Stage 18 of the 2026 Tour de France takes the riders 185.2 kilometres from Voiron to Orcières-Merlette. While there is plenty of climbing throughout the day, the profile is not quite selective enough to guarantee a major general classification battle, making it look tailor-made for a high-quality breakaway.
Stage 17 Review
Our 6.50 selection, Jasper Philipsen, delivered in style, winning a reduced sprint ahead of previous stage winner Mauro Schmid, with Olav Kooij taking third.
As expected, the stage was anything but straightforward. There was a huge battle to establish the breakaway, and although several attacks looked promising, it was well into the stage before the peloton finally allowed a move to go clear.
Mads Pedersen was aggressive throughout and picked up maximum points at the intermediate sprint. However, thanks largely to another outstanding lead-out from Mathieu van der Poel, Philipsen fought back to claim the stage victory and dramatically close the gap in the Green Jersey competition.
Classification Update
Tadej Pogačar remains firmly in control of the Tour de France, leading Remco Evenepoel by 4 minutes and 32 seconds. He is now virtually unbackable at 1.01 to win the yellow jersey.
The Green Jersey battle has suddenly become one of the stories of the race. Mads Pedersen now leads Jasper Philipsen by just seven points, and this competition should go all the way to the final stage.
Pedersen remains favourite at 1.45, while Philipsen has shortened to 2.75.
Pogačar continues to lead the King of the Mountains classification by 24 points over Valentin Paret-Peintre. He remains a 1.70 favourite, with Richard Carapaz at 4.00 and Paret-Peintre at 4.50.
Lidl-Trek have re-established a commanding lead in the Team Classification and now head UAE Team Emirates XRG by 18 minutes and 10 seconds. The betting has swung dramatically, with Lidl-Trek (our 12.00 pre race pick) now 1.20 favourites, while UAE have drifted to 4.50, having seemingly shifted their focus away from the competition, possibly as a result of Adam Yates’ illness and troubles on Stage 17.
One jersey we haven’t spoken about enough during these previews is the Young Rider Classification, where there is still a genuine contest. Isaac del Toro leads Paul Seixas by just 20 seconds, with Juan Ayuso another 2 minutes and 11 seconds behind in third. Del Toro is 1.65 to hold onto the white jersey, while Seixas is priced at 2.25.
Stage 18 Profile
Although officially a mountain stage, the profile is spread across the day rather than featuring one brutal alpine showdown.
After around 20 kilometres of relatively flat racing, the riders tackle the Category 1 Côte d’Engins, measuring 11.4 kilometres at 5.4%. This climb should ensure another fierce battle to establish the day’s breakaway.
The terrain then remains relentlessly undulating with the Category 2 Côte de Montvernard (9.7 km at 5%), followed later by the Category 3 Côte des Terrasses (3.4 km at 6.6%) and Category 3 Côte de Saint-Léger-les-Mélèzes (2.5 km at 6.9%).
The intermediate sprint comes relatively late in the stage after 134.2 kilometres, before the riders tackle the final ascent to Orcières-Merlette, a Category 1 climb of 7.1 kilometres at 6.7%.
While the summit finish is certainly difficult enough to reward the strongest climbers, it is not so selective that the general classification teams will necessarily want to control the race throughout the day.
What to Expect
This has all the hallmarks of a classic breakaway stage.
The opening 20 kilometres should be absolutely frantic as riders fight for position before the first major climb. I expect the decisive move to finally establish itself on the Category 1 ascent, with a group of quality climbers working together over the remainder of the day.
If Tadej Pogačar wanted to win this stage, he almost certainly could. However, he is beginning to look as though the effort of three weeks of racing is catching up with him, mentally at any rate, and with Adam Yates also struggling, I wouldn’t be surprised if UAE Team Emirates simply allow the break to go.
I also suspect Pogačar would not be too disappointed if somebody else began taking significant points in the King of the Mountains competition, as I think he is almost embarrassed to wear it given he has not targeted it.
It will also be fascinating to see whether Mads Pedersen has any interest in contesting the intermediate sprint. Given the amount of climbing before it, I suspect the breakaway will ultimately sweep up those valuable points.
Stage 18 Betting- click here to bet
- Richard Carapaz – 4.50
- Tadej Pogačar – 5.00
- Tobias Halland Johannessen – 13.00
- Isaac del Toro – 15.00
- Valentin Paret-Peintre – 15.00
- Quinn Simmons – 15.00
- Sepp Kuss – 15.00
- Thymen Arensman – 17.00
Verdict
The bookmakers have correctly identified Richard Carapaz as the man to beat, but there is very little value at the top of the market.
Instead, I’m looking a little further down the betting.
With Jonas Vingegaard now out of the race, Visma | Lease a Bike have the freedom to race aggressively for stage victories. They showed intent on stage 17 and Davide Piganzoli will surely try and infiltrate the breakaway.
A summit finish like Orcières-Merlette should suit him well. If he makes the decisive break, I think he has an outstanding chance of pulling off the win.
Suggested Bet: Davide Piganzoli to win Stage 18 at 19.00.
Tour de France 2026 – Stage Winner Money Back Promotion
Back any rider to win any stage of the 2026 Tour de France, and if your selection finishes 2nd in that stage, World Sports Betting will refund your stake in World Coins, up to R5,000!
Promotion Details
- Promotion period: 4 July – 26 July 2026
- Valid on pre-match single (straight) win bets only
- Bets must be placed before the start of each stage
- Refunds are paid in World Coins
- Maximum refund: R5,000 per account
- Only real money bets qualify (free bets excluded)
- Only one qualifying refund per bet
- Cash-out bets do not qualify
- World Coins are subject to the standard World Sports Betting Free Bet Terms & Conditions
- Accounts must be verified and in good standing
How to Claim
Simply email promotions@wsb.co.za with Subject ‘TDF Stage’ to claim your refund within 72 hours of the stage finishing.
Disclaimer: Prices were correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
