Stage 1 of the Tour de France starts and finishes in Bilbao on Saturday and the riders face a hilly 182 km route which looks a real head scratcher for punters.
It is not often we get an opening stage where the winner could range from a really strong sprinter to a GC favourite. Ruling favourites Pogacar and Vingegaard will no doubt be keeping a close eye on each other and you can click here for our Preview of all of the Major Jerseys.
The opening stage of the Tour de France is one where the early break usually goes quickly before the sprinters teams reel them back in towards the end of the stage. I am not necessarily expecting that on Saturday though with a couple of early climbs providing launch pads for a strong break. Once the break goes it will be interesting to see which team keeps it in check and I have to bet on Alaphilippe’s Quick Step outfit to control the break, but there are a number of other teams that could step forward.
There is an intermediate sprint after 88.2 kms and we have 3 classified climbs in the last 50 kms. A Cat 2 climb of 4.2 kms at 7.3% peaking with just under 30 kms to go could be the launchpad for the stage winner. It is highly likely that the early break has been caught or is just ahead by this point and riders like Van Aert or Van Der Poel will make their moves here.
The reason for that is that the Cat 3 climb which peaks out at just under 10 kms from the end, this is an absolute wall with 2 kms averaging 10%, but the last kilometre doesn’t dip below 12% and if it is altogether at this point there could well be some GC action.
BETTING – Click here to bet
Tadej Pogacar 11/4
Mathieu Van Der Poel 5/1
Wout Van Aert 11/2
Tom Pidcock 12/1
Mattias Skjelmose 12/1
Jonas Vingegaard 12/1
Julian Alaphilippe 15/1
Pello Bilbao 22/1
33/1 and better the balance
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I won’t try and pretend that I have any idea of what is going to happen here and I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing the favourite Pogacar, my pick though is a Trek rider who has been bang in form namely Mattias Skjelmose priced at 12/1 at the time of writing. He has shown great speed and stamina on sharp steep climbs and although it is by no means a classified climb though the final kilometre rises at a rate that could put some of the faster men to the sword.
There is also a match betting which I normally like to get involved with as the Tour moves on and this year World Sports betting also have Podium Betting on the stages where Mattias Skjelmose is a 11/4 shot and if you fancy an outsider to run into the Top 10 consider someone like Biniam Girmay at 7/1. There is a good chance he is dropped on the final climb, but if he hangs in there he will be sprinting for Green Jersey points and might just grab that Top 10 place.
Suggested Bet: Mattias Skjelmose win at 12/1
Suggested Bet: Top 10 Finish, Biniam Girmay at 7/1
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
