Round 5 of the Nations Championship takes place this weekend, and we preview two of the matches: Wales v New Zealand and Scotland v Australia.
The France v South Africa clash, arguably the biggest game of the weekend, is covered in a separate preview.
Click here for the France v South Africa Preview
New Zealand and Scotland are both favourites, but we have different betting approaches for the two matches. We turn to the total-points market in Cardiff and the handicap market at Murrayfield, where we believe there could be some value.
Saturday, 14 November
Wales v New Zealand – Click here to bet
Wales started their Nations Championship campaign with a solid 39-24 victory over Fiji in Round 1, but followed that with two disappointing defeats. They lost 35-21 away to Argentina before suffering a comprehensive 43-0 defeat to South Africa.
New Zealand have enjoyed a perfect Nations Championship campaign so far, winning all four matches, including important victories over France and Ireland.
The All Blacks subsequently lost their four-Test series against South Africa 3-1, but bounced back with successive victories over Australia, winning 50-19 and 43-21. They continued their winning ways last weekend with a 43-21 victory over Scotland at Murrayfield.
Head-to-Head
Wales have not beaten New Zealand in a Test match since 1953, and the All Blacks have dominated recent encounters.
The last five meetings have produced New Zealand victories by scores of 33-18, 40-17, 54-16, 55-23 and 52-26.
The last three encounters have been particularly high-scoring affairs, producing 70, 78 and 78 points respectively.
Betting
New Zealand are overwhelming favourites at 1.04, with Wales trading at 17.00.
The handicap is New Zealand -33.5.
Verdict
The handicap is a difficult one to call. New Zealand have an outstanding record against Wales, but giving away 33.5 points is a substantial handicap, even against a Welsh side that has struggled in recent times.
We prefer the total-points market.
Recent meetings between these sides have produced plenty of points, with each of the last three encounters comfortably exceeding the 68.5-point line.
New Zealand have also been scoring freely, putting 50 and 43 points past Australia in their two Bledisloe Cup victories before scoring another 43 against Scotland last weekend.
Wales have struggled defensively, conceding 35 points against Argentina and 43 against South Africa. While their attacking performances have been inconsistent, they did score 39 points against Fiji and 21 against Argentina earlier in the competition.
The obvious concern is that Wales could struggle to contribute enough points, as they did against South Africa. However, New Zealand’s recent attacking form suggests they could do much of the heavy lifting themselves.
We expect the All Blacks to dominate, and if Wales can contribute a couple of tries, the total should have every chance of clearing the 68.5-point line.
Suggested Bet: Total points over 68.5 at 1.91.
Rugby Handicap & Total Points Refund
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Sunday, 15 November
Scotland v Australia – Click here to bet
Scotland have had a mixed Nations Championship campaign, winning two of their four matches and sitting fourth on the Northern Hemisphere standings.
They opened with an entertaining 47-38 victory over Argentina before losing 42-28 to South Africa in Pretoria. They bounced back with a 33-17 victory over Fiji but were unable to build on that result last weekend, going down 43-21 to New Zealand at Murrayfield.
Australia enjoyed an impressive six-match unbeaten run earlier in the year, with the highlight being a thrilling 42-38 victory over South Africa.
However, their recent form has been disappointing. The Wallabies have lost their last three matches, conceding 50 points against New Zealand in Auckland, another 43 against the All Blacks in Sydney, and 45 in their 45-22 defeat to England last weekend.
Head-to-Head
Scotland have enjoyed the better of recent meetings between these sides, winning four of the last five encounters.
The most recent clash took place at Murrayfield in 2024, when Scotland recorded a convincing 27-13 victory.
The two meetings before that were much closer, with Australia winning 16-15 in 2022 and Scotland claiming a narrow 15-13 victory in 2021.
Betting
Scotland are favourites at 1.38, with Australia trading at 3.45.
The handicap is Scotland -8.5.
Verdict
We are siding with Scotland to cover the handicap in front of their home supporters.
The Scots have enjoyed considerable success against Australia in recent years, winning four of the last five meetings, including a 14-point victory at Murrayfield in 2024.
Australia’s defensive performances are a major concern. They have conceded 138 points in their last three matches, an average of 46 per game, and their 45-22 defeat to England last weekend highlighted their difficulties against quality opposition.
Scotland will be disappointed with their defeat to New Zealand, but they have demonstrated their attacking ability throughout the Nations Championship, scoring 47 points against Argentina, 28 against South Africa and 33 against Fiji.
The Scots should also benefit from playing at Murrayfield, where they will be looking to respond to last weekend’s defeat.
Australia remain dangerous with ball in hand, and their ability to score points is a concern when backing Scotland to cover a handicap. However, their recent defensive record suggests the hosts should have enough opportunities to establish a comfortable advantage.
We fancy Scotland to win by double figures and cover the -8.5 handicap.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Scotland [-8.5] at 1.93.
Click here for betting on all the weekend’s Nations Championship matches
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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