Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal face off at the Parc des Princes on Wednesday night in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League semi-final, with the French champions holding a slender 1-0 advantage from the first leg. With a spot in the final on the line, we take a look at how both teams are shaping up ahead of this crucial showdown — below are my thoughts, along with a suggested bet to consider.
Before doing so, let’s have a look at the outright markets. PSG have now moved into favouritism at 12/10 following last week’s results, with Barcelona next in line at 9/4. Inter Milan are priced at 4/1, while Arsenal are the outsiders at 7/1 as they look to overturn a first-leg deficit.
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PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN v ARSENAL – Click here to bet
Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal will battle it out in the French capital on Wednesday night with a coveted spot in the Champions League final up for grabs. Following a disciplined 1-0 win at the Emirates in the first leg, PSG return home with a slender but potentially decisive advantage.
With the Ligue 1 title wrapped up weeks ago, Luis Enrique has been able to fully prioritise European success. That focus was evident once again over the weekend, as the Spaniard made ten changes to his starting XI for the trip to Strasbourg, resulting in a 2-1 defeat—their second consecutive league loss. But the message was clear: Europe is the main prize. The same strategy was employed ahead of the first leg in London, and it paid off handsomely with a valuable away victory.
PSG now return to the Parc des Princes, where their home record in Europe this season has been strong, though not flawless. The French champions have won four, drawn one, and lost two of their seven continental home fixtures — with just two clean sheets to show for it. Their matches have consistently delivered action, with 24 goals scored across those seven games (an average of 3.4 per match). Given that four of those encounters have seen over 2.5 goals land, there’s a slight edge toward another open affair on Wednesday.
Arsenal, meanwhile, will be reeling from a 2-1 home defeat to Bournemouth over the weekend—a result that could have lasting consequences. Unlike PSG, Mikel Arteta couldn’t afford to make wholesale changes due to the tight Premier League race for European qualification, and that decision may have backfired. The Gunners now sit just three points above third-placed Manchester City and enter this clash winless in their last three matches across all competitions (D1, L2), casting a psychological shadow over their trip to Paris.
Still, Arsenal’s Champions League campaign has been a source of inspiration this season, with the Gunners winning an impressive nine of their 13 matches overall. They’ve suffered just one away defeat in Europe—against Inter Milan on match week four—and responded with four consecutive road victories. Their overall away record in the competition stands at four wins, one draw, and one loss. It’s an encouraging return, and their fixtures have consistently delivered entertainment, with 21 goals scored across six matches—an average of just over three per game.
With PSG holding the slightest of edges from the first leg and the tie delicately poised, Wednesday’s clash promises to be another tense, high-quality encounter. The Parisians have history within their grasp, but Arsenal—despite recent setbacks—still possess the quality to turn this around, provided they can rediscover their cutting edge in the final third.
Head-to-Head
Last week’s 1-0 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain was Arsenal’s first loss to the French side, having gone unbeaten in their previous five encounters. Their most recent visit to Paris came in 2016, when the sides played out a 1-1 draw.
Betting
Paris Saint-Germain 11/10
Draw 27/10
Arsenal 12/5
Verdict
I’m going against the grain with this one. While both teams have been involved in high-scoring encounters in Europe this season, last week’s 1-0 first-leg result reflected a different type of contest—one that could be replicated here, unless tempers flare. With a 1-0 lead and the advantage of having rested key players over the weekend, PSG to win or draw with under 3.5 goals looks the value play. The hosts are likely to approach this cautiously, with no need to take unnecessary risks, while Arsenal—struggling for form—may find it difficult to break through PSG’s defence for the second week in a row.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Total – Paris Saint-Germain/Draw and Under 3.5 at 1/1
Top of Form
Bottom of Form
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
