The Tour de France heads to one of the sport’s most iconic climbs on Friday, with the riders taking on the legendary Alpe d’Huez. While Tadej Pogacar remains firmly in control of the yellow jersey, there are still several fascinating battles to be decided over the final three stages.
Stage 18 Review
As predicted, Stage 18 was one for the breakaway, as UAE were clearly not looking to bring the stage back together, especially with so many riders struggling with illness or injury.
There was a crazy battle to get into the break that continued over the first Category 1 climb, and when the break eventually got clear it was driven hard by Mads Pedersen, who did superbly to take the intermediate sprint after 129 kilometres and all but wrap up the green jersey.
The break stayed clear until the final climb, where Richard Carapaz made his move to ride away from the remaining escapees. He went on to win by 45 seconds from Mauro Schmid, with Matteo Jorgenson taking third. Valentin Paret-Peintre faded over the closing kilometres to finish fourth.
My stage selection, Davide Piganzoli, never featured. I did hear the commentators mention he suffered a mechanical during the stage, so I’m not sure whether it was simply bad luck, poor legs or a lack of interest in chasing the break.
Classification Update
Tadej Pogacar’s lead remains unchanged at 4 minutes 32 seconds over Remco Evenepoel and he is still unbackable at 1.01 to win the yellow jersey.
By taking maximum points at the intermediate sprint, Mads Pedersen has increased his advantage over Jasper Philipsen to 32 points and is back into 1.20 to win the green jersey.
The King of the Mountains battle has tightened considerably. Pogacar still wears the polka dot jersey, but now leads Valentin Paret-Peintre by just one point, with Richard Carapaz another six points behind. Carapaz has replaced Pogacar as favourite at 2.05, with Paret-Peintre 3.25 and Pogacar 3.50. There is little doubt this competition will now only be decided on Saturday.
There was no change in the young rider classification, with Isaac Del Toro still leading Paul Seixas by 20 seconds, but there has been a significant betting move. Del Toro has drifted from 1.65 and is now a 2.00 joint favourite alongside Seixas. The move reflects the likelihood that Del Toro may now have to sacrifice his own ambitions in support of Pogacar given UAE’s injury and illness concerns.
In the team classification, Lidl-Trek extended their advantage to 22 minutes 5 seconds over UAE Team Emirates. UAE clearly have more important objectives than defending the team prize, and Lidl-Trek are now 1.10 favourites after starting the tour at 12.00.
Stage 19 Profile
At just 127.9 kilometres, this is one of the shortest mountain stages of the Tour, but it certainly won’t be one of the easiest.
The riders face a Category 2 climb almost immediately before tackling the Col du Noyer, a brutal Category 1 ascent that is likely to spark another fierce fight to establish the day’s breakaway. After a rolling middle section, the intermediate sprint comes after 89 kilometres, before the riders climb the Col d’Ornon and then finish on one of cycling’s most famous climbs, Alpe d’Huez, with its 13.8 kilometres at an average gradient of 8.1%.
What to Expect?
Being such a short stage, I think this is one UAE should be able to control despite the illness running through the team. They may even receive help from some of the other general classification teams.
If I were Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe, I’d certainly be looking to test Pogacar given the illness in the UAE camp. It’s just unfortunate for them that Florian Lipowitz is no longer in the race, as having two genuine GC threats could have been a real advantage.
The intermediate sprint comes after 89 kilometres and there is a chance Mads Pedersen once again tries to infiltrate the breakaway to protect his green jersey. Having said that, with a 32-point lead he may also decide this is a day to conserve energy and remain in the bunch.
It is hard to see UAE allowing a dangerous break too much freedom on a finish like Alpe d’Huez, especially if Pogacar wants another stage victory.
Verdict
It’s very difficult to look beyond Tadej Pogacar winning this stage. The finish suits him perfectly and I expect UAE to keep the break within striking distance before he attacks on the final climb.
That said, I’m just a little nervous about taking the short price given the obvious issues UAE have been dealing with over the last few days.
Instead, I’m going to take a speculative chance on Lenny Martinez at 51.00. Martinez is still fighting for a top-ten finish overall, so he shouldn’t be given complete freedom, but I’m hoping he attacks early, makes the break and has the legs to finish the job if the favourites hesitate.
Bet: Lenny Martinez to win Stage 19 at 51.00.
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Stage 19 Betting – click here to bet
- Tadej Pogacar – 1.67
- Richard Carapaz – 5.25
- Sepp Kuss – 9.00
- Remco Evenepoel – 15.00
- Isaac Del Toro – 17.00
- Paul Seixas – 26.00
- Davide Piganzoli – 26.00
- Thymen Arensman – 26.00
Disclaimer: Odds were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.
