The fourth and final Test of the series is upon us this weekend, and this time the two sides head across the Atlantic to Baltimore in the USA. It has been a fantastic series across the first three Tests, with South Africa currently leading 2-1 after back-to-back wins on home soil to overturn New Zealand’s series-opening result.
A win here would clinch a well-earned series victory for South Africa, while a New Zealand win would level things up at 2-2 and secure a shared series. Playing at a neutral venue in the USA adds a really unique twist, and it should be a fantastic occasion to close out the series.
Series Update
Heading into the fourth and final Test, South Africa lead the series 2-1 after their two wins in Cape Town and Johannesburg to overturn New Zealand’s first-Test win. South Africa now just need a win (or a draw) to clinch the series and lift the silverware, while New Zealand need to win to level things up at 2-2 and secure a shared trophy.
First Test 22 August
New Zealand got the series off to the perfect start, beating South Africa 33-16 in Johannesburg in the opening Test. The game was a tight contest to start with, with South Africa leading 13-12 at the break, however, a poor second-half performance and two late yellow cards saw them lose the second half 21-3.
Second Test 29 August
After making a number of changes to the starting line-up due to injury and player performance, South Africa put in a much better performance in the second Test. They got off to a strong start with Jesse Kriel scoring in the first two minutes of the game. A solid rest of the half meant they led 24-14 at half-time. This time round, they had a much better second half and, although New Zealand won the half 12-9, South Africa were able to hold onto their lead and win the match 33-26.
Third Test
The third Test delivered the excitement fans were hoping for. An early yellow card for South Africa and an unexpected injury saw them have to adapt to the changes immediately. New Zealand were able to capitalise on this, scoring the opening try of the match. South Africa responded with a try of their own nine minutes later. Both teams would score one more try apiece, so the sides went into half time locked at 12-12. The second half saw a number of changes from both sides, and although New Zealand got the first points on the board, two tries and a penalty saw South Africa take the game out of reach. New Zealand were able to score after the buzzer to make the score more respectable, but it was too late for them.
South Africa
Coach Rassie Erasmus has made two changes to the side from last week, with Damian Willemse replacing the injured Cheslin Kolbe at fullback. Morne van den Berg will also earn his place starting at nine, with Cobus Reinach dropping to the bench.
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok.
New Zealand
New Zealand coach Dave Rennie has made a number of changes, some of which are injury enforced.
Allblacks: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Ethan Blackadder, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Sam Darry, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor (captain), 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Rieko Ioane, 23 Beauden Barrett.
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Betting and Verdict
South Africa are favourites and are trading at 1.50 while New Zealand are at 3.00. The draw is currently at 21.00, and the handicap is set at South Africa -6.5.
The last two matches have seen South Africa win by very narrow margins. In the second Test they won the match 33-26, a seven-point margin, while the third Test saw them win 29-24, a five-point margin. New Zealand have nothing to lose here, while South Africa will be desperate to hold onto their series lead.
A win for New Zealand will mean the series ends as a 2-2 draw, which will feel very much like a loss for South Africa, and so the pressure is very much on them. We expect another very close match between the two sides.
Suggested bet: Handicap, New Zealand [+6.5] at 1.85.
The total points between the two sides across the first three matches has been 53, 59 and 49 points respectively, for an average of 53.6 points per match. Both sides have some of the best attackers in the world, but they also pride themselves on defence and won’t sacrifice points at the back to try and score more up front. The bookies have the total points under 59.5 at 1.90, and we like this bet given we are yet to see any match in the series score more than 59.5 points.
Suggested bet: Total points under 59.5 at 1.90.
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