Stage 16 of the 2026 Tour de France is a 26.1-kilometre individual time trial from Évian-les-Bains to Thonon-les-Bains. Unlike a traditional flat time trial, this one features a significant Category 2 climb early in the route, ensuring it will suit the stronger all-round riders rather than the pure specialists.
Stage 15 Review
Stage 15 was won by Remco Evenepoel, who held off Tadej Pogačar into second place, with Isaac del Toro finishing third after the final climb.
It was a fascinating and dramatic stage. When our 51.00 selection, Adam Yates, made the breakaway, things were looking very promising. Unfortunately, Team Visma | Lease a Bike chose to ride hard in pursuit of the stage, keeping the escapees under constant pressure, only for team leader Jonas Vingegaard to suffer the misfortune of crashing out of the Tour.
That briefly gave the break renewed hope as the peloton regrouped, but once the favourites hit the final climb, UAE Team Emirates XRG took control. Pogačar appeared willing to lead Isaac del Toro to victory, but in doing so opened the door for a powerful Remco Evenepoel ride, with the Belgian producing a superb finish to take the stage.
Classification Update
Pogačar now leads Remco Evenepoel by five minutes, with Isaac del Toro another 58 seconds behind in third. There is still less than two minutes separating second and sixth place, so the battle for the podium remains very much alive.
Pogačar is now just 1.03 to win the Tour.
Mads Pedersen surrendered a few more points to Jasper Philipsen at the intermediate sprint but still holds a healthy 31-point advantage heading into the final week. Pedersen is 1.20 to win the Green Jersey, with Jasper Philipsen at 5.00 and Biniam Girmay at 15.00.
Pogačar continues to wear the King of the Mountains jersey and now leads Valentin Paret-Peintre by 22 points, with Richard Carapaz another six points behind in third. With plenty of climbing still to come, the competition remains far from settled. Pogačar is 1.60 to win the classification, with Carapaz at 4.00 and Paret-Peintre at 4.50.
In the Team Classification, UAE Team Emirates XRG have continued to chip away at Lidl-Trek’s advantage. The gap is now down to just 3 minutes and 19 seconds, with UAE priced at 1.20 to win the competition.
Stage 16 Profile
Although only 26.1 kilometres long, this is far from a conventional flat individual time trial.
The opening kilometres are gently uphill before the riders begin the Category 2 Côte de Larringes, a climb measuring 9.7 kilometres at an average gradient of 4.3%. While not especially steep, it is long enough to favour the climbers and powerful all-rounders over the pure time trial specialists.
From the summit there is a long, technical descent into Thonon-les-Bains before a fast and relatively flat run to the finish. Riders will need to carefully balance their effort, ensuring they have enough left after the climb to maximise their speed over the closing kilometres.
Equipment choice could also become a talking point, with teams needing to decide whether to prioritise climbing efficiency or aerodynamic advantage for the descent and flat finish.
What to Expect
Being an individual time trial, it will simply be full gas from start to finish.
The long Category 2 climb immediately makes this a different challenge to a traditional race against the clock, and that is reflected in the betting. The climb appears just long enough to count against the likes of Filippo Ganna, despite his outstanding time trial pedigree.
Finding betting value in time trials is never easy. Remco Evenepoel deserves to head the market, while Pogačar has shown repeatedly during this Tour that he is riding at an exceptional level and will be motivated to underline his dominance once again.
That said, I have been impressed by Filippo Ganna throughout this Tour. He climbed extremely well in the opening team time trial, albeit over a much shorter ascent, and with fewer accumulated efforts than the general classification contenders, he could be fresher than many of his rivals.
Stage 16 Betting – click here to bet
- Remco Evenepoel – 1.44
- Tadej Pogačar – 2.90
- Filippo Ganna – 15.00
- Paul Seixas – 51.00
- Joshua Tarling – 51.00
- Juan Ayuso – 101.00
- Michael Matthews – 201.00
- Jai Hindley – 201.00
Verdict
It is difficult to look beyond Remco Evenepoel and Tadej Pogačar, who appear the two outstanding candidates for victory on this course.
However, at the prices, I think the value lies further down the market. The opening climb gives Filippo Ganna a tougher assignment than a flat time trial, but he has looked fresh throughout the Tour and has climbed better than many expected.
If he can limit his losses on the ascent, his power on the descent and flat run to the finish could see him produce an upset.
Suggested Bets
- Filippo Ganna to win Stage 16 at 15.00
- Filippo Ganna Top 3 at 2.10
Tour de France 2026 – Stage Winner Money Back Promotion
Back any rider to win any stage of the 2026 Tour de France, and if your selection finishes 2nd in that stage, World Sports Betting will refund your stake in World Coins, up to R5,000!
Promotion Details
- Promotion period: 4 July – 26 July 2026
- Valid on pre-match single (straight) win bets only
- Bets must be placed before the start of each stage
- Refunds are paid in World Coins
- Maximum refund: R5,000 per account
- Only real money bets qualify (free bets excluded)
- Only one qualifying refund per bet
- Cash-out bets do not qualify
- World Coins are subject to the standard World Sports Betting Free Bet Terms & Conditions
- Accounts must be verified and in good standing
How to Claim
Simply email promotions@wsb.co.za with Subject ‘TDF Stage’ to claim your refund within 72 hours of the stage finishing.
Disclaimer: Prices were correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
