Group D of the FIFA World Cup will be finalised on Friday morning, South African time with both fixtures kicking off at 04:00. Paraguay take on Australia, while Turkiye face the USA and we look at both matches from a betting angle.
Group D Update
The USA sit top of Group D with six points after winning both of their opening matches and irrespective of results in the final round of games they cannot be toppled.
Australia occupy second place on three points, while Paraguay are also on three points heading into the final round of fixtures.
Turkiye remain bottom of the group without a point and have already been eliminated after defeats in both of their matches.
Australia and Paraguay are locked in a direct battle for qualification, with the winner guaranteed to secure a place in the Round of 32, while the loser will need to wait to see if they qualify as one of the 8 best 3rd place finishers.
A draw will also be enough for Australia due to their stronger goal difference, while Paraguay will also be likely to progress with a draw.
Paraguay vs Australia
Paraguay began their campaign with a disappointing 4-1 defeat against the USA. They struggled defensively throughout the contest and found themselves chasing the game for long periods, although they did manage to get on the scoresheet.
They responded in impressive fashion in Round 2 by securing a narrow 1-0 victory over Turkiye. Matias Galarza scored the decisive goal inside the opening few minutes and Paraguay kept the Turkish side out thereafter to move onto three points and keep their qualification hopes intact.
Australia started their World Cup run with an impressive 2-0 victory over Turkiye. The side produced a disciplined performance and took full advantage of their opportunities to claim a valuable triumph in their first group fixture as heavy underdogs.
Their second outing ended in a 2-0 defeat against the USA. Australia fell behind early through a Cameron Burgess own goal before Alex Freeman doubled the USA’s advantage before half-time, leaving Australia on three points heading into this crucial final match.
Head-to-Head
Australia are unbeaten in the previous three meetings between the nations, recording two victories and one draw. Their most recent encounter ended in a 1-0 win for Australia during an International Friendly in 2010.
Betting – Click here to bet
Paraguay 2.90
Draw 2.30
Australia 4.00
Verdict
This should be a tight and tense encounter with both sides still fighting for qualification. Paraguay showed character to bounce back from their opening defeat, while Australia have already proven they can handle pressure after beating Turkiye in Round 1. With so much at stake and a draw potentially suiting both sides, I am expecting this to develop into a cautious contest where chances are limited.
BET: Draw at 2.30
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Turkiye vs USA
Turkiye have endured a poor World Cup stint and have already been eliminated after losing both of their group stage matches. They began with a 2-0 defeat against Australia where they failed to find the breakthrough and struggled to make their attacking possession count.
Their second match brought further frustration as they suffered a 1-0 defeat against Paraguay. Paraguay struck just after the first whistle sounded and Turkiye were unable to respond, leaving them without a goal and without a point heading into the final group stage fixture.
USA have made an excellent start to their home World Cup campaign and sit top of the group with maximum points. They opened with a commanding 4-1 victory over Paraguay, producing an impressive attacking display to take early control of the log.
They followed that up with a composed 2-0 victory over Australia. USA went ahead through an own goal from Australia before Alex Freeman added a second before the break, allowing them to manage the contest comfortably and move onto six points.
Head-to-Head
The previous five meetings between the nations have been evenly balanced, with Turkiye and the USA both recording two victories alongside one draw. Their most recent clash ended in a 2-1 victory for Turkiye during an International Friendly in 2025.
Betting – Click here to bet
Turkiye 3.65
Draw 4.00
USA 1.98
Verdict
Turkiye have struggled badly in the tournament, and their lack of goals is a major concern heading into a fixture against the group leaders. The USA have looked sharp and organised, having scored six goals across their opening two matches. Top spot may be secured but with a home crowd behind them , the hosts should remain motivated, and it is hard to look past them punishing a vulnerable Turkiye side here.
BET: USA to win at 1.98
Note: All prices are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
