We enter the penultimate round of the 2025/2026 Super Rugby season with everything still to play for. Only six points separate the Reds in 6th place and the Western Force in 9th place, so there is a whole lot at stake when it comes to qualifying for the playoffs. We will look at all five matches from a betting angle and offer up a few suggested bets.
FRIDAY
Chiefs v Crusaders — Click here to bet
The Crusaders are fourth on the table on 32 points, having won six of their 12 matches. They beat the Blues 36-20 at home last weekend, lost to the Hurricanes 38-31 away the week before, and beat the Waratahs 35-20 at home three weeks ago. The Chiefs sit in second on 45 points after winning nine of their 12, and have racked up seven wins in a row. Their most recent home result was a 42-12 thrashing of the Highlanders last weekend, while their most recent away win came two weeks ago, 21-31 against the Reds.
Head-to-head
The Crusaders have won the last two meetings: 33-43 away from home earlier this year and 16-12 last year. The Chiefs had won the two before that, 19-35 away from home and 49-24 at home in the 2025 group stages.
Betting and Verdict
The bookies have the Chiefs at 1.98 while the Crusaders are also at 1.98.
The handicap is set at Crusaders -0.5.
The Chiefs have been on such a good run of form that it’s going to be hard to stop them, and with the Crusaders winning only two of their last five, I think the Chiefs should be able to get this one done.
Suggested Bet: Chiefs win at 1.98.
Waratahs v Brumbies — Click here to bet
The Waratahs sit seventh on 26 points after winning five of their 12 games, while the Brumbies are in fifth after winning six of their 12. The Waratahs come into this week off the back of a 50-35 win against the Fijian Drua away from home last weekend, snapping a run of three straight losses. The Brumbies, who had a bye last weekend, are also coming off a win, a 32-15 result over the Western Force two weeks ago, although they too had lost three in a row before that.
Head-to-head
The Waratahs have won three of the last five, including the last two, with the Brumbies winning one and the other ending in a draw. The most recent meeting saw the Waratahs win 28-30 away from home in March this year. The last time the Brumbies won was in May 2025, 40-17 at home.
Betting and Verdict
The Brumbies are at 1.63 for the win while the Waratahs are out at 2.50.
The handicap is set at Waratahs +3.5.
Both sides have similar form coming into this week, but I think the Waratahs can edge it on the back of their stronger recent record against the Brumbies and slightly better recent form.
Suggested Bet: Waratahs to win at 2.50.
SATURDAY
Moana Pasifika v Reds – Click here to bet
Moana Pasifika have lost 11 straight games and sit rock bottom of the table. They hosted the Hurricanes two weekends ago and lost 17-50, after also losing 19-45 at home to the Blues the week before that. The Reds currently hold the last playoff spot, sitting in sixth on 28 points after winning six of their 12 games. They come into this week off the back of back-to-back losses, 19-14 away to the Western Force and 21-31 at home to the Chiefs.
Head-to-head
The Reds have won three of the last four meetings. The most recent match saw them win 56-36, while the match before that saw Moana win 17-14 at home in April 2024. The Reds had won the two before that, both home and away.
Betting and Verdict
The Reds are favourites at 1.16 while Moana Pasifika are out at 6.25.
The handicap is set at Moana +15.5.
Both teams are coming into this week in poor form. The Reds have more to play for and I do think they will win, however they haven’t covered a 15.5-point handicap in either of their last two away games against Pasifika, and I don’t think they will this weekend either.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Moana Pasifika [+15.5] at 1.91
Hurricanes v Highlanders — Click here to bet
The Hurricanes have only lost two games all season, a tight 22-17 overtime defeat to the Chiefs and a surprise 25-20 loss to the Drua early in the season. They have won their last four matches in a row, with their most recent victory a 24-47 thumping of the Blues away from home last weekend. The Highlanders have had a far tougher season, winning only five of their 13 matches, and come into this week off the back of a 42-12 loss to the Chiefs last weekend.
Head-to-head
The Hurricanes have won the last five matches against the Highlanders. The most recent meeting saw them win 7-50 away from home earlier this year, while the last home fixture saw them win 24-20 back in 2025.
Betting and Verdict
The Hurricanes are at 1.05 while the Highlanders are out at 12.00.
The handicap is set at Hurricanes -21.5.
The Hurricanes have scored over 39.5 points in three of their last four matches, while the Highlanders have conceded over 39.5 in all of their last three against New Zealand sides. I think the Hurricanes should be able to put up 40 or more again this weekend.
Suggested bet: Hurricanes total points over 39.5 at 1.91
Western Force v Fijian Drua — Click here to bet
The Western Force have won three of their last five and sit in ninth place on 22 points, technically still alive in the playoff hunt provided they win their final two matches. They beat the Reds 19-14 at home last weekend. The Drua sit one place below them and would need a miracle to qualify, having lost 35-50 at home to the Waratahs last weekend.
Head-to-head
The Drua have won the last two and the Western Force won the two before that, with every result over those four matches coming at home. The Force’s two victories ended 52-15 and 48-10.
Betting and Verdict
The Force are favourites to win this weekend, trading at 1.16 while the Drua are out at 6.00.
The handicap is set at Western Force -14.5.
The Western Force have a brilliant home record, easily covering the handicap against the Drua in each of their last two encounters at home. They are also coming into this week in form and with plenty to play for. I think they will be able to cover the handicap again.
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Western Force [-14.5] at 1.95
Click here for betting on all the weekend’s Super Rugby matches
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
