The sprinters had their say on Wednesday in what turned out to be a more complicated stage than expected, but on Thursday the race heads into the mountains for the toughest test of the Tour. Stage 18 starts in Vif and finishes 171.5km later atop the third Hors Catégorie climb of the day — the Col de la Loze.
We preview the stage and look at the latest Jersey betting.
Stage 17 Review
There was a bit of a battle before a strong four-man break managed to get clear. Jonathan Milan picked up 11 points at the intermediate sprint before being dropped along with several other sprinters. His team did excellent work to bring him back, and he went on to win a crash-marred sprint in wet conditions — a result that all but seals the Green Jersey. Unfortunately, our stage pick Tim Merlier was involved in the late crash.
Outright Betting Update
Yellow Jersey Update – click here to bet
Pogacar leads Vingegaard by 4:15, with Lipowitz a distant 9 hours and 3 minutes back in third. Despite his commanding lead, Pogacar has drifted slightly in the betting — from 1.03 to 1.06 — while Vingegaard has shortened from 13.00 to 11.00.
Betting
Tadej Pogacar 1.06
Jonas Vingegaard 11.00
Florian Lipowitz 101.00
Primoz Roglic 151.00
Green Jersey Update – click here to bet
Stage 17 was always going to be crucial for the Green Jersey and Milan took 61 points to move 72 points clear of Pogacar
Jonathan Milan 1.07
Tadej Pogacar 10.00
Biniam Girmay 201.00
Polka Dot Update – click here to bet
Pogacar and Lenny Martinez remain level on 60 points in the King of the Mountains classification, but Pogacar holds the jersey on countback. However, as Pogacar wears Yellow, it will once again be Martinez who wears the Polka Dot Jersey on the road.
Tadej Pogacar 1.70
Lenny Martinez 4.00
Thymen Arensman 10.00
Jonas Vingegaard 13.00
Ben Healy 13.00
Valentin Paret-Peintre 15.00
Michael Woods 26.00
Enric Mas Nicolau 34.00
Felix Gall 41.00
Stage Profile
The road starts rising almost from the flag drop, though gradually at first. There is an intermediate sprint after 23.7 km before the riders take on the first of three Hors Catégorie climbs — the Col du Glandon. A quick and technical descent follows, leading into the base of the monstrous Col de la Madeleine. After descending, the peloton faces around 15 km of valley floor before tackling the brutal final ascent: the Col de la Loze.
Stage 18 – What to Expect
Although Jonathan Milan looks safe in the Green Jersey, I expect his team to set him up for the intermediate sprint before allowing a break to go clear. Visma will likely send riders up the road again, as they did on Tuesday, and we can expect strong climbers to join the move in pursuit of stage glory and valuable KOM points. The tactics of UAE Team Emirates, now without key lieutenant João Almeida, will be fascinating to watch.
In the end, I believe the break will be reeled in as Jonas Vingegaard launches an all-out assault on Tadej Pogacar. The Dane has shown signs of growing strength, and I think he can take the stage win and claw back some valuable time.
Stage 18 Betting – click here to bet
Tadej Pogacar 1.70
Jonas Vingegaard 5.00
Thymen Arensman 21.00
Enric Mas Nicolau 21.00
Carlos Rodriguez 23.00
Ben Healy 23.00
Felix Gall 26.00
Valentin Paret-Peintre 26.00
Santiago Buitrago 34.00
Michael Storer 34.00Pavel Bittner 41.00
Jonas Abrahamsen 41.00
BET: Vingegaard Win at 5.00
Vingegaard is looking increasingly strong, and while clawing back a four-minute deficit may be unlikely, he can certainly use his team to apply pressure on Pogacar. With the right tactics and timing, I believe Vingegaard has what it takes to win the stage.
This bet comes with insurance for 2nd place – see below
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All prices correct at the time of posting but subject to change.
