The final round of the UEFA Champions League 2024/25 league phase takes centre stage this Wednesday, with plenty still to play for as teams battle for progression and playoff positions. In this preview, we focus on three key matches, offering insights, and identifying potential value in the betting market.
Before we get started, let’s take a quick look at the latest outright odds. Liverpool lead the pack as favourites at 4/1, with defending champions Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Arsenal close behind at 6/1. Bayern Munich follow at 9/1, while Manchester City trail at 10/1. All other contenders are priced at 16/1 or higher.
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VFB STUTTGART v PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN – Click here to bet
The final match day of the inaugural UEFA Champions League 2024/25 league phase brings an intriguing clash between VfB Stuttgart and Paris Saint-Germain, with both clubs fighting for their place in the knockout round play-offs. Stuttgart sit 24th with 10 points and a goal difference of -1, while PSG are 22nd with 10 points and a goal difference of +2. Both teams could potentially progress with a draw in this crucial encounter, but the mathematical nuances make for a tense finale.
VfB Stuttgart enter this match knowing that a draw will likely see them through to the knockout round play-offs, with only a huge 11-goal victory for Dinamo Zagreb over Milan threatening their spot. With two consecutive wins in the UCL, Stuttgart have found some form in Europe, but they come into this match off the back of a disappointing 2-0 defeat at home to Mainz on the domestic front. Historically, their European home form hasn’t been great, having won just one of their last ten home matches, so they’ll need to break that trend if they are to hold their ground against a PSG outfit that will be brimming with confidence after last week’s performance.
Champions League Form: W3 D1 L3
Over the course of 7 games, Stuttgart have averaged 1.71 goals scored per match and 1.86 goals conceded per match. With over 2.5 goals appearing in 57% of their fixtures (4 out of 7), a trend that is likely to continue Wednesday evening.
Paris Saint-Germain are in a similar situation to Stuttgart, needing just a point to confirm their place in the knockout play-offs. The French side are 22nd in the standings with 10 points and a goal difference of +2. Their dramatic 4-2 comeback win over Manchester City on match day seven reignited their hopes, and a draw against Stuttgart would secure their progression. PSG are also unbeaten in their last 12 matches across all competitions, a promising sign as they head into Wednesday’s crucial fixture in Germany, knowing what’s required.
Champions League Form: W3 D1 L3
Paris Saint-Germain have averaged 1.43 goals per game while conceding 1.14 per match in this season’s competition. Notably, under 2.5 goals have featured in 57% of their European fixtures so far (4 out of 7), highlighting the generally low-scoring nature of their games.
Head-to-Head
This will mark the inaugural competitive meeting between these two sides in Europe.
Betting
VfB Stuttgart 23/10
Draw 33/20
Paris Saint-Germain 7/4
Verdict
Given the draw might be enough for both teams, Stuttgart are likely to adopt a more conservative approach to secure their point. With the high stakes and the tight nature of the competition, I expect both sides to focus on defensive solidity rather than taking unnecessary risks. Under 2.5 goals will be my primary pick here, especially considering PSG’s relatively subdued performances in the tournament so far.
Suggested Bet: Totals, Under 2.5 at 5/6
INTER MILAN v MONACO – Click here to bet
In what promises to be a gripping UEFA Champions League clash, Inter Milan will host Monaco at the iconic San Siro. The stakes are high for both teams, albeit for different reasons. Inter are aiming to maintain their impressive home record and secure a place in the Round of 16, while Monaco, despite their uphill battle, still have an outside chance of finishing in the top 16, which would give them a seeded spot for the playoffs.
Fresh off a resounding 4-0 victory over Lecce in Serie A, Inter Milan head into Wednesday’s game with plenty to smile about. With 16 points and a +7 goal difference, they’re currently sitting 4th in the group and know that a point at home would seal their progression to the knockout stages. The San Siro has become a fortress for the Italians in European competition, with an unbeaten run of 12 consecutive home matches. However, they will be mindful of Monaco’s impressive progress, making this a potentially tricky encounter.
Champions League Form: W5 D1 L1
Inter Milan have scored 8 goals at an average of just 1.17 per match. However, it is their impressive defensive structure that has been their greatest strength, conceding just 1 goal at an average of 0.14 per match. Unsurprisingly, under 2.5 goals have been a consistent trend, occurring in 86% of their European matches (6 out of 7).
