This week brings the third major of the year, and arguably the toughest test in golf, as the world’s best descend on Long Island for the 2026 US Open at Shinnecock Hills. We preview the tournament and pick our team to take on the bookmakers.
The US Open is the Championship that punishes you for everything, wayward drives, missed putts, even slightly imperfect course management, and Shinnecock takes that brutal philosophy and amplifies it with a windswept, exposed setup that rewards only the most complete games on Tour. With Scottie Scheffler chasing a career grand slam and most of the World’s top players in form, all eyes will be on the leaderboard come Sunday.
The Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, on the eastern tip of Long Island in Southampton, New York, is one of the most revered venues in American golf and a course steeped in US Open history. The par-70 layout stretches to around 7,440 yards (6803 meters) for this year’s championship and presents what is widely regarded as the toughest examination on the major-championship calendar. The course is laid out across rolling, treeless terrain that sits fully exposed to the Atlantic winds, with thick fescue rough, deep traditional bunkering and notoriously firm, fast greens. With high winds forecast across all four days this week, the set-up looks set to play even harder than usual.
From a betting angle, this is a venue where the short game becomes absolutely critical. The green complexes at Shinnecock are some of the most demanding in golf, small, severely sloped and protected by run-off areas that funnel even slightly off-line approach shots into nasty, awkward lies. Players will find themselves needing to get up and down from short grass, deep bunkers and tight collars throughout the week, and the data is clear that scrambling and strokes gained around the green should be the two stats that most reliably correlate with success here. Add in the patience and discipline that come with major-championship setups, and this is a venue that rewards complete, mature golfers.
Market Leaders
Scottie Scheffler is the favourite at 6.00 as he chases the career grand slam, the World Number one arrives on Long Island in great form and with the US Open the only major missing from his cabinet. Rory McIlroy is the next-shortest price at 11.00, with Jon Rahm just behind at 12.00. Xander Schauffele sits at 17.00, while Matt Fitzpatrick, a former US Open champion, and Tommy Fleetwood are both available at 19.00. In a major where the toughness of the test traditionally separates the elite from the rest, the top end of the board looks fully deserving of their prices.
Betting (2026 US Open) – Click here to bet
Scottie Scheffler 6.00
Rory McIlroy 11.00
Jon Rahm 12.00
Xander Schauffele 17.00
Matt Fitzpatrick 19.00
Tommy Fleetwood 19.00
Previous winners (different courses)
2025 JJ Spaun (United States) -1 (2 strokes)
2024 Bryson DeChambeau (United States) −6 (1 stroke)
2023 Wyndham Clark (United States) −10 (1 stroke)
2022 Matt Fitzpatrick (England) −6 (1 stroke)
2021 Jon Rahm (Spain) −6 (1 stroke)
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Selections:
Rory McIlroy at 11.00
Our first pick this week is Rory McIlroy. One thing you can almost always count on with the Northern Irishman is that he turns up at majors, and we have already seen that this year with his win at the Masters and a 7th place finish at the PGA Championship. McIlroy also has an incredible record at the US Open, in his last seven starts at the tournament he has finished inside the top 10 on six occasions, with his only outlier coming at last year’s championship where he was 19th. He was also runner-up in 2024 and 2023. McIlroy is in great form too, with three top-20 finishes in his last three starts, 12th 7th and 19th, with the most recent of those last weekend at the RBC Canadian Open. It is hard to look past McIlroy in a major when his name is so consistently near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Suggested bet: Rory McIlroy each way at 11.00.
Patrick Reed at 51.00
If there is one thing that is going to be absolutely crucial this week, it is the short game, and one player who thrives in that department is Patrick Reed. Shinnecock’s setup, generous fairways but small greens with severe run-offs and protective bunkering, means players will inevitably find themselves in tough positions all week, especially with the wind forecast, and being able to convert from those spots can save shots in bunches. This is where Reed has a real advantage. He has long been known as one of the best short-game players in the world, and he comes into this week leading the DP World Tour’s Race to Dubai after two wins. The way this course sets up, I really like Reed at 51.00.
Suggested bet: Patrick Reed each way at 51.00.
Tommy Fleetwood at 19.00
It is only a matter of time before Tommy Fleetwood wins a major, and I think he stands a real chance this week. He is coming into the tournament in strong form, having finished 11th at the RBC Canadian Open last week and fourth at the Memorial the week before, just two shots off the lead. His short game is also in great shape, he is currently ranked 2nd on Tour for scrambling from the rough, 5th for scrambling overall and 5th for strokes gained around the green, all stats that should play a vital role at this week’s setup. The real clincher, though, is his performance at the 2018 US Open, the last time the tournament was played at Shinnecock, Fleetwood shot a remarkable 63 in the final round to finish runner-up, just one shot back of eventual winner Brooks Koepka. With all that in mind, I really think we could see something special from him at 19.00 this week.
Suggested bet: Tommy Fleetwood each way at 19.00
I will be back on Thursday morning (SA time) with a 4th selection at a big price
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Prices correct at the time of writing but subject to change
