – 12.00
- Quinn Simmons – 29.00
- Olav Kooij – 29.00
- Filippo Ganna – 34.00
- Biniam Girmay – 41.00
Disclaimer: Odds were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.
Tour de France 2026 – Stage Winner Money Back Promotion
Back any rider to win any stage of the 2026 Tour de France, and if your selection finishes 2nd in that stage, World Sports Betting will refund your stake in World Coins, up to R5,000!
Promotion Details
- Promotion period: 4 July – 26 July 2026
- Valid on pre-match single (straight) win bets only
- Bets must be placed before the start of each stage
- Refunds are paid in World Coins
- Maximum refund: R5,000 per account
- Only real money bets qualify (free bets excluded)
- Only one qualifying refund per bet
- Cash-out bets do not qualify
- World Coins are subject to the standard World Sports Betting Free Bet Terms & Conditions
- Accounts must be verified and in good standing
How to Claim
Simply email promotions@wsb.co.za with Subject ‘TDF Stage’ to claim your refund within 72 hours of the stage finishing.
Verdict
The betting market looks about right.
Mathieu van der Poel deserves favouritism, but I’m going to side with Tadej Pogacar at 4.25.
He has looked completely in control throughout the final week and, at times on Stage 20, almost appeared to be riding well within himself while helping Del Toro secure the podium. Had he wanted to, I believe he could have bridged across to Carapaz and taken another stage victory.
Pogacar said afterwards that he would look for an opportunity in Paris but wouldn’t take unnecessary risks. Given how aggressively he raced this finish last year, I’m not convinced he’ll be able to resist having one final crack at ending another remarkable Tour with a stage win.
Bet: Tadej Pogacar to win Stage 21 at 4.25.
Disclaimer: Prices were correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
