Rugby’s Rivalry tour rolls into its final franchise fixture this week, with New Zealand staying in Johannesburg to take on the Lions at Ellis Park on Tuesday evening.
This is New Zealands last game against a club side on the tour, sandwiched between the first Test win over South Africa on Saturday and next weekend’s second Test. Expect New Zealand to keep their tour momentum going with another strong performance, while the Lions will be looking to put in a big shift in front of their home fans on the Highveld. It should be a really entertaining midweek run-out.
Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry
After New Zealand’s emphatic 33-16 win over South Africa in the first Test on Saturday, the outright market for the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series has been turned completely on its head. New Zealand were the outsiders coming into the first Test but that has now all changed. The bookies now have the draw at 2.60 as the shortest price, followed by South Africa at 2.70 and New Zealand at 3.00. With New Zealand now leading the series 1-0 heading into the second Test next weekend, South Africa need to win at least two of the three remaining Tests to have any chance of taking the series, while a 2-2 finish would result in the draw landing. Everything is still very much to play for across the remaining three Tests, and it should be a fascinating series to watch unfold.
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Lions
The Lions had a decent season in the URC, qualifying for the quarterfinals after finishing seventh on the table with ten wins from their eighteen pool games. They faced Leinster in the quarters away from home, where they unfortunately fell well short, losing 59-10. They have since had a mediocre Currie Cup season, winning two, drawing one and losing the other four so far. As a franchise, they have won just three of their last ten matches across all competitions, so form is very much on the ropes heading into this tour game.
The Lions have named a strong side of URC players:
Lions: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Kelly Mpeku, 13 Henco van Wyk, 12 Richard Kriel, 11 Erich Cronje, 10 Chris Smit, 9 Nico Steyn, 8 Francke Horn, 7 Batho Hlekani, 6 Siba Mahashe, 5 Ruan Delport, 4 Etienne Oosthuizen, 3 Sebastian Lombard, 2 PJ Botha, 1 SJ Kotze
Replacements: 16 Morne Brandon, 17 Boan Venter, 18 RF Schoeman, 19 Hyron Andrews, 20 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 21 JC Pretorius, 22 Haashim Pead, 23 Boeta Chamberlain
New Zealand
New Zealand continued their perfect form on the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry tour as they beat South Africa 33-16 on Saturday in the first Test match of the series. Their other three results on tour had already seen them beat the Bulls 50-19, the Sharks 54-0 and the Stormers 38-21, meaning they are now four from four on tour. They have also now won nine of their last ten matches across all competitions, with their only defeat coming against England at the end of last year.
It is quite remarkable to see the depth New Zealand have on this tour — just three days after facing South Africa on Saturday, they have named a completely different world-class side for the Lions game. The big talking point is the return of Richie Mo’unga to the New Zealand side, as he gets back into the number ten jersey. Beauden Barrett moves to fullback for the fixture, while Rieko Ioane starts at outside centre. Patrick Tuipulotu will captain the side from lock, and there is a real sense that the All Blacks are treating this game as a serious tune-up rather than a light run-out.
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Fehi Fineanganofo, 13 Rieko Ioane , 12 Timoci Tavatavanawai, 11 Emoni Narawa, 10 Richi Mo’unga, 9 Noah Hotham, 8 Semisi Ta’eiloa, 7 Ethan Blackadder, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Patrick Tuipulotu (captain), 4 Sam Darry, 3 Pasilio Tosi, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Siale Lauaki
Replacements: 16 Bradley Slater, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Saula Ma’u, 19 Jamie Hannah, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Josh Jacomb, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown.
Betting and Verdict
The Lions 26.00
Draw 71.00
New Zealand 1.005
Handicap: Lions +37.5
New Zealand have put a large number of points on all three of the other franchise sides on this tour, running out 50-19 winners against the Bulls, 54-0 winners against the Sharks and 38-21 winners against the Stormers. They have also named very strong side for this fixture on the back of a first-Test win against South Africa, so it is very hard to see them not putting the Lions to the sword once again here. The handicap is big but we are looking for the tourists to cover it.
Suggested bet: New Zealand -37.5 at 1.85
We saw New Zealand score 50 points and 33 points in their last two games in the Highveld, and with a calm evening expected on Tuesday and a very exciting team named by New Zealand for this fixture, we think we will see plenty of points scored by the visitors once again. The Lions also have some attacking talent and Ellis Park has always been a venue that opens up in the second half as legs get tired at altitude. We like the over 71.5 in what should be an entertaining game.
Suggested bet: Total points over 71.5 at 1.90
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
