The Investec Champions Cup reaches the semi-final stage this weekend with two mouthwatering fixtures on the cards. Three-time European champions Leinster host Toulon in Dublin on Saturday afternoon, before Bordeaux-Bègles welcome Bath to Stade Chaban-Delmas on Sunday.
Both home sides are heavy favourites and have earned the right to host through dominant quarter-final performances, but European knockout rugby at this stage has a habit of producing tighter, more attritional contests than the earlier rounds. We preview both matches from a betting angle.
SATURDAY
Leinster v RC Toulonnais — Click here to bet
Leinster have been ruthless in this season’s Champions Cup. They hammered Sale Sharks 43-13 in the quarter-finals and demolished Edinburgh 49-31 in the last 16, both at the Aviva Stadium, where they have been close to unplayable this season. In the URC they won 29-21 at Ulster and 36-19 at home to the Scarlets, though they stumbled to a surprise 26-29 defeat away at Benetton last weekend. Four wins from five overall, but that loss will have given the coaching staff plenty to think about heading into a European semi-final. The Aviva should bring the best out of them.
Toulon’s road to the last four has been far grittier. They pulled off the stand-out result of the knockout stage with a superb 22-19 away victory at Glasgow Warriors in the quarter-finals, having squeezed past the Stormers 28-27 at home in the last 16. In the Top 14 they have been in fine form recently, winning 52-26 at home and 47-22 away in their last two domestic outings, though they were beaten 20-36 away at Perpignan before their European run kicked into gear. Make no mistake, Toulon are a side that know how to grind through knockout rugby, and they will relish the underdog tag in Dublin.
Head-to-Head
These two have met five times in European competition, though the fixture has been dormant since 2021. Leinster demolished Toulon 30-0 at home in April 2021, but before that Toulon won four straight European encounters, 29-14 at home in April 2014, 25-20 at home in April 2015, 24-9 at home in December 2015, and 20-16 away in Dublin later that same month.
Betting and Verdict
Leinster are 1.26, Toulon 4.50 with the draw priced at 29.00.
The handicap is Leinster −10.5
Total Points: 56.5
Leinster have been devastating at home in Europe this season, scoring 49 and 43 in their two knockout matches, but 10.5 is a significant spread for a semi-final. Toulon’s entire knockout campaign has been built on resilience, one-point and three-point wins in the last two rounds. Semi-finals tend to produce tighter, more cagey contests than the earlier rounds, and Toulon have the European pedigree to keep this within touching distance.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, RC Toulonnais [+10.5] at 1.91.
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SUNDAY
Bordeaux-Bègles v Bath — Click here to bet
Bordeaux have been devastating at home in Europe this season. They outclassed Toulouse 30-15 in the quarter-finals, a statement victory over the defending champions, and annihilated Leicester Tigers 64-14 in the last 16, both at Stade Chaban-Delmas. Their domestic form has dipped alarmingly, however, with back-to-back Top 14 defeats, a 21-23 home loss to Montpellier last weekend following a 15-45 mauling away at Stade Rochelais the week before. Whether those league results are a genuine concern or simply a sign that their focus has been firmly on Europe remains to be seen.
Bath arrive on the back of four wins from five, with the only blemish a narrow 38-41 defeat away at Northampton last weekend. Their European campaign has been hugely impressive, they survived an extraordinary 43-41 quarter-final thriller against Northampton at home, having earlier beaten Saracens 31-22 in the last 16. In the Premiership they hammered Harlequins 48-15 at home and won 31-26 away at Sale Sharks. This is a side brimming with confidence, capable of scoring freely, and battle-hardened after that nerve-shredding quarter-final.
Head-to-Head
There is virtually no relevant head-to-head history between these sides. Bath won both of their previous meetings, 15-6 away in Bordeaux in October 2013 and 54-13 at home in January 2014 – but those matches are over 12 years old and carry little predictive value. This semi-final will be decided by current form rather than past encounters and it looks one of the harder fixtures of the weekend to call.
Betting and Verdict
Bordeaux are 1.21, Bath 5.00 with the draw 36.00.
The handicap is Bordeaux −12.5
Total Points: 61.5
Bordeaux’s European home record this season speaks for itself, 64 and 30 points in their two knockout matches, but their confidence must be rattled after two consecutive Top 14 defeats.
Bath have shown they can put up big numbers, scoring 43 against Northampton and 48 against Harlequins in their last two home wins, and should not be underestimated on the road either after winning 31-26 at Sale. Semi-finals bring a level of intensity that narrows the gap between sides, and 12.5 is asking a lot.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Bath [+12.5] at 1.95.
Click here for betting on all the weekend’s Champions Cup matches
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
