The days of traditional three-match tours where southern-hemisphere teams hosted northern-hemisphere sides across three consecutive weekends are well behind us with the arrival of this new Nations Championship format. After hosting England last weekend, South Africa now welcome Scotland to Loftus Versfeld for a one-off Test in Pretoria. The World Number One side heads into the fixture in ruthless form after last weekend’s demolition of England, while Scotland arrive in the Highveld on the back of a superb away win in Argentina.
This should be an exciting contest between two of the most exciting attacking sides in World rugby, and with the game being played at altitude it will be interesting to see how the visitors handle the conditions in the second-half.
South Africa
South Africa put on a dominant performance last weekend, showing yet again why they are the best in the World as they hammered England. The first-half was tight, with South Africa getting off to an early lead before England brought it back to be close at the break. However, the second-half was where we saw what we have come to expect from South Africa, scoring 28 points after the break, they went on to win the match 45-21 in what was a complete demolition of the visitors.
Rassie Erasmus has made 10 changes to the side from last weekend’s game, showing the incredible depth they have within the system. The big changes are at the 9 and 10 pairing, with the Bulls duo of Handre Pollard and Embrose Papier coming in, in front of their home fans in Pretoria. Pieter-Steph du Toit will captain the side from the side of the scrum as Siya Kolisi is out again, and the rotation looks a shrewd call from Erasmus given the demanding schedule that lies ahead over the coming weeks.
Starting XV: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Edwill van der Merwe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian Willemse, 11 Canan Moodie, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Embrose Papier, 8 Evan Roos, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit (captain), 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Cobus Wiese, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Boan Venter.
Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Ntuthuko Mchunu, 18 Zach Porthen, 19 Ben-Jason Dixon, 20 Vincent Tshituka, 21 Elrigh Louw, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Quan Horn.
Scotland
Scotland got off to a very successful start to their Nations Championship campaign as they beat Argentina 38-47 away from home. They had started the match 8 point underdogs.
After conceding early in the first-half they scored three tries in quick succession to take control and lead at the break. The second-half was a tighter affair, with both sides scoring 28 points each, but Scotland’s first-half lead was enough to see them home. It was an excellent statement performance from Gregor Townsend’s side to open the campaign with a win in South America.
Scotland have made just three changes to their lineup from last week, with Finn Russell coming in at 10 while Zander Fagerson and Gregor Brown both move from the bench into the starting lineup.
Starting XV: 15 Kyle Rowe, 14 Kyle Steyn (vice captain), 13 Rory Hutchinson, 12 Sione Tuipulotu (captain), 11 Jamie Dobie, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge (vice captain), 6 Matt Fagerson, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Gregor Brown, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Gregor Hiddleston, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Alex Samuel, 20 Josh Bayliss, 21 Magnus Bradbury, 22 Tom Jordan, 23 Stafford McDowall.
Head-to-Head
Scotland have struggled against South Africa in recent years, with their last win coming back in 2010 when they won 21-17 at home. The last time the sides met was at the end of 2024 at Murrayfield, where South Africa ended up winning 32-15. The last time Scotland played in South Africa was back in 2014, when they lost 55-6 in what was a very tough day at the office.
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Betting and Verdict
South Africa at 1.11, Scotland at 7.75, draw at 46.00. Handicap is South Africa -17.5.
It is difficult to go against the World Number One side at the moment. They are on a ten-match winning streak, beating some of the best sides in the world and putting up huge scores along the way. In their last three games alone, they have beaten England by 24, the Barbarians by 49 and Wales by 73. Scotland have been good recently, winning four of their last five, but we just cannot see them matching South Africa at Loftus this weekend and so we think the hosts will cover the handicap once again in the Highveld.
Suggested bet: Handicap, South Africa [-17.5] at 1.91.
South Africa scored 45 points in their game against England and 80 against the Barbarians a few weeks ago, however they did concede 21 and 31 points in those matches for combined totals of 66 and 111. Scotland have also been in some big-scoring games in their last three matches, with 85 points combined in their game against Argentina and 64 and 90 in their last two games of the Six Nations. Both teams are among the most exciting attacking sides in World rugby, love to play with plenty of tries and an open game, and are therefore also vulnerable to conceding at the other end, so we think we will have yet another high-scoring match on our hands this weekend.
Suggested bet: Total points over 62.5 at 1.91.
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