We are down to the final four in this year’s Super Rugby Pacific season, with two semi-finals on the menu this weekend. The second-seeded Chiefs welcome the Crusaders to Hamilton on Friday in what shapes up as a fascinating rematch between two of New Zealand rugby’s giants, while the top-seeded Hurricanes host the Blues on Saturday. With both home sides arriving as favourites, the question is whether either of the away teams can pull off the upset and book their place in next weekend’s final. We look at both matches from a betting angle and lay down a few betsfor your consideration.
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The Hurricanes are the rightful favourites to take home the title at 1.83 after their dominant regular season and 66-12 demolition of the Brumbies in the qualifying finals. The Chiefs are tucked in behind them at 3.25, with the Crusaders next at 5.50 after a smart run at the backend of the season. The Blues sit as the outsiders of the four at 19.00 after coming in via the highest-ranked-loser route. With the top three priced fairly close together and Crusaders showing real form at the back end of the season, this title race is far from a done deal.
Hurricanes 1.83
Chiefs 3.25
Crusaders 5.50
Blues 19.00
FRIDAY
Chiefs v Crusaders — Click here to bet
The Chiefs booked their place in the semis with a comfortable 46-24 home win over the Reds in last weekend’s qualifying final. Their four matches before that read: a 59-34 home win over the Blues, a 36-32 defeat away to the Crusaders, a 42-12 home win over the Highlanders, and a 31-21 away win over the Reds.
The Crusaders, meanwhile, advanced past the Blues with a clinical 52-31 victory at home in their own qualifying final. Their four results before that were a 47-14 home win over the Hurricanes, a 36-32 home win over the Chiefs, a 36-20 home win over the Blues, and a 38-31 away defeat to the Hurricanes.
Head-to-head
The Crusaders have actually won the last three meetings between the sides, two at home and one on the road. The most recent at home was a 36-32 result, with the most recent away encounter ending 33-43. The Chiefs’ last wins in this fixture came back in 2025, when they won 35-19 away from home and 49-24 at home.
Betting and Verdict
The Chiefs are at 1.59 while the Crusaders are out at 2.60 with the draw 26.00. The handicap is set at Chiefs -4.5.
Both teams arrive in strong form, but based on the head-to-head record, three wins in a row for the Crusaders, including that 36-32 victory just a handful of rounds ago, I think the Crusaders may well be able to pull off the upset in Hamilton this weekend.
Suggested Bet: Crusaders to win at 2.60
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SATURDAY
Hurricanes v Blues — Click here to bet
The Hurricanes booked their place in the semis with a brutal 66-12 hammering of the Brumbies in last weekend’s qualifying final. Their four matches before that read: a 47-14 defeat away to the Crusaders (where they fielded a heavily rotated side having already secured top spot), a 45-28 home win over the Highlanders, a 47-24 away win over the Blues, and a 50-17 away thrashing of Moana Pasifika.
The Blues, by contrast, come into this weekend on the back of four straight defeats: a 52-31 loss to the Crusaders away in the qualifying final, a 59-34 defeat to the Chiefs away from home, a 47-24 home loss to the Hurricanes, and a 36-20 away defeat to the Crusaders. Their last win came back at the start of May, a 45-19 home result over Moana Pasifika.
Head-to-head
The Hurricanes have won the last two encounters between the sides, a 24-47 result away to the Blues and a 42-19 win at home. The Blues had won the three matches before that, but the Hurricanes have firmly seized control of the rivalry over the last 12 months.
Betting and Verdict
The Hurricanes are at 1.11 while the Blues are out at 7.75 with the draw 46.00. The handicap is set at Hurricanes -17.5.
The Hurricanes have been in stunning form all season, while the Blues are heading in the opposite direction having now lost their last four on the bounce. The Hurricanes have also comfortably covered the handicap in both of the most recent meetings between the sides, and after last weekend’s 66-12 hammering of the Brumbies, I think they will be able to do so again.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Hurricanes [-17.5] at 1.93
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
