We take a look at both second legs of the Europa League semi-finals taking place on Thursday and we suggest a bet for each one.
Bayer Leverkusen continues to gain support and is the resounding favourite to win at 4/9, followed by Atalanta at 3/1. Third-placed favourite, Olympique Marseille, is currently on offer at 10/1, with unlikely contenders Roma drifting out to a massive 33/1.
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ATALANTA v OLYMPIQUE MARSEILLE– Click here to bet
Atalanta will host Olympique Marseille this Thursday at the Gewiss Stadium, hoping to secure a place in this season’s Europa League final for the first time in the club’s history. With the first leg delicately poised after ending in a 1-1 draw, Atalanta will certainly fancy their chances given their dominant European record at home this season.
The Nerazzurri have been near perfect at home in their quest for European silverware, tasting defeat just once against Liverpool in a tie that was already secure after their dominant performance away to the Reds. The Black and Blues have registered 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss thus far and will no doubt want to add Thursday’s encounter to the winning list.
Domestically, they are currently 5th on the table, having registered 18 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses. Atalanta is coming off a 2-1 win over Salernitana this past Monday, hoping to make further progress, knowing they have a game in hand in an attempt to qualify for the Champions League next season.
Atalanta have averaged 1.2 goals per game at home in Europe this season with under 2.5 goals arriving in 80% of those games (4 out of 5)
Olympique Marseille will be well aware that entering Gewiss Stadium all square certainly places them in a far less desirable position this Thursday. With nothing to defend, the Olympians have it all to do if they are to contain the hosts in order to progress to the final. However, there is one factor that will favour Marseille, their regular appearances in Europe, which could potentially pay dividends on the night.
To ensure that outcome, the Olympians will need a significant improvement in their away performances in Europe this season, especially considering their consecutive defeats on the road in the knockout stages, taking their overall tally to just 1 win, 2 draws, suffering 3 defeats in the process.
Domestically, Marseille currently occupy 9th place on the table, hoping to make a late surge with 3 games remaining. They have registered 11 wins, 11 draws, and 9 losses to date. Having not featured this weekend on the domestic front, it will certainly help their cause in Europe, allowing them the best opportunity to focus on the task at hand.
Olympique Marseille have averaged 1.5 goals per game away from home in Europe this season with over 2.5 goals arriving 66.66% of those games (4 out of 6)
Head-to-Head
Last week’s first leg encounter was the first time these two paired up, resulting in a 1-1 draw.
Verdict
The hosts have looked solid throughout their campaign and appear to be the way to go here, despite Marseille offering threats upfront with the tournament’s leading goal-scorer, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (10 goals).
Having kept just one clean sheet away from home in Europe, the Olympians will have to adopt a positive game plan. I fancy both teams finding the net, with home ground advantage making all the difference.
Suggested Bet: Result and Both teams to score, Atalanta and yes at 26/10
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BAYER LEVERKUSEN v AS ROMA– Click here to bet
Bayer Leverkusen ran out comfortable winners in the 1st leg, obtaining an impressive 2-0 win away from home, placing them firmly in pole position to potentially secure their place in the Europa League final.
The Black and Reds have been ruthless throughout this season and will look to continue their flawless campaign at home this Thursday. Boasting a 100% record with 5 wins from 5 games at the BayArena in Europe, Alonso and his charges will look to dominate once again. Despite going into the 2nd leg with a 2-goal cushion, they will leave nothing to chance as they continue to astound and break records along the way.
Domestically, Bayer Leverkusen secured their first-ever Bundesliga title a few weeks back, but that hasn’t stopped them from dominating week in and week out on the local front. They enter the 2nd leg off a crushing 5-1 win over Frankfurt away from home, further extending their unbeaten run to 48 games in all competitions, equalling Benfica’s 59-year-old European record. This Thursday, they will have an opportunity to overtake that record when they meet Roma at home.
Bayer Leverkusen have averaged 3.8 goals per game at home in Europe this season with over 2.5 goals arriving in 80% of those games (4 out of 5).
AS Roma were made to look ordinary in last week’s 1st leg performance, despite having the 2nd highest goal scorer in the tournament at their disposal. Romelu Lukaku was kept at bay for the most part as he vented his frustration on the pitch. With a 2-goal deficit to overturn, Daniele De Rossi will have to pull out every stop if they are to achieve what nobody has this season: beating Bayer Leverkusen.
The Giallorossi certainly have their work cut out for them if they are to make the final of this year’s Europa League in Dublin. There will be concerns as they have nothing to show for their efforts from the 1st leg, given their mixed performance on the road. Roma’s away record has seen a blend of results, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats so far. Their performances have been relatively low-key away from home, reflecting a negative-1 goal difference in Europe, a worrying stat considering their upcoming opponents and their achievements thus far.
With 3 games remaining in the domestic league, AS Roma currently occupies 6th place on the table, boasting 17 wins, 9 draws, and 9 defeats so far. With only a 4-point differential between them and Bologna, AS Roma is at risk of missing out on the Champions League and could potentially fail to qualify for the Europa League altogether, especially with Atalanta directly above them on goal difference with a game in hand. This places more emphasis on their current campaign, considering there are no guarantees for next season.
AS Roma have averaged 0.83 goals per game away from home in Europe this season with under 2.5 goals arriving 66.66% of those games (4 out of 6).
Head-to-Head
Both teams had to settle for a 0-0 draw in this exact fixture last season (Europa League Semi-Final).
Verdict
What a difference a season makes. Roma may have progressed to last year’s Europa League final at Bayer Leverkusen’s expense, but it looks as though the tides have turned, and fortune now favours the hosts. With a 2-goal cushion, Bayer Leverkusen will have the luxury of dictating terms, especially considering Roma’s recent struggles on the road.
The Italian side has failed to find the net in their last two encounters against the Black and Reds. With the hosts expected to control possession, this could prove to be a profitable option. I anticipate a clinical performance from the hosts, which could further frustrate the visitors.
Suggested Bet: Totals, Under 2.5 at 23/20
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
