This Wednesday, we delve into two mouth-watering encounters set to take place in the UEFA Champions League, providing detailed insights along with betting suggestions for each match.
First, let’s examine the latest outright market odds. Despite their recent form, Manchester City remain the favourites at 9/2, followed closely by reigning champions Real Madrid and Barcelona, both priced at 11/2. Liverpool are next at 6/1, with Arsenal and Bayern Munich each at 9/1. All other contenders are listed at 18/1 or higher.
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ASTON VILLA v JUVENTUS – Click here to bet
Aston Villa return to action at Villa Park on Wednesday night, where they will host Juventus in a pivotal UEFA Champions League clash. Unai Emery’s side are currently 8th in the English Premier League with 19 points after a mixed domestic campaign, highlighted by their most recent 2-2 draw at home to Crystal Palace on Saturday. Despite twice falling behind, Villa showed resilience to claim a point, but that result extended their winless run across all competitions to six matches, with two draws and four defeats.
Villa’s home form in European competitions, however, remains a source of optimism, as this week the ‘Villains’ will certainly aim to continue where they left off in Europe. Currently 8th in the overall standings with 9 points in the Champions League, the hosts boast a superb record, particularly at home, where they have won seven of their last eight major European games at Villa Park, including a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Bayern Munich earlier this season, followed by an equally impressive 2-0 victory against Bologna in their most recent outing.
Champions League Form: W3 D0 L1
This season, Aston Villa average 1.5 goals per game in Europe while conceding an average of 0.25. Under 2.5 goals have featured in 75% of those encounters overall (3 out of 4 matches).
Juventus, meanwhile, travel to Villa Park sitting 6th in the Italian Serie A standings, reflecting an inconsistent domestic campaign. However, they are unbeaten in their last six matches across all competitions, with two wins and four draws. They have also kept back-to-back clean sheets, including a 0-0 draw away to AC Milan this past weekend, making that three clean sheets in their last six appearances. Not to be outdone by their defensive attributes, the Bianconeri have registered an impressive 11 goals during this unbeaten run and will be hoping to continue their recent resurgence when returning to the European stage this week.
That said, Juventus are without a win in their last two European outings, having suffered a frustrating 1-0 defeat at home to Stuttgart, followed by a 1-1 draw away to Lille. As a result, they find themselves in 11th place at the midway point of the group phase, still holding onto a playoff spot with 7 points. This week, however, could present another difficult obstacle for Thiago Motta’s side, given their notoriously poor record against English opposition. They have won just three times in their last fifteen European away games on English soil, drawing three and losing nine overall.
Champions League Form: W2 D1 L1
This season, Juventus average 1.75 goals per game in Europe while conceding an average of 1.25. Over 2.5 goals have featured in 50% of those encounters overall (2 out of 4 matches).
Head-to-Head
These two sides have faced each other just twice on the European stage, with Juventus triumphing on both occasions: a 2-1 win away to Villa followed by a 3-1 victory at home in the 1982/83 campaign.
Betting
Aston Villa 27/20
Draw 12/5
Juventus 85/40
Verdict
Despite their impressive run of form in Europe, Villa seem to have faltered a bit elsewhere of late. I’m not convinced the hosts can make it three wins in a row in this tournament at Villa Park this Wednesday, particularly given Juventus’ superior consistency. Considering the low-scoring nature of Villa’s European matches, don’t expect many goals this week either. A chance is taken on an unders play, with the visitors breaking their hoodoo on English soil and leaving with something positive for their efforts.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Total, Draw/Juventus and Under 3.5 at 1/1
LIVERPOOL v REAL MADRID – Click here to bet
Anfield will set the scene for what is undoubtedly the tie of week 5, as Liverpool host the reigning Champions, Real Madrid, this Wednesday. This encounter promises to be an epic clash between two of Europe’s elite, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. The Reds have been exceptional this season, both domestically and in Europe. Coming off a hard-fought 3-2 victory away to Southampton on Sunday, Liverpool are flying high in the Premier League, where they find themselves comfortably atop the standings with 31 points, holding an impressive 8-point lead over nearest rivals, Manchester City.
In Europe, Arne Slot’s side have been equally impressive, sitting at the top of the standings with a perfect record of four wins from four, accumulating a solid 12 points overall. Liverpool, meanwhile, have been ruthless in attack, scoring 10 goals so far this campaign while conceding just once in Europe and securing three consecutive clean sheet victories. Their latest triumph saw them dominate Bayer Leverkusen with a 4-0 home win earlier this month, highlighting their defensive resilience and clinical attacking play.
Champions League Form: W4 D0 L0
Yet to reach the standard we grew accustomed to seeing from Carlo Ancelotti’s side last season, Real Madrid will travel to Liverpool off the back of a 3-0 victory away to Leganés this past weekend, a result that keeps them in the hunt for the top spot domestically. They are currently 2nd in La Liga, four points adrift of Barcelona, with a game in hand, and have now registered back-to-back clean sheet wins in the league by a margin of three goals or more.
After four matches in Europe, Real Madrid currently occupy 18th place overall with just six points, having already suffered two defeats this season. Now that we have reached the halfway stage of the group phase, Carlo Ancelotti will be well aware that another loss for his side could severely damage their chances of finishing in the top eight, thus placing them outside of automatic qualification for the next round. Despite a side dripping with quality across the pitch, including recent summer acquisition Kylian Mbappé, Los Blancos face a challenging task as they travel to Liverpool this week, fully aware of the Reds’ remarkable form at both ends of the pitch since Arne Slot succeeded Jürgen Klopp.
Champions League Form: W2 D0 L2
This season, Real Madrid average 2.25 goals per game in Europe while conceding an average of 1.75. Over 2.5 goals have featured in 75% of those encounters overall (3 out of 4 matches).
Head-to-Head
These two sides have faced each other 11 times on the European stage, with Real Madrid dominating the record, having won 7 times, drawn 1, and lost 3. They are unbeaten in their last 8 head-to-heads against Liverpool. Their most recent encounter was in the 2022/23 season, where Madrid triumphed 5-2 away to Liverpool in the first leg, followed by a 1-0 victory in the second leg at home.
Betting
Liverpool 9/10
Draw 29/10
Real Madrid 29/10
Verdict
Despite Liverpool’s strong campaign, it’s impossible to discount a side of Real Madrid’s quality, especially one desperate to make amends in Europe. While the Reds have been superb defensively, this matchup promises to be more competitive than the one-sided games they’ve dominated this season. Predicting an outright winner feels tricky, so the focus shifts to goals. Backing both teams to score and at least three goals to feature appears a solid play between these two elite sides.
Suggested Bet: Totals and Both Teams to Score, Over 2.5 and Yes at 15/20
Click here for all of this week’s European football action
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
