The UFC returns to Brazil on Saturday the 11th of October (early hours of the 12th in South Africa) with an action-packed card. The event takes place at the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, headlined by a pivotal lightweight clash between former champion Charles Oliveira and Polish contender Mateusz Gamrot. We take a closer look at the main event and two key supporting bouts from a betting perspective below.
CHARLES OLIVEIRA vs MATEUSZ GAMROT
Lightweight – Main Event
Charles Oliveira returns home to Rio eager to remind the division why he’s one of the greatest finishers in the organisation’s history. With a UFC record of 23 wins, 11 losses, and 1 no contest since his 2010 debut, the Brazilian submission artist has earned victories over elite names such as Dustin Poirier, Justin Gaethje, Michael Chandler, and Beneil Dariush.
His last outing ended in disappointment, as he was stopped by Ilia Topuria in the first round at UFC 317 in June for the title, but Oliveira’s resilience and finishing instincts have never been in doubt. Holding the record for most submissions (16) and most finishes (20) in UFC history, the former lightweight champion remains a constant threat both on the feet and on the ground.
Mateusz Gamrot, representing Poland, enters this bout on the back of a strong run that has seen him win 8 of his 11 UFC appearances in his career which spans roughly 5 years. Gamrot’s combination of clean striking and incredible stamina make him one of the most technically complete strikers in the division.
With wins over Rafael Fiziev, Jalin Turner, and Arman Tsarukyan, the Polish contender has proven his durability inside the Octagon. After edging out Ludovit Klein by unanimous decision in June, Gamrot now looks to take one of the biggest jumps of his career in Oliveira and push himself back toward title contention.
BETTING
Oliveira 1.95
Gamrot 1.87
PREDICTION:
Oliveira’s dangerous submission game and experience in five-round wars give him the edge early, but Gamrot’s relentless pressure will test the Brazilian’s offense as the fight wears on. I am expecting Oliveira to hunt for finishes from every position, but in the end, I feel he gets this done by decision.
DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO vs MONTEL JACKSON
Bantamweight – Co-Main Event
Deiveson Figueiredo, the former flyweight king continues his campaign at 135lbs after a tough TKO loss to Cory Sandhagen in May. Despite recent setbacks, the Brazilian powerhouse remains one of the most explosive finishers in the lighter divisions, boasting a UFC record of 13 wins, 5 losses, and 1 draw since his first fight in 2017.
Known for his heavy hands, slick submissions, and unpredictable attack, Figueiredo has previously held the flyweight title twice, defeating names such as Brandon Moreno, Joseph Benavidez, and Alex Perez. Fighting in front of his home fans in Rio, he will look to remind everyone of his knockout power and champion pedigree with a statement victory.
Montel Jackson enters this fight riding a wave of confidence after winning 9 of his 11 UFC bouts since debuting in 2018. The American has developed into a well-rounded striker with crisp boxing and impressive reach.
Jackson’s recent unanimous decision win over Daniel Marcos in May extended his streak to six straight victories, solidifying his place among the best in the bantamweight. His precise jab, control of distance, and measured pace could prove effective against Figueiredo’s aggressive bursts.
BETTING
Figueiredo 3.75
Jackson 1.29
PREDICTION:
Figueiredo’s aggression and power make him dangerous in the early rounds, and although Jackson’s length and composure could allow him to take control if he survives the initial storm, I am predicting a late knockout win for Figueiredo.
VICENTE LUQUE vs JOEL ÁLVAREZ
Welterweight – Main Card Bout
Vicente Luque returns to action looking to rebound from a submission loss to Kevin Holland in June. A veteran of 22 appearances under the institution over a time span of more than a decade. Luque owns one of the most entertaining fighting styles in the promotion’s history. With 16 wins inside the UFC, including finishes over Michael Chiesa, Tyron Woodley, and Belal Muhammad, the Brazilian combines durability with effective striking and dangerous submissions.
Despite recent ups and downs, Luque remains a constant trouble capable of ending a fight at any moment.
Joel Álvarez of Spain, has quietly built an impressive resume since debuting for the UFC in 2019, going 7–2 inside the Octagon. Álvarez’s striking precision and intense submission game have earned him finishes in nearly all of his wins and he is coming off a first-round knockout when he took on Drakkar Klose last December.
Álvarez now faces his toughest test yet against a proven veteran Luque.
BETTING
Luque 5.25
Álvarez 1.18
PREDICTION:
Luque will press forward with combinations and leg kicks, while Álvarez will look to keep range and capitalize on his reach advantage. If the fight hits the mat, both men are capable grapplers, but Luque’s experience and power might prove decisive, making him my pick at a big price.
SUGGESTED BETS:
Oliveira vs Gamrot
Oliveira at 1.95
Figueiredo vs Jackson
Figueiredo at 3.75
Luque vs Álvarez
Luque at 5.25
It is a weekend where I am not strong an anything but am hunting big prices, and all 3 of my fighters to win is over 38/1.
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Note: All prices are correct at the time of writing but subject to change.
