Stage 4 of the Tour de France takes place on Tuesday and is the first mountain stage. The race starts in Pinerolo, Italy and travels to the French Alps where it finishes in Valloire 139.6km later.
Stage 3 Wrap
For the 3rd stage in a row we had an outsider winning as Eritrea’s Biniam Girmay won a thrilling sprint to take his first-ever victory at the Tour de France. He beat home Fernando Gaviria and Arnaud de Lie and hot favourite, Jasper Philipsen didn’t contest the finish due to a massive crash in the charging peloton.
The stage itself was even less animated than predicted as it became clear early on that no-one wanted to get into the breakaway that was ultimately doomed. The peloton rode tempo pretty much all the way to the final 40 kilometres when the battle for position began.
There was a big crash in the final kilometres ruining the chances of Philipson and Cavendish.
Jersey Update
Richard Carapaz got himself into the Yellow Jersey by finishing ahead of Tadej Pogacar who along with Evenepoel and Vingegaard remain level with him on time. There has been no significant change to the Yellow Jersey betting and Pogacar is 5/6 with Vingegaard 12/10.
Also no significant change to the King of the Mountains, but there has been something of a shake-up in the Green Jersey race where Girmay has moved into 2nd place, 10 points behind Abrahamsen and Mads Pedersen is a further 7 points behind in 4th. Philipsen remains the favourite but has drifted to 1/1 and Girmay is into 6/1.
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STAGE 4 ROUTE
The race moves back into France on Tuesday and we have a short, but tough stage with a much earlier entry into the mountains than usual. The riders climb virtually from the gun as they tackle the first CAT 2 climb which stretches 39.9 kms at an average of 3.7%. A short descent is followed by another CAT 2 climb of 8.3 kms at 5.9% and after descending that climb the riders get set for the Col du Galibier, an out-of-category climb measuring 23 kms at 5.1%. Then there is a fast descent to the finish.
The race should be on from the gun and there is every chance of action amongst the General Classification candidates
STAGE 4 TACTICS
I expect there will be a massive battle to get into the break and we will get a number of riders (most likely good climbers who are well off the Yellow Jersey) forming the days breakaway. EF Education will no doubt ride to protect Carapaz’s Yellow Jersey and I also have a feeling that UAE and Pogacar may have targeted this stage to try and test Vingegaard who to-date has looked in superb form.
STAGE 4 BETTING – Click here to bet
Tadej Pogacar – 5/2
Jonas Vingegaard – 11/1
Remco Evenepoel – 14/1
Tom Pidcock – 14/1
Wout Poels – 22/1
Lenny Martinez – 25/1
Derek Gee – 25/1
Primoz Roglic – 25/1
Pello Bilbao – 25/1
28/1 and better the balance, odds subject to change
PREDICTION
Although a tough stage it is fairly short and a team like UAE should be able to control. We have had 3 upsets already but I am backing Pogacar to deliver for the punters and crucially this comes with some insurance for 2nd place – see below
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BET: Pogacar Win at 5/2
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Prices correct at time of writing but subject to change
