This Tuesday, we return to the UEFA Champions League, where we take a look at two crucial encounters in the first leg of the play-off qualifications, as teams battle to secure their place in the round of 16. Here are our insights, along with betting markets you may want to consider.
Before we get started, let’s take a quick look at the latest outright odds. Liverpool lead the way as favourites at 4/1, with Arsenal and Barcelona closely behind at 6/1. Defending champions Real Madrid follow at 7/1, while the remaining contenders are priced at 8/1 or higher.
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JUVENTUS v PSV EINDHOVEN – Click here to bet
Juventus return to Europe this week as they host PSV at the Allianz Stadium in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League play-off battle. Having narrowly advanced to the play-off round despite failing to score in their last two UCL outings, they can count themselves fortunate. However, with a 3-1 victory over PSV on matchday one in the group stage, they will head into this clash with plenty of confidence based on their previous encounter. Fresh off back-to-back league wins for the first time since early November, momentum seems to be shifting in the Black and Whites’ favour. Juventus secured a comprehensive 4-1 victory at home to Empoli, followed by a 2-1 win away to Como this weekend, and they will look to make it three consecutive wins when they square off against the Dutch side on Tuesday evening.
Thiago Motta’s side finished 20th in the group stage with 12 points from eight games. A stronger showing in Turin could have spared them from this precarious situation, as they won just twice in their four games in Italy. They will be hoping to improve on that record this week. Having comprehensively beaten PSV in their standalone meeting earlier this season, the boys from Turin will be confident going into this clash, knowing that a solid first-leg lead could prove vital, with a trip to Philips Stadium awaiting them in the second leg.
Meanwhile, PSV travel to Turin sitting second in the Eredivisie. Despite their recent visit to Turin, the Dutch side outperformed Juventus in the overall UCL standings, finishing 14th after eight group-stage matches—two points ahead of the Bianconeri. Their most impressive moment came in a dramatic 3-2 win over Liverpool on matchday eight, making them the only team to defeat the Reds in this season’s competition. However, recent form has wavered, with just one victory in their last three matches, including a frustrating 1-1 draw against Willem II over the weekend.
The Dutch side are enjoying their first back-to-back UCL knockout appearances since 2006/07, but to progress further, they will need to improve their away form. Peter Bosz’s team have secured just one win in their last five road encounters across all competitions, conceding eight goals in their last three. That said, their most recent UCL away trip ended in a thrilling 3-2 win at Red Star, a result that should give them much-needed belief as they look to improve on their earlier visit to Juventus in Turin this campaign.
Head-to-Head
The two sides faced off earlier this season for the first time, with Juventus triumphing 3-1 in Turin.
Betting
Juventus 19/20
Draw 26/10
PSV Eindhoven 3/1
Verdict
Juventus will be eager to take a healthy lead back to the Netherlands, especially after their recent domestic resurgence and result against Peter Bosz’s side earlier this season. While PSV may have won against Liverpool in the previous round, their defensive vulnerabilities on the road could prove costly once again. For that reason, I’m backing the hosts at rather favourable odds for an outright win.
Suggested Bet: Full Time Result, Juventus at 19/20
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MANCHESTER CITY v REAL MADRID – Click here to bet
For the fourth consecutive season, Manchester City and Real Madrid face off in the UEFA Champions League knockout stages, but this time in the play-off round—a shocking scenario that guarantees one of these European powerhouses won’t even make the last 16. The Etihad Stadium will host the first leg, where City must shake off their recent struggles if they hope to take control of the tie.
It has been a disappointing European campaign by City’s lofty standards. They finished 22nd in the group stage standings, scraping into the play-off round with just 11 points from eight matches. Their fate was only secured on the final match day with a crucial victory over Club Brugge, underlining their inconsistency in the competition. That lack of dominance has mirrored their domestic form, with City suffering a crushing 5-1 Premier League defeat to Arsenal before barely edging past League One side Leyton Orient in the FA Cup with a 2-1 victory. Adding to their concerns, they have conceded the opening goal in their last two home games, hinting at defensive frailties that Real Madrid will be eager to exploit. Worryingly for the hosts, no team has knocked them out of the UCL more times than Los Blancos, having done so three times already.
Real Madrid will head into Tuesday’s showdown at the Etihad Stadium after a hard-fought 1-1 draw against Atlético Madrid, a result that kept them at the top of La Liga. However, their Champions League journey has proven to be less convincing. They finished 11th in the group stage with 15 points from eight games, a disappointing outcome by their standards. Careless performances in the early rounds ultimately left them vulnerable to a tricky play-off tie—one that could have been avoided had they been more clinical.
Despite City’s struggles, Madrid know they cannot afford any complacency. While they have eliminated an English club in the knockout stages in each of the last four UCL campaigns, their record on English soil remains mixed, with 11 losses from 26 visits. Moreover, their last three exits from Europe have all come against English opposition, including their defeat to Manchester City in the 2022/23 campaign.
Head-to-Head
Last season, the pair faced off in the quarter-finals, with both encounters ending in score draws— a 3-3 draw in Madrid followed by a 1-1 result at the Etihad and real Madrid progressed on penalties.
Betting
Manchester City 13/10
Draw 28/10
Real Madrid 15/8
Verdict
Unbeaten in their last five home matches against Real Madrid in this competition, City’s record seems to favour them in the first leg. However, their recent form suggests Madrid could return to Spain with a positive result. The Citizens have yet to convince me this season, and while they have a strong record against Ancelotti’s side, my preference is for the visitors to secure a positive result in what promises to be an entertaining first leg.
Suggested Bet: Double Chance and Both Teams to Score, Draw/Real Madrid and Yes at 5/4
Top of Form
Bottom of Form
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
