Stage 21 of the Tour de France is back to its traditional finish on the Champs-Élysées but the inclusion of 3 10 loops featuring a Cat 4 climb means that a sprint finish is far from guaranteed.
We preview the stage and look at the jersey classifications.
Stage 20 Review
Stage 20 was chaotic from the outset, with a prolonged and intense battle before a breakaway finally managed to form. It turned into an attritional affair, with the leading group gradually whittled down to just three riders. Several chase groups lingered within striking distance, but a lack of cooperation meant they never truly threatened.
Kaden Groves made a bold decision not to wait for a sprint finish. With 16 km to go, he launched a solo attack — and it paid off handsomely. The chasing riders never saw him again, and he powered to a brilliant stage win.
Yellow Jersey Update
Tadej Pogacar leads Jonas Vingegaard by 4 minutes and 24 seconds, and barring any accidents, he will wear the Yellow Jersey on the podium in Paris.
Green Jersey Update
Jonathan Milan leads Tadej Pogacar by 80 points in the Green Jersey standings, and with only 70 points available on the final stage, the race is effectively over.
Polka Dot Update
Pogacar leads Vingegaard by 13 points and cannot be caught.
Stage Profile
The final stage of the 2025 Tour de France covers 132.3 km from Mantes-la-Ville to the iconic finish on the Champs-Élysées in Paris. While there may be champagne sipped early in celebration, the race will get serious once the peloton hits the city circuit.
This year’s finale includes a new twist: on three of the laps, the riders will take on an additional 10 km loop that features the Category 4 Côte de la Butte Montmartre — a 1.1 km cobbled climb averaging 5.9%. The summit of the final ascent comes just 6 km from the finish line, setting up an exciting and potentially unpredictable end to the race.
Stage 21 – What to Expect
The stage will begin in relaxed fashion, with the traditional photographs, champagne toasts, and smiles in the peloton. But as always, the racing will ignite once the riders reach the Paris circuit.
A breakaway is likely to go clear, and this year, the dynamics will be more complex than usual. With three climbs on the laps through Paris, teams with strong puncheurs may choose to chase rather than leave it all to the sprinters’ squads. That opens the door for the breakaway to survive — a rare possibility on the Champs-Élysées.
Still, the most probable scenario is that the break gets reeled in. From there, we could see a lone attacker triumph, a reduced group sprint, or even a full bunch sprint — depending on how hard the climbs are ridden. Adding another twist to the finale, rain is in the forecast, which could make for a nervy and dramatic finish in Paris.
Stage 21 Betting – click here to bet
Tadej Pogacar 5.50
Wout Van Aert 7.50
Jonathan Milan 7.50
Kaden Groves 13.00
Jordi Meeus 15.00
Tim Merlier 21.00
Tobias Lund Andresen 23.00
Jhonatan Narvaez 23.00
Julian Alaphilippe 29.00
Biniam Girmay 29.00
Arnaud De Lie 29.00
BET: Wout Van Aert at 7.50
Van Aert has put in a huge shift for Vingegaard throughout the Tour and at times has lacked his usual sharpness when in breakaways. However, I expect him to be well-positioned coming into the finale — likely on the wheel of someone like Pogacar — where he can use his superior sprint to take the win.
This bet comes with insurance for 2nd place – see below
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All prices correct at the time of posting but subject to change.
