Continuing from last week, we turn our attention to two second-leg play-offs in Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League schedule, with a quarter-final spot up for grabs. Here are our betting suggestions for both fixtures.
Before doing so, let’s take a quick look at the latest outright odds. Barcelona are currently priced at 7/2, closely followed by both Liverpool and Real Madrid at 4/1. Bayern Munich are next at 11/2, with Arsenal not far behind at 6/1. The rest of the field are currently priced at 10/1 or higher.
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ATLÉTICO MADRID v REAL MADRID – Click here to bet
Atlético Madrid will be looking to overturn a one-goal deficit when they host Real Madrid at the Metropolitano on Wednesday in the second leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie.
Last week’s 2-1 defeat at the Bernabéu ended Diego Simeone’s 10-match unbeaten run, and Atlético followed it up with another setback over the weekend, losing 2-1 to Getafe. That result cost them a golden opportunity to leapfrog Barcelona and Real Madrid at the top of La Liga, leaving them third in the standings, one point adrift with 56 points. However, with their focus firmly on this crucial European clash, they will be confident of making home advantage count.
Atlético have been strong at the Metropolitano in Europe this season, winning three of their four home games, losing just once. They have also gone unbeaten in their last three home meetings with Carlo Ancelotti’s side (W1, D2), a record they’ll be eager to extend.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, travel across town knowing they have the slight upper hand but that the job is far from done. Ancelotti will be wary of Atlético’s threat, especially given Real’s recent struggles at the Metropolitano, where they have failed to win in their last three visits.
Los Blancos maintained their domestic momentum over the weekend with a 2-1 victory over Rayo Vallecano, keeping them level with Barcelona at the top of La Liga—one point ahead of Atlético. However, their Champions League campaign has had its shaky moments, with three defeats in nine matches. That said, they have produced big performances on the road, securing wins at Manchester City and Atalanta, though they did fall to a 2-0 defeat at Anfield against Liverpool.
With everything on the line, this Madrid derby promises to be an intense battle, with both sides determined to punch their ticket to the quarter-finals.
Head-to-Head
Last week’s 2-1 win for Real Madrid ended a run of three consecutive 1-1 draws between these two sides.
Betting
Atlético Madrid 16/10
Draw 26/10
Real Madrid 17/10
Verdict
Given Atlético Madrid’s strong recent record against Real Madrid, I believe Diego Simeone’s side will be competitive and avoid defeat. While a draw is tempting, I’m backing Atlético to stay unbeaten with both teams scoring, especially since they’ve kept just one clean sheet against Real Madrid at the Metropolitano in their last six meetings.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Both Teams to Score – Atlético Madrid and Yes at 12/10
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ARSENAL v PSV EINDHOVEN – Click here to bet
Arsenal enter this game off the back of a 1-1 draw away to Manchester United on Sunday, a result that further dented their Premier League title ambitions. Now 15 points adrift of runaway leaders Liverpool, their attention shifts back to the Champions League, where they’ve been far more dominant this season.
Last week, despite fielding a depleted squad, the Gunners dismantled PSV Eindhoven with an emphatic 7-1 victory in the first leg of their round of 16 tie. With qualification virtually secured, Mikel Arteta may opt to rotate his squad, especially with a crucial league fixture against Chelsea on the horizon.
Arsenal have been exceptional in Europe, winning seven of their nine matches, drawing once, and losing just once. Their defensive record has been outstanding, conceding only four goals while scoring 23. At the Emirates, they have been flawless, winning all four of their Champions League games without conceding. Even with potential changes to the lineup, another dominant display seems likely as Arsenal aim to finish the job in front of their home crowd in style.
PSV’s European campaign is all but over following last week’s humbling 7-1 defeat at home to Arsenal in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie. Having already claimed a notable 3-2 win over Liverpool in the group stage, few expected such a one-sided affair when the Dutch side hosted the Gunners at the Philips Stadion.
Despite trailing 3-1 at halftime, things quickly unravelled even further for Peter Bosz’s side in the second-half as they conceded four more goals, leaving them with little more than pride to play for heading into Wednesday’s return leg at the Emirates. With the pressure off, PSV may look to salvage some dignity in London, but the damage has already been done.
Domestically, PSV remain in the Eredivisie title race, sitting second, eight points behind Ajax after 25 matches. They responded to last week’s European humiliation with a 2-1 win over Heerenveen over the weekend, but their defensive struggles on the road in Europe persist—they have yet to keep a clean sheet away from home this season.
Head-to-Head
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last three encounters with PSV, following last week’s 7-1 victory. At the Emirates, the Gunners have won their last two against the Red and Whites without conceding, letting in just one goal in their last five meetings in London.
Betting
Arsenal 4/10
Draw 4/1
PSV Eindhoven 13/2
Verdict
Arsenal are in a commanding position after their 7-1 first-leg victory and should have no trouble advancing to the quarter-finals. With PSV’s confidence shaken and Arsenal’s strong home form, they’re set to finish the job. From a betting perspective, Arsenal to win to nil stands out, given the clear gap in quality and their flawless home record, alongside PSV’s struggles on the road.
Suggested Bet: Arsenal to win to nil – Yes at 12/10
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
