The UEFA Champions League semi-finals begin this Tuesday, with all eyes on the Emirates Stadium as Arsenal host Paris Saint-Germain in what promises to be a thrilling first-leg clash. Here are my thoughts on the match, along with a suggested bet you might want to consider.
Here’s a quick look at the latest outright odds for the UEFA Champions League semi-finals: Barcelona lead the way as favourites at 2/1, with Paris Saint-Germain close behind at 23/10. Arsenal are priced at 12/5, while Inter Milan are the outsiders at 9/2.
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ARSENAL v PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN – Click here to bet
Arsenal have enjoyed an outstanding Champions League campaign, finishing 3rd in the new 36-team standings with six wins, one draw, and a single defeat. Their strong group phase earned them direct progression to the Round of 16, where they thrashed PSV Eindhoven 9-3 on aggregate before producing another statement by sweeping aside defending champions Real Madrid 5-1 over two legs.
The Gunners now stand just two matches away from a first Champions League final appearance since 2006 — still chasing a maiden European crown. Having already beaten PSG 2-0 earlier in the competition, Mikel Arteta’s side will be quietly confident of reaching only their second-ever final. Their home form has been crucial too, keeping five clean sheets in six European outings at the Emirates this season.
With the Premier League title now out of reach and second place looking all but secured—currently holding a five-point lead over nearest rivals Newcastle United with four matches remaining—Arsenal’s focus is likely on Europe for the time being. Encouragingly, they are unbeaten in their last twelve matches across all competitions, winning six and drawing six, and will look to carry that momentum into Tuesday’s crucial first leg.
Similarly, Paris Saint-Germain are still in search of their first Champions League triumph, having fallen just short in the 2020 final against Bayern Munich. Their route to the last four has been far less straightforward, finishing 15th in the group phase (4 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats) and needing to navigate a playoff round. They thrashed Brest 10-0 on aggregate before edging Liverpool on penalties after a tense 1-1 draw over two legs, and narrowly saw off Aston Villa 5-4 in the quarter-finals.
Already beaten 2-0 at the Emirates earlier this season, PSG know they can ill afford another slip-up on English soil. Their away form has been inconsistent, with two defeats already in this campaign, and tightening up defensively will be key to avoiding a damaging first-leg deficit.
Domestically, PSG have already wrapped up the Ligue 1 title, allowing full focus on their European quest. However, a 3-1 defeat to Nice at the weekend — their first league loss of the season — has slightly punctured their momentum heading into this crucial clash.
Head-to-Head
Arsenal are unbeaten in all five previous meetings with PSG, recording three wins and two draws overall, including a 2-0 victory in the league phase last October. In the Champions League specifically, the sides have met three times, with the Gunners registering one win and two draws.
Betting
Arsenal 23/20
Draw 5/2
Paris Saint-Germain 12/5
Verdict
Arsenal to avoid defeat with three goals or less looks a strong option, given their solid defensive record at the Emirates—this market has landed in five of their six home matches in Europe this season, with the only exception being a 2-2 draw against PSV. Considering PSG’s inconsistent away form and the high stakes of this Champions League semi-final first leg, a tight, controlled game with limited goals seems likely.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Total – Arsenal/Draw and Under 3.5 at 8/10
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
