The Nations Championship returns this weekend with Round 4, and we preview three of the matches: Ireland v Argentina, Scotland v New Zealand and England v Australia.
The Italy v South Africa clash will have its own preview which will be posted on Thursday night.
Ireland, New Zealand and England are all short-priced favourites, so we turn our attention to the handicap markets, where we believe the value lies.
Friday, 6 November
Ireland v Argentina
Ireland made a solid start to their Nations Championship campaign, winning their opening two matches away from home. They edged Australia 33-31 in Sydney before beating Japan 36-20, but their unbeaten run came to an end with a 40-21 defeat to New Zealand at Eden Park.
Argentina had a mixed campaign, losing their opener 47-38 to Scotland before bouncing back with a 35-21 victory over Wales. They then suffered a narrow 31-24 defeat to England, leaving them with one win from their three matches. Their subsequent form has been disappointing, and they enter this fixture on a four-match winless run, most recently drawing 28-28 with Australia.
Head-to-Head
Ireland have won four of the last five meetings between the sides, with Argentina’s only victory during that period coming in the 2015 Rugby World Cup quarter-final. The most recent encounter saw Ireland edge a 22-19 victory in Dublin in 2024, while the previous meeting ended in a comprehensive 53-7 Irish win in 2021.
Betting
Ireland are trading at 1.33 for the win, with Argentina at 3.75 and the draw priced at 34.00. The handicap is Ireland -9.5.
Verdict
Ireland have an excellent home record against Argentina, and their recent form suggests they are capable of covering the handicap. Although their last meeting was decided by just three points, Ireland won the previous encounter by 46 and appear to hold the key to unlocking the Argentina defence.
Ireland have already shown they can deliver convincing victories, including their 36-20 away win over Japan, and we fancy them to make home advantage count and win by double figures.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Ireland [-9.5] at 1.87.
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Saturday, 7 November
Scotland v New Zealand
Scotland enjoyed a productive Nations Championship campaign in July, winning two of their three matches. They opened with an entertaining 47-38 victory away to Argentina before losing 42-28 to South Africa in Pretoria. They finished strongly with a 33-17 victory over Fiji.
New Zealand were unbeaten in the opening three rounds, although they were pushed hard in their 34-32 victory over France. They followed that with a comfortable 47-17 win against Italy before beating Ireland 40-21 at Eden Park.
The All Blacks subsequently lost the final three Tests of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series against South Africa but bounced back with convincing Bledisloe Cup victories over Australia, winning 50-19 and 43-21.
Head-to-Head
New Zealand have won the last five encounters between the sides, with the most recent four taking place in Scotland. However, four of those five victories were by eight points or fewer.
The All Blacks won 25-17 at Murrayfield in 2025 and 31-23 in 2022, while their biggest winning margin across the last five meetings was a 51-22 victory in 2012.
Betting
New Zealand are favourites at 1.26, with Scotland trading at 4.25 and the draw at 31.00. The handicap is New Zealand -10.5.
Verdict
New Zealand have dominated this fixture historically, but Scotland have made life difficult for them in recent meetings. Four of the last five encounters have been decided by eight points or fewer, suggesting that the +10.5 handicap offers some value.
Scotland have also shown plenty of attacking ability, scoring 47 points against Argentina and 33 against Fiji in their Nations Championship victories. Although the All Blacks arrive in good form following their Bledisloe Cup successes, we fancy Scotland to remain competitive at Murrayfield and stay within the handicap.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Scotland [+10.5] at 1.93.
Sunday, 8 November
England v Australia
England recovered well from a disappointing start to their Nations Championship campaign. They suffered a 45-21 defeat to South Africa in Johannesburg before producing a dominant 73-8 victory over Fiji. They followed that with a hard-fought 31-24 away win against Argentina, finishing the July series with two victories from three matches.
Australia finished the July Nations Championship with one win from three matches. They opened with a narrow 33-31 defeat to Ireland before losing 42-26 to France. However, they ended the series on a high with an emphatic 57-10 victory over Italy.
The Wallabies subsequently enjoyed a six-match unbeaten run, including a thrilling 42-38 victory over South Africa, but their momentum was halted by successive Bledisloe Cup defeats to New Zealand, losing 50-19 in Auckland and 43-21 in Sydney.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is more competitive, with England winning three of the last five meetings and Australia claiming the other two. England won the most recent encounter 25-7 at Twickenham in November 2025.
Betting
England are trading at 1.33 for the win, with Australia at 3.75 and the draw priced at 26.00. The handicap is England -8.5.
Verdict
England have home advantage and arrive in better form, while Australia’s defensive struggles against New Zealand are a concern. The Wallabies conceded 93 points across their two Bledisloe Cup defeats, and England have the attacking quality to exploit similar weaknesses.
England scored 73 points against Fiji and 31 against Argentina in their last two Nations Championship outings. Although Australia showed their attacking potential with a convincing victory over Italy, their recent defensive performances suggest they could struggle to contain the hosts. We fancy England to win comfortably and cover the -8.5 handicap.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, England [-8.5] at 1.87.
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