The 2023 Tour de France gets going in Bilbao on Saturday and we take a look at the Classifications from a betting angle.
OUTRIGHT WINNER / YELLOW JERSEY – Click here to bet
Bookmakers have priced this one up as a two horse race and it most likely is.
Defending Champion, Jonas Vingegaard is 11/10 level in the betting with the man who won the previous 2 years, Tadej Pogacar, Jai Hindley is a weak 3rd favourite at 14/1 (weak in betting terms) with Richard Carapaz 28/1 and you can get 33/1 and better the balance.
I can’t look past the top two in the betting and will settle for a punt on Pogacar who is coming back from a wrist injury, but showed me enough earlier in the year to suggest that he can get the better of his Danish rival.
Suggested Bet: Pogacar win at 11/10
KING OF THE MOUNTAINS / POLKA DOT JERSEY – Click here to bet
King of the Mountains points are awarded on categorized climbs throughout the Tour and very often climbers not competing for the General Classification or Yellow Jersey end up contesting this. The last few years though Yellow Jersey contenders have dominated and the fact that Pogacar and Vingegaard are disputing favoritism at 7/2 suggests that we could have more of the same this year.
It is quite an interesting Tour with more climbs in the first week than what we are used to seeing and this might give riders a chance to get in the breakaway and possibly get much needed points. That been said the finish of those stages could also be run by the favourites and with so many points up for grabs on the Queen stage in the final week I find myself leaning to one of the big two winning this.
Giulio Ciccone is a rider capable of taking the jersey and he is 9/2 in the betting and has declared his intent to go for the jersey and you can get 18/1 and better the balance.
I am not going to get too involved in this one, but I will have a speculative nibble on Richard Carapaz, a previous Grand Tour Winner, at 18/1. If he does get in the hunt he certainly has the climbing legs to get in breakaways and even contest for points from the lead group.
Suggested Bet: Carapaz, King of the Mountains at 18/1
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POINTS CLASSIFICATION / GREEN JERSEY – Click here to bet
Points are gathered throughout the route with intermediate sprints as well as points awarded for your finishing position in a stage. The points are weighted towards what are expected to be sprint stages with mountain stage finishes carrying less weight.
Jasper Philipsen is an even money favourite ahead of Woud Van Aert, who would certainly win this if he was focused on it, but is riding this year more in support of his Team Leader, Vingegaard and there is also a chance that he could leave the Tour early if his wife gives birth to their child.
Fabio Jakobsen is another fast man priced at 9/2, but I am going to go for a double digit winner here in Biniam Girmay currently priced at 11/1. Girmay is not quite as quick as Jakobsen and Philipsen, but I expect him to take some points in bunch sprints and he is capable of getting points on some of those stages where the pure sprinters may not survive the climbs to contest the finish. I also think his team will be largely focused on the Green Jersey which is very important when it comes down to chasing breaks or getting you into breaks that can accumulate points.
Suggested Bet: Biniam Girmay, Green Jersey Winner at 11/1
Team Classification – Click here to bet
I love betting on the Team Classifications, but it is often very volatile as teams goals change throughout the race. A team like Jumbo-visma for example have the GC favourite and are not interested in the Team competition, but if something happened to Vingegaard in the first week, their goals would change and suddenly they could be focusing on the Team standings.
Ineos Grenadiers have a solid team, but are unlikely to contest the overall victory and they are priced at 7/4 favourites ahead of Bahrain Merida 3/1, who often focus on team competitions. Movistar are 5/1 and you can get 11/2 Ef Education-easy Post with 9/1 and better the balance.
I am once again going to stick my neck out for an outrider here and will back Ag2r at 16/1. They are a French team and this competition certainly holds some value to them and they have a very strong climbing team with riders capable of getting into breakaways which is often where the Team Classification is decided.
Suggested Bet: Ag2r, Team Classification win at 16/1
I am not going to preview the Young Rider Classification where Pogacar is still eligible for the White Jersey and is the 1/4 favourite ahead of Rodriguez at 7/1.
Look out for our Individual Stage Previews
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
