Tour de France Stage 5 Betting Preview
Stage 5 of the 2026 Tour de France starts in Lannemezan and finishes 158.3 kilometres later in Pau. While this isn’t a completely flat stage, it represents one of the best opportunities so far for the pure sprinters to finally stamp their authority on the race.
Stage 4 Review
Mads Pedersen started the day as the 4.00 favourite, and he duly delivered with another exceptional performance.
The Dane managed to make the decisive 18-man breakaway and, despite spending plenty of energy helping drive the move, still had enough left to comfortably win the sprint to the line. He was superbly supported throughout by his Lidl-Trek teammates, with Quinn Simmons in particular doing a tremendous amount of work before finishing second himself.
Pedersen claimed both the stage victory and the Green Jersey, while Garcia completed the podium in third.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the day came in the general classification, where Torstein Træen of Uno-X Mobility inherited the yellow jersey after Tadej Pogačar was content to let the break gain enough time to take over the race lead, at least for now.
Classification Update
Træen now leads Sean Quinn of EF Education-EasyPost by 28 seconds, with Pogačar sitting fourth overall, 7 minutes 53 seconds behind the race leader.
Pedersen has taken firm control of the Green Jersey competition and now leads Pogačar by 48 points. The only other sprinter to have featured prominently so far is Biniam Girmay, who sits on 39 points.
Alex Baudin currently wears the King of the Mountains jersey, although it remains very early in that competition.
In the overall betting markets:
- Tadej Pogačar remains the overwhelming 1.16 favourite to win the Tour.
- Jonas Vingegaard is 5.25.
- Pedersen has shortened dramatically from 6.50 before the Tour to become the 1.73 favourite for the Green Jersey, which is encouraging news for anyone who backed him before the race started.
- Pogačar remains the 2.25 favourite to win the King of the Mountains classification.
Stage 5 Profile
At 158.3 kilometres, Stage 5 is relatively short by Tour standards, but it is certainly not completely flat.
The opening half of the stage trends gradually downhill before the terrain becomes increasingly rolling. The route includes several uncategorised rises before the riders tackle the day’s only classified climb, the Category 3 Côte de Bealeix, which measures 1 kilometre at a steep 8.8%, cresting with just over 25 kilometres remaining.
While that climb may briefly put some of the heavier sprinters under pressure, the remaining kilometres into Pau are largely favourable, giving dropped riders every opportunity to regain contact before the finish.
With around 1,600 metres of total climbing, this isn’t a traditional pan-flat sprint stage, but the profile still strongly favours a bunch finish.
What to Expect
The sprinters have had very few genuine opportunities during the opening week, and I expect their teams to make this one count.
There will almost certainly be a breakaway, but I don’t expect it to be given much freedom. Teams such as Lidl-Trek, Alpecin-Deceuninck, Visma-Lease a Bike and Decathlon AG2R all have riders capable of winning from a sprint and should be prepared to commit resources to bringing the escape back.
I also don’t expect UAE Team Emirates XRG to have any objections to a controlled race. With Pogačar sitting comfortably in the overall standings, there is little incentive for them to make the stage harder than necessary.
Everything points towards a bunch sprint in Pau.
Stage 5 Betting
- Tim Merlier – 2.90
- Jasper Philipsen – 3.25
- Olav Kooij – 5.50
- Biniam Girmay – 5.50
- Mads Pedersen – 19.00
- 34.00 and bigger the remainder.
Verdict
This isn’t the easiest sprint stage of the Tour, but it is probably the best opportunity the pure sprinters have had so far.
The final classified climb is short enough that the elite fast men should be able to survive, particularly with their teams working to control the race.
Tim Merlier has looked the quickest sprinter throughout the build-up to the Tour, and at 2.90 he appeals as the most likely winner.
With World Sports Betting’s Money Back for Second promotion in place, there is also a little added insurance should he narrowly miss out.
Tim Merlier to win Stage 5 at 2.90
Disclaimer: Prices were correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Tour de France 2026 – Stage Winner Money Back Promotion
Back any rider to win any stage of the 2026 Tour de France, and if your selection finishes 2nd in that stage, World Sports Betting will refund your stake in World Coins, up to R5,000!
Promotion Details
- Promotion period: 4 July – 26 July 2026
- Valid on pre-match single (straight) win bets only
- Bets must be placed before the start of each stage
- Refunds are paid in World Coins
- Maximum refund: R5,000 per account
- Only real money bets qualify (free bets excluded)
- Only one qualifying refund per bet
- Cash-out bets do not qualify
- World Coins are subject to the standard World Sports Betting Free Bet Terms & Conditions
- Accounts must be verified and in good standing
How to Claim
Simply email promotions@wsb.co.za with Subject ‘TDF Stage’ to claim your refund within 72 hours of the stage finishing.