Monaco have enjoyed a solid Champions League campaign this season, earning 13 points and a goal difference of +3. However, securing a top eight finish remains a significant challenge. Currently 10th, they are within reach of automatic qualification, but their task is made more difficult by facing one of the toughest opponents this week at the San Siro, complicating their path further.
Monaco enter this match on the back of a hard-fought 3-2 victory over Rennes in Ligue 1, marking a welcome return to winning form domestically. The Red and Whites will be eager to carry that momentum into the Champions League, and with a decent head-to-head record against Inter Milan, Monaco will be hoping for a similar outcome on Wednesday evening. However, their shaky away record this season—having won just one of their last three road games—means they would settle for a point here, hoping it will be enough to secure a seeded playoff spot.
Champions League Record: W4 D1 L2
Monaco head into match day 8 with an average of 1.86 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded per match so far. With over 2.5 goals occurring in 71% of their European games (5 out of 7), it will be intriguing to see which trend prevails, given the contrasting statistics between these two sides.
Head-to-Head
Most recently, these two sides played out a 2-2 draw in a club friendly back in 2022.
Betting
Inter Milan 5/8
Draw 16/5
Monaco 9/2
Verdict
I simply cannot see anything other than a comfortable home win for Inter, especially given their exceptional defensive record, having conceded just one goal all tournament. While Monaco have managed to score in all but one match, they are likely to face a tough challenge, particularly on the road. Inter’s dominance on their own turf throughout the campaign makes it difficult to see anything other than a clean sheet victory for the hosts.
.Suggested Bet: Inter Milan to win to nil, Yes at 37/20
ASTON VILLA v CELTIC – Click here to bet
Aston Villa and Celtic will meet at Villa Park on Wednesday night in a pivotal UEFA Champions League clash, with both teams aiming to bolster their positions as the group stage nears its conclusion. While Aston Villa are still vying for a potential top eight finish, Celtic will be more focused on securing the best possible playoff position within the top 24.
Aston Villa are currently in 9th place with 13 points and a goal difference of +5. However, their 1-0 loss to Monaco in the previous round means they need a win, along with favourable results elsewhere, to break into the top eight and secure a spot in the last 16. Unai Emery’s team heads into this match following a 1-1 draw against West Ham over the weekend. While the performance wasn’t their most clinical, Villa can be forgiven for having one eye on Wednesday’s crucial fixture, given the importance of the upcoming clash.
Champions League Form: W4 D1 L2
Aston Villa have scored 9 goals in seven games, averaging 1.29 per match, while conceding just 4 (0.57 per game). Their strong home form will undoubtedly provide a crucial advantage, though they must improve their consistency in front of goal, having struggled to break down Monaco in their last outing. Matches with two goals or fewer have been a common theme, featuring in 71% of their European encounters (5 out of 7), as they continue to pride themselves on their solid defensive performances.
Celtic, on the other hand, moved up to 18th with 12 points after a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Young Boys at Celtic Park in their previous European outing. Brendan Rodgers’ side is in excellent form, currently on a six-match unbeaten streak with five wins and one draw. While a top eight finish remains a slim possibility, Celtic seem focused on securing a playoff berth and finishing as high as possible outside the top eight. Having not played over the weekend, Celtic will be the fresher of the two sides, which could give them an added advantage despite the trip to Birmingham for Wednesday’s crucial clash.
Champions League Form: W3 D3 L1
Celtic’s European campaign has been defined by narrow margins, with their defence often tested. While they’ve scored 11 goals (1.78 per game), they’ve conceded 10 (1.89 per game), which has been their Achilles’ heel. Three goals or more have featured in 57% of their games in Europe (4 out of 7).
Head-to-Head
This will mark the inaugural competitive meeting between these two sides in Europe.
Betting
Aston Villa 11/20
Draw 7/2
Celtic 9/2
Verdict
Aston Villa should come out on top in a match that could see more goals than expected. Despite Villa’s solid defensive record in the tournament, Celtic are likely to push forward, knowing their slim chances of a top eight finish. With both teams desperate for a result, backing both teams to score, along with a Villa win, seems like the best approach here.
Suggested Bet: Result and Both Teams to Score, Aston Villa and Yes at 39/20
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
