The Nations Championship rolls into its second week of matches this weekend with a mouth-watering slate of fixtures across both hemispheres. New Zealand host Italy, Australia welcome France, Japan take on Ireland, England travel to Fiji and Wales head to Argentina, plenty for us to unpack and plenty of value to pick out across the markets.
The South Africa v Scotland match is previewed here
New Zealand v Italy — Click here to bet
New Zealand kicked off their campaign with a hard-fought 34-32 win against France, managing to hold onto the lead come the end of the match. Italy, on the other hand, could not start with a win of their own and suffered a disappointing 27-10 loss to Japan.
Head-to-Head
Italy have played New Zealand 17 times in their history and are yet to beat them. The last time the two sides met was back in 2024 in Italy, where New Zealand ran out 29-11 winners. The last time Italy played in New Zealand was back in 2009, when they lost 27-6 .
Betting and Verdict
New Zealand are favourites to win at 1.008 with Italy at 23.00. The draw is at 67.00. The handicap is New Zealand -32.5.
Italy looked strong in the Six Nations and pulled off a few upsets, however, after their heavy defeat to Japan we don’t think we can expect much from them here. New Zealand are off the back of a solid win and we know what they can do to weaker sides at home.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, New Zealand [-32.5] at 1.91
Australia v France — Click here to bet
Australia suffered a disappointing 31-33 loss to Ireland last weekend and have now lost their last five in a row. France are also off the back of a narrow loss, going down to New Zealand in a thriller that ended 34-32.
Head-to-Head
France have had the upper hand in the H2H over recent years, winning four of the last five encounters. The last time the sides met was in Paris, where France won 48-33, while the last time they met in Australia, the Wallabies came out on top 33-30.
Betting and Verdict
France at 1.38, Australia at 3.50 and draw at 22.00. The handicap is France -8.5.
France have been the better side over recent years and the last two encounters have shown exactly that, covering the handicap in both by 15 and 24 points respectively. Up against an Australian side that hasn’t won in a long time, we think they cover it again.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, France [-8.5] at 1.91.
Japan v Ireland — Click here to bet
Japan had a brilliant start last weekend as they hosted a strong Italy side coming off the back of a decent Six Nations and were able to beat them comfortably with the match ending 27-10. Ireland got away narrowly against Australia as they beat them 33-31 to record their fifth win in a row.
Head-to-Head
Ireland have beaten Japan in four of the last five matches between the sides, with Japan’s only win coming in 2019, when they won 19-12 at their home World Cup. The most recent fixture between the two sides saw Ireland run out 41-10 winners at home.
Betting and Verdict
Ireland are at 1.06, Japan 10.00, draw at 56.00. The handicap is Ireland -20.5.
Ireland look to have found solid form again, winning their last five and putting up big results against Scotland and England in the Six Nations. Beating Australia down under in the first game of a tour is no easy feat either. In both of Ireland’s last two games against Japan they have covered the handicap, and we think they do it yet again.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Ireland [-20.5] at 1.91.
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Fiji v England — Click here to bet
Both teams are off the back of losses last week, as Fiji went down 39-24 to Wales and England lost 45-21 to South Africa in Johannesburg. England have now lost their last five in a row, and two heavy defeats will have both sides desperate to bounce back.
Head-to-Head
It has been one-sided in the H2H in recent years, with England winning four of the last five games. The most recent fixture saw England win 38-18, while Fiji’s last win came in 2023 when they claimed a 30-22 victory away from home.
Betting and Verdict
England are at 1.08, Fiji at 10.00 and draw at 46.00. The handicap is England -19.5.
Both sides will be looking to bounce back, however England are on a five-game losing streak and we think Fiji will be ready to take full advantage. At home in front of their own crowd and knowing this England side is well below its best, Fiji have every chance of pushing them all the way, and even if England edge it, the handicap gives us plenty of margin for error.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Fiji [+19.5] at 1.93.
Argentina v Wales — Click here to bet
Argentina suffered a disappointing 38-47 loss to Scotland at home last weekend in their opening game, while Wales were able to pull off a solid 39-24 win over Fiji in Cardiff.
Head-to-Head
Argentina have won three of the last five against Wales, with Wales winning one and the other ending in a draw. The most recent game saw Argentina take a 52-28 win in Cardiff last November.
Betting and Verdict
Argentina are at 1.11, Wales at 7.50 and the draw at 46.00. The handicap is Argentina -17.5
In last week’s preview we mentioned how, when a team coming off terrible form starts to put together some wins, they can quickly find momentum and pull off even bigger results. We think we could see exactly this from Wales this weekend. They are off the back of a brilliant win over Fiji, while Argentina have plenty of unanswered questions after their loss to Scotland. At the odds available, Wales look a very tempting outright pick.
Suggested Bet: Wales to win at 7.50
Click here for betting on all the weekend’s Nations Championship matches
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
