The UFC returns to Abu Dhabi on Saturday the 25th of October for an entertaining night at the Etihad Arena. Headlined by a heavyweight title fight between Tom Aspinall Ciryl Gane, we break down the key fights from a betting perspective.
Click here to bet on the full fight card
TOM ASPINALL vs CIRYL GANE
Heavyweight – Main Event – Title Fight
Tom Aspinall has taken the UFC by storm since debuting in 2020, compiling a record of eight wins and one loss inside the Octagon. The English powerhouse has displayed incredible composure and finishing ability, with eight of his nine victories coming by stoppage and notably seven of these were in the first round.
After dispatching Curtis Blaydes, Sergei Pavlovich, and Marcin Tybura just one minute into each fight, Aspinall has proven he possesses both power and technique at championship level. His blend of speed and timing makes him one of the most complete heavyweights in recent years
Ciryl Gane brings a high level of experience at the top of the division and elite striking into the cage. Since entering the UFC in 2019, Gane has built a record of ten wins and two losses within the organisation. Known for his brutal striking and footwork, Gane has beaten big names including Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa.
Despite setbacks against Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou, the Frenchman has rebounded with strong performances over Serghei Spivac and most recently Alexander Volkov where he won by split decision in December. Gane’s fluid movement and counter striking remain his greatest weapons as he seeks to reclaim heavyweight gold this weekend.
BETTING – click here to bet
Aspinall 1.26
Gane 4.00
PREDICTION:
Aspinall’s explosiveness and well-rounded game should be the difference here. I am expecting the champion to retain his belt via first or second-round KO after a fast paced striking exchange.
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VIRNA JANDIROBA vs MACKENZIE DERN
Women’s Strawweight – Co-Main Event – Title Fight
Virna Jandiroba has quietly established herself as one of the most consistent strawweight’s in the UFC, holding a record of eight wins and three losses under the institution. The Brazilian submission expert has been dominant in her recent run, earning five consecutive victories, including over Amanda Lemos, Loopy Godínez, and the last time she fought was in April against Yan Xiaonan where she won by decision.
Her elite grappling, top pressure, and improved striking have made her a genuine title threat, and she enters Abu Dhabi in peak form in terms of cardio as well.
Mackenzie Dern, the Brazilian, is known for her talent in the field of jiu-jitsu and brings vast experience to the octagon with ten wins and five losses in her UFC tenure which dates back to 2018. Known for her submission skills and aggressive guard play, Dern has claimed notable wins over Amanda Ribas, Angela Hill, and Nina Nunes.
She has rebounded from recent losses to earn two wins, including a submission over Amanda Ribas earlier this year in January. It is also worth noting that she beat Jandiroba by decision the first time they met five years ago.
BETTING – click here to bet
Jandiroba 2.35
Dern 1.63
PREDICTION:
This could be a tight technical battle, but I think Dern’s wrestling and control from top position should earn her a decision victory and the strawweight crown.
UMAR NURMAGOMEDOV vs MARIO BAUTISTA
Bantamweight – Main Card Bout
Umar Nurmagomedov continues to build on the family legacy with a near perfect record of six wins and one loss within the organisation. The Dagestani’s standout blend of slick striking, wrestling, and elite fight IQ has seen him beat the likes of Cory Sandhagen, Raoni Barcelos, and Brian Kelleher.
Despite a recent title fight decision defeat to Merab Dvalishvili when they met in January, he remains one of the most well-rounded contenders in this weight class.
Mario Bautista enters the matchup in top form, riding an eight-fight UFC winning streak that includes victories over José Aldo and Ricky Simon. The American has evolved into a versatile striker-grappler hybrid, capable of adapting to his opponents and grinding out wins against solid competition.
The last time he stepped into the cage was in June where he picked up a decision triumph over Patchy Mix at UFC 316.
BETTING – click here to bet
Nurmagomedov 1.16
Bautista 5.75
PREDICTION:
Nurmagomedov’s pace and chain wrestling should neutralize Bautista’s rhythm. I think a dominant decision win for Nurmagomedov is on the cards this Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS:
Aspinall vs Gane
Aspinall by KO/TKO at 2.10
Jandiroba vs Dern
Dern by decision at 4.25
Nurmagomedov vs Bautista
Nurmagomedov by decision at 1.65
The above treble works out to odds of 14.73
Note: All prices are correct at the time of writing but subject to change.
