UEFA Champions League returns this Tuesday and we pick up where we left off in last week’s write-ups. In this preview, we focus on two crucial second-leg play-off clashes, with all four teams battling for a spot in the quarter-finals.
Before we get started, let’s take a quick look at the latest outright odds. Barcelona are currently priced at 7/2, closely followed by both Liverpool and Real Madrid at 4/1. Bayern Munich are next at 11/2, with Arsenal not far behind at 6/1. The rest of the field are currently priced at 10/1 or higher.
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BARCELONA v BENFICA – Click here to bet
Barcelona secured a crucial 1-0 victory in Portugal last week, despite playing with 10 men from the 22nd minute, thanks to Raphinha’s 61st-minute strike. Tuesday’s second-leg clash against Benfica will be their third European meeting this season, with Barcelona also edging a thrilling 5-4 win in Lisbon on match day seven.
The Catalan giants hold the psychological advantage, aiming to secure their spot in the quarter-finals. They have lost just once in Europe this season, winning seven and drawing one, while currently enjoying a 16-game unbeaten run across all competitions (W13, D3). Last week’s narrow win marked their first clean sheet in four European outings and the first time a Barcelona match in this campaign failed to produce over 2.5 goals in the Champions League.
However, their preparations for the second leg have been overshadowed by the tragic passing of their first-team doctor, leading to the last-minute postponement of Saturday’s home fixture against Osasuna.
Last week’s 1-0 home defeat to Barcelona was Benfica’s second loss to the Catalan side this season, bringing an end to their impressive eight-game unbeaten run (W7, D1).
Despite their struggles against Barcelona, Benfica remain firmly in contention for a quarter-final spot, with just a one-goal deficit to overturn. They have won their last three European away games, including clean sheet victories over Monaco and Juventus, providing plenty of motivation for Tuesday’s clash. However, they have also lost four of their last nine matches in Europe overall.
Encouragingly, Benfica responded to last week’s setback with a dominant 3-0 domestic victory over Nacional at the weekend and will look to carry that momentum into the second leg.
Head-to-Head
Barcelona have won their last two encounters with Benfica, first edging a 5-4 thriller away earlier this year, followed by last week’s 1-0 victory in Lisbon.
Betting
Barcelona 7/20
Draw 5/1
Benfica 13/2
Verdict
Even though only 1 team found the net in the first leg, I’m expecting goals at both ends on Tuesday. With Barcelona’s quality and Benfica needing to chase the game, there should be plenty of chances. Barcelona will likely see out the tie, but I’m predicting both teams to score and at least three goals to feature on the day.
Suggested Bet: Totals and Both Teams to Score – Over 2.5 and Yes at 7/10
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LIVERPOOL v PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN – Click here to bet
Despite being outplayed in the first leg of their Round of 16 clash against PSG, Liverpool defied the odds to claim a surprising victory in France. Goalkeeper Alisson was instrumental, making an incredible 10 saves to keep the Reds in the game before Harvey Elliott, just moments after replacing Mo Salah, netted the 87th-minute winner in a classic smash-and-grab result.
That victory extended Liverpool’s unbeaten run to seven matches in all competitions, including four consecutive wins. Their 3-1 triumph over Southampton at the weekend further cemented their position at the top of the Premier League, holding a double-digit lead over nearest rivals Arsenal.
In Europe, Liverpool lost just once in the group stage and have now won an impressive eight of their nine Champions League matches this season. Last week’s result sends a strong warning to PSG ahead of Tuesday’s second leg at Anfield, where Liverpool have been dominant—winning all four home games in the competition, scoring 10 goals, and conceding just once.
Paris Saint-Germain were left frustrated after last week’s first-leg defeat at the Parc des Princes. Despite dominating nearly every statistic except the score-line, they fell to a 1-0 loss, bringing an end to their 10-game winning streak in all competitions.
However, PSG remain confident they can overturn the deficit, knowing a place in the Champions League quarter-finals is still very much at stake. Their recent European away form is encouraging, having won their last three road games—each by a three-goal margin—against Salzburg, Stuttgart, and Brest.
The French champions quickly bounced back over the weekend with a commanding 4-1 league victory away to Rennes, maintaining their dominant 16-point lead at the top of Ligue 1 ahead of Marseille.
Head-to-Head
These two have met three times in the Champions League, with Liverpool having the upper hand after last week’s 1-0 win in Paris—making it their second win over PSG. The last time they played at Anfield was in the 2018/19 season, where Liverpool came out on top with a thrilling 3-2 victory.
Betting
Liverpool 5/4
Draw 29/10
Paris Saint-Germain 19/10
Verdict
Expect plenty of action at both ends on Tuesday. Last week’s 1-0 score-line feels like an anomaly, given how both teams have been playing all season. I’m not sure Alisson can replicate his performance from the first leg, so I expect PSG to hit back. While I don’t see Liverpool losing the tie, I can see both teams getting on the score sheet despite Liverpool’s solid defensive record in Europe this season.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Both Teams to Score – Liverpool/Draw and Yes at 11/10
Top of Form
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
