The Tour de France starts in Florence on Saturday the 29th of June and for the first time ever the race will not finish in Paris, but with an individual time-trial in Nice. We take a look at this incredible 3 week race from a betting angle.
THE RACE
The Tour de France is 3492 kilometres long and comprises 21 stages, 2 of those stages are individual time-trials and the rest are split between hilly, mountains and flat stages, meaning there is something for everyone.
The first two stages promise to provide plenty of action as they are both classified as hilly and we may well get some General Classification action early on and we don’t have to wait long for our first mountain stage on Tuesday the 2nd of July.
There are a number of different Classifications with the big prize, of course, the overall winner or Yellow Jersey.
YELLOW JERSEY CONTENDERS – click here to bet
Tadej Pogacar from the UAE team is looking to become the first man since Marco Pantani in 1998 to do the Giro-Tour double. He won the Giro with plenty in hand, but the question is whether his body can sustain another 3 week effort so soon after that victory.
Pogacar is the 4/7 favourite ahead of the two-time defending Champion, Jonas Vingegaard at 2/1. Vingegaard looked excellent earlier in the season, but was caught up in a terrible crash a couple of months back and has not had any preparation races, however, it is unlikely his team would have entered him had they not felt he could win. Vingegaard will no doubt be tested in the early stages, but he is one of those rare riders who get stronger throughout a Grand Tour and if he can be in contention coming into the 3rd week, there is every chance of winning.
Primoz Roglic is 8/1 and left Jonas Vingegaard’s team in the hope of getting his own crack at Tour de France glory. Like Pogacar and Vingegaard he has a strong team around him, but he would need to find something on the form he showed in the lead-up to the tour.
Remco Evenepoel was another who was caught in a crash which disrupted his preparation and he has been reported as being sick as well. He is priced at 14/1 and although a Grand Tour winner he still needs to convince me he has the ability to win the Tour de France over 3 gruelling weeks.
Pogacar’s teammates, Yates 28/1 and Ayuso 33/1 are next in the betting with Rodriguez and Jorgenson also priced at 33/1.
VERDICT
Pogacar is a worthy favourite, but at 4/7 I am not going to get involved at this stage. I am going to have a small interest in the Straight Forecast where Pogacar to win from Roglic is trading at 6/1
Suggested Bet: Straight Forecast, Pogacar 1st, Roglic 2nd at 6/1
Tour de France 2024
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THE POINTS CLASSIFICATION or GREEN JERSEY – click here to bet
This classification was designed to give the fast men something to aim for and riders accumulate points depending on where they finish in the stage and with the points loaded towards the flat stages. It is possible to grab the points out on the course though and quite often this classification has been won by a decent sprinter who can get over the mountains to pick up points when his opponents cannot.
Jasper Philipsen looks a worthy favourite at 4/6 as he is certainly one of the quickest men in the field and can also hang-in on some of the tough stages. Wout Van Aert is 6/1, but he returns from a bad injury and will also likely have to work for Vingegaard in the mountains. If he was fully fit and focused on this jersey he would be the favourite in my opinion.
I am going to have a bet on the 2nd favourite, Mads Pedersen at 5/1. Pedersen should be right up there in the sprint finishes, but he has also shown that he is capable of winning tough stages and at times climbs better than a lot of the other sprinters.
Suggested Bet: Mads Pedersen, Points Classification at 5/1
KING OF THE MOUNTAINS or POLKA DOT JERSEY – click here to bet
This should in theory go to the best climber, but is not always the case and riders will be looking to get into breakaways to put themselves in contention for this jersey. Quite often though, one of the podium finishers wins this race almost by default just because they are involved in the business-end of the mountain stages.
Also look out for Podium contenders who have a rough start to the race and change focus to the KOM>
Pogacar 33/10 and Ciccone 9/2 are the favourites here, but I am going to have a play on Felix Gall who finished 8th in last year’s Tour de France and showed in the Dauphine that he is coming back to form. If he falls out of contention early he may well target this jersey.
Suggest Bet: Gall to win KOM at 16/1
Carlos Rodriguez is the 12/10 favourite to win the White Jersey for the Young Rider and the UAE are the 4/7 favourites to win the Team Classification and it is not hard to see why when you see the strength of their line-up.
Cycling can be very unpredictable over 3 weeks and most of my betting interests will be on the Stages with previews for each and every stage covered on this Blog.
Click here for all of the Tour de France 2024 Betting
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
