South Africa host England at Ellis Park in Johannesburg this Saturday in the first match of both sides Nations Championship campaign. We take a look at Saturday’s Test from a betting angle and offer up a couple of suggested bets for consideration.
The World Champions look to pick up where they left off after a stunning finish to last year, while England arrive on the back of a disappointing Six Nations campaign. With home advantage and the Johannesburg altitude on their side, the South Africans go in as heavy favourites, but England have shown they have the game to hurt them.
Nations Championship Format
Given this is the 1st ever Nations Championship the format requires some explanation:
The tournament features the Six Nations sides , namely England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland and Wales and six teams representing the southern hemisphere and Pacific region, being Argentina, Australia, Fiji, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa.
Conferences
Teams are split into Northern and Southern conferences, but rather than playing within their own conference, each nation faces all six teams from the opposite conference once over six rounds. Three matches are played during the July internationals and three more during the November window, with each team hosting three fixtures and playing three away (Fiji will play their home games in the UK).
Points
The standard World Rugby points system applies, with four points for a win, two for a draw, plus bonus points for scoring four or more tries and for losing by seven points or fewer.
Finals Weekend
After six rounds, the top team from each conference will meet in the Nations Championship Final at Twickenham, while every other team will also play a final placement match against the side that finished in the corresponding position in the opposite conference, creating a full Finals Weekend to determine the final rankings from first through to twelfth.
South Africa
South Africa will be looking to start their international season the same way they ended last year. They finished 2025 on an eight-game winning streak, beating Wales, Ireland, Italy and France on their tour of the northern hemisphere. Their home record was equally impressive, with just one defeat across eight home matches in the year and that came against Australia at Ellis Park.
They tuned up for this game with an 80-31 win over the Barbarians in Port Elizabeth two weeks ago.
Coach Rassie Erasmus has named a strong side full of experience. Siya Kolisi captains the side yet again, while Manie Libbok starts at flyhalf, a selection that should point towards a more attacking game plan. The forward pack is packed with the usual class of Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx, Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit.
South Africa: Damian Willemse, Cheslin Kolbe, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Manie Libbok, Grant Williams, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph Du Tpit, Siya Kolisi, Ruan Nortje, Eben Etzebeth, Thomas Du Toit, Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche.
Replacements: Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Gerhard Steenekamp, Zander Fouche, Marco van Staden, Cameron Hanekom, Cobus Reinach, Andre Esterhuizen, Canan Moodie
England
England were one of the most in-form sides in the World heading into the Six Nations earlier this year. They were on a 12-match winning streak before meeting Scotland in round two, where they lost 31-20 at Murrayfield. They were unable to bounce back from that setback and went on to lose to Ireland, Italy and France across their next three matches. They will be looking to reset and rebuild as they kick off their Nations Championship campaign.
Steve Borthwick has also named a strong side for this weekend’s clash, with plenty of experience across the forward pack. The much-talked-about Henry Pollock starts on the bench, and it will be interesting to see whether he can come on and make an impact off the bench.
England: George Furbank, Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, Tommy Freeman, Seb Atkinson, Cadan Murley, Fin Smith, Jack van Poortvliet, Ben Earl, Tom Curry, Ollie Cheesum, Goerge Martin, Alex Coles, Joe Heyes, Jamie George, Ellis Genge.
Replacements: Luke Cowan-Dickie, Beno Obano, Asher Opoku-Fordjour, Charlie Ewels, Guy Pepper, Henry Pollock, Alex Mitchell, Marcus Smith.
Head-to-Head
South Africa have had the upper hand in the head-to-head over recent years, winning four of the last five meetings between the sides. The most recent encounter saw them win 20-29 at Twickenham back in 2024. The last time England beat South Africa was in 2021, when they ran out 27-26 winners at home. The last time England toured South Africa was 2018, when the two sides played a traditional three-match series. South Africa won the first two Tests, 42-39 (at Ellis Park)and 23-12, but England did pick up a consolation win in the third Test, 25-10.
Bomb Squad Insurance
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Qualifying Markets:
- Anytime Try Scorer.
- First Try Scorer.
- Last Try Scorer.
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Betting and Verdict
South Africa are heavy favourites and are trading at 1.10 while England are out at 7.00. The draw is currently at 34.00, and the handicap is set at South Africa -16.5.
It has been a while since South Africa played a top European side in a July Test at home, with the last being Ireland back in 2024. The hosts won the first match of that series 27-20 before falling 24-25 in the second. Last year South Africa lost just one match all year, but the bulk of their wins came against the likes of Italy, Georgia, a poor Argentina and the Barbarians. Their only two really tough Tests came against Australia, where they lost 38-22 in the first and then edged the second by just eight points, 30-22.
South Africa have also failed to cover this handicap in every one of their last five home matches against England. Although England are coming off a poor Six Nations, they showed last year that they are a force to reckon with, and after a solid year for their club sides I really think we are in for a close game at Ellis Park.
Suggested bet: Handicap, England [+16.5] at 1.80
Although I think England are going to make it a close game, I think we are going to see plenty of points on the board. The weather is forecast to be cool and dry for Saturday, and I expect an attacking approach from both teams.
Suggested bet: Total Points over 54.5 at 1.91
Click here for all betting on South Africa v England match
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Back Boks to win the Nations Championships Refund
Take an Outright Winner bet & get a refund if they lose the Final.
Take a outright bet on South Africa to win the Nations Championship and get your stake refunded in World Coins up to R5000 if they lose in the North vs South Grand Final on Finals Day (29 nov)
How To Claim
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mail promotions@wsb.co.za with Subject ‘Nations Championship’ within 72 hrs
