The first Test of the series is upon us this weekend, with South Africa hosting New Zealand in what promises to be one of the biggest rugby matches since the pair met in the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final.
After weeks of warm-up franchise matches on the tour, the series finally reaches its main event, with the two greatest rugby nations in the world set to face off in a hotly anticipated four-Test series.
South Africa go in as favourites off the back of a dominant Nations Championship and a solid win over Argentina, while New Zealand arrive off a perfect tour so far with three wins from three against the top South African franchises. It should be a genuine cracker.
South Africa
South Africa had the perfect Nations Championship, winning all three of their home matches. They beat England 45-21, Scotland 42-28 and then hammered Wales 43-0 in the final round. They then played Argentina two weeks ago in Buenos Aires, where they won the match 17-10 away from home. South Africa have now won 14 of their last 15 matches across all competitions, a run that also includes their win over the Barbarians earlier this year.
South Africa have named a very different side from the team that faced Argentina two weeks ago, with a few players returning from injury while some other big guns come back into the side. The main talking point is Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu returning to the ten jersey after being out for injury for over two months and having looked a bit shaky in Argentina. Pieter-Steph du Toit will captain the side in the absence of Siya Kolisi, while Damian de Allende will earn his 100th cap.
Starting XV: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Grant Williams; 1 Ox Nche, 2 Malcolm Marx, 3 Wilco Louw, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 5 Ruan Nortje, 6 Paul de Villiers, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit (c), 8 Jasper Wiese.
Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Zachary Porthen, 19 Cobus Wiese, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Marco van Staden, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok.
New Zealand
New Zealand have seen solid success in their first three matches of the tour, winning all of them. They beat the Stormers 38-21, hammered the Sharks 54-0 and dismantled the Bulls 50-19 last weekend. They also come into this series having won all three of their Nations Championship games at home earlier this year. They beat France 34-32, followed it up with a 47-17 win over Italy and then closed things out with a 40-21 win over Ireland.
New Zealand have also named an extremely strong side, with three of their very best players coming in for their first games of the tour. Will Jordan will start on the wing, Cam Roigard will be in the nine jersey, and the experienced Ardie Savea will captain the side from the back of the scrum. Hurricanes flyhalf Ruben Love will start at ten, with Damian McKenzie covering the backfield from fullback. The pack also carries a massive amount of experience, with centurion Codie Taylor starting at hooker.
Starting XV: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Ardie Savea (c), 7 Luke Jacobson, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Josh Lord, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 George Bower, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Anton Segner, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Leroy Carter
Head to head
South Africa have the upper hand in recent H2H, winning four of the last five matches between the sides. The two sides met twice last year, with both games taking place in New Zealand. New Zealand won the first 24-17, while South Africa ran away with the second, winning 43-10. The previous year, in 2024, the sides met twice as well, but in South Africa, with South Africa winning both games. The first ended 31-27 while the second ended 18-12.
Betting and Verdict
South Africa are favourites and are trading at 1.45 while New Zealand are at 3.20. The draw is currently at 23.00, and the handicap is set at South Africa -7.5.
Excluding the last match between the two sides, the previous four matches saw points differences of just seven, six, four and one point between the two sides. If there is one thing we know for certain, it is that when it comes to South Africa v New Zealand it is always a tight game. Both teams are coming into this match off the back of brilliant Nations Championships and while we think South Africa may have what it takes to edge the game, but we don’t see them covering the 7.5-point handicap against a New Zealand side who have never shied from a close-fought battle.
Suggested bet: Handicap, New Zealand [+7.5] at 1.85.
Digging into the numbers for our second bet, New Zealand’s defence has been exceptional across their last five matches, conceding a maximum of just 21 points across that stretch, once against Ireland during the Nations Championship and the other against the Stormers on this tour. Even more telling, since 2010 the most points South Africa has ever scored against New Zealand on home soil has been just 31 points across all those meetings. Given how disciplined the All Blacks defence has been on this tour, and the historical trend for tight scorelines whenever these two sides meet in South Africa, we like the value on the unders for the home side’s total.
Suggested bet: South Africa total points under 32.5 at 1.85
Click here for all betting on South Africa v New Zealand match
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
