With four teams remaining, let’s take a look at both semi-finals taking place this Thursday, where we suggest a bet for each one.
Bayer Leverkusen continues to gain support and is the resounding favourite to win at 8/10, followed by Atalanta at 16/5. Third-placed Roma can be snapped up at 5/1, with Olympique Marseille offered at 9/1.
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AS ROMA v BAYER LEVERKUSEN– Click here to bet
AS Roma will host Bayer Leverkusen this Thursday, hoping to replicate last year’s journey to the final by overcoming the same opponents in the exact same semi-final route as last season. Under the guidance of Daniele De Rossi, Roma have performed exceptionally well.
The Giallorossi enter this round after defeating Italian rivals AC Milan 3-1 on aggregate in the quarter-finals, winning both legs respectively. Their European campaign has been particularly impressive, with five wins and one draw at the Stadio Olimpico, where they are yet to taste defeat. In terms of overall performance, Roma heads into this crucial first leg after a draw with Napoli over the weekend. Domestically, they currently sit 5th in the league, 4 points adrift of Bologna, who currently occupy the remaining Champions League spot for next season. With 3 fixtures remaining, the Giallorossi will have to maintain their composure both in Europe as well as domestically if they are to achieve success on both fronts this season.
Roma have averaged 2.66 goals per game at home in Europe this season with over 2.5 goals arriving in 66.6% of those games (4 out of 6)
Bayer Leverkusen is undoubtedly the team everyone would have wanted to avoid. What Xabi Alonso has achieved is truly remarkable, as they extended their unbeaten streak to 46 with a 2-2 draw against Stuttgart over the weekend.
The Black and Reds advanced to the UEFA Europa League semi-finals after defeating West Ham 3-1 on aggregate in the previous round. Leverkusen has demonstrated great strength away from home in Europe, winning all three group stage fixtures and drawing two in the knockout rounds out of their allotted five on the road. With their recent Bundesliga crowning, Bayer Leverkusen can now fully focus on Europe without any excuses for unnecessary distractions.
Bayer Leverkusen have averaged 1.6 goals per game away from home in Europe this season with under 2.5 goals arriving in 60% of those games (3 out of 5)
Head-to-Head
Roma won 1-0 in last year’s semi-final against Bayer Leverkusen in the first leg at home with the return leg resulting in a 0-0 draw.
Verdict
This looks set to be a fiercely contested encounter between two sides that have performed extremely well this season. The hosts will be hoping for a lead to take to Germany, aiming to replicate last season’s heroics. Despite both teams playing expansive football, given the magnitude and what transpired in last year’s semi-final between these two, I’m inclined to back a more conservative line that involves an unders call.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Total: Roma/Draw and under 3.5 at 12/10
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OLYMPIQUE MARSEILLE v ATALANTA– Click here to bet
Olympique Marseille will host Atalanta at the Stade Vélodrome, knowing that securing a lead is crucial if they are to capitalize on their home ground advantage in the first leg. Given their run of form on the domestic front, they will need to draw inspiration from their performance in Europe, where they have fared significantly better.
The Olympians progressed to the semi-finals of this year’s Europa League showdown after advancing 3-2 on aggregate in penalties against Benfica. Marseille has heavily relied on home soil in Europe to reach this point, registering five wins and one draw at the Stade Vélodrome. However, they have struggled to balance European commitments with domestic affairs, having recorded just one win from six Ligue 1 outings and currently placed 7th on the log.
Marseille have averaged 2.83 goals per game at home in Europe this season with over 2.5 goals arriving in 83.3% of those games (5 out of 6)
Atalanta progressed 3-1 on aggregate over firm favourites Liverpool in the previous round of the Europa League, securing their place in this season’s semi-finals. With a stunning 3-0 upset at Anfield in the 1st leg, The Black and Blues established themselves firmly in the driving seat, leveraging the advantage of home ground comfort and a 3-goal cushion.
The Nerazzurri quickly established themselves in the tournament by maintaining a superb record on the road, registering 3 wins and 2 draws en route to the semi-finals. Domestically, Atalanta sits 6th, trailing Roma by 2 points, who currently occupy next season’s Europa League group stage placing. With three consecutive victories, including back-to-back league wins, they enter this round with the firm belief they can progress to the finals, given their impressive away form in Europe.
Atalanta have averaged 2.4 goals per game away from home in Europe this season with over 2.5 goals arriving in 80% of those games (4 out of 5)
Verdict
Arguments can be made for both sides, considering Atalanta’s ruthlessness away from home and Marseille’s recovery with equal vigour on their home turf in Europe. The Olympians were guilty of conceding 2 or more goals twice at home in the group stages, and although they have tightened up since then in the knockout stages, I believe Atalanta can replicate the sort of damage they inflicted on Liverpool by scoring at least 2 away from home.
Suggested Bet: Atalanta Totals, Over 1.5 at 15/10
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
