We take a look at Tuesday’s intriguing 2nd leg Champions League semi-final encounter between Paris Saint-Germain and Dortmund, where Ligue 1 Champions look to overturn a 1-goal deficit, an angle worth pursuing as we suggest a bet for the game.
But before doing so, let’s have a look at the latest outright betting. Real Madrid are currently 12/10 favourites, ahead of Paris Saint-Germain at 3/1. Bayern Munich, in third place, can be snapped up at 7/2, leaving Borussia Dortmund at 13/2.
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PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN v DORTMUND– Click here to bet
Paris Saint-Germain will welcome Dortmund to Paris Tuesday evening, looking to overcome a slender deficit obtained by the visitors in the 1st leg. Last week’s result marked the 3rd time this season they’ve lost away in Europe, emphasizing how reliant they have become on recovering at Parc des Princes. Despite trailing 1-0, PSG will fancy their chances, having won by 2 or more goals three times already as hosts in Europe this season, including a 2-0 win over Dortmund in the group stages.
Having already secured the Ligue 1 title for the 12th time last weekend, PSG go into this clash fresher than their opponents, given their last competitive encounter was, in fact, last week’s 1st leg tie between these two, giving the French Club ample time to rest up and press the reset button. Luis Enrique will have his full complement at his disposal, in the hopes of securing their place in the final of the most prestigious club competition in Europe. At home, Paris Saint-Germain have registered 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss en route to the semi-final.
Paris Saint-Germain have averaged 2 goals per game at home in Europe this season, with under 2.5 goals arriving in 60% of those games (3 out of 5).
Dortmund secured a slender 1-0 win over PSG in the 1st leg. It was a much-needed victory for the German club, given how they have fared on their travels this season in Europe.
Jadon Sancho, in particular, put on a superb display, and despite creating countless chances, the visitors may come to regret failing to add to their tally, given how dangerous PSG can be with the talent they have at their disposal.
Having faced Paris Saint-Germain in the group stages, they will know all too well what to expect from the hosts come Tuesday evening. There will be concern that, on their travels, Dortmund have not fared the greatest, registering just 2 wins on the road. Coincidentally, the only time they have lost by 2 or more goals this season in Europe was when they visited PSG last September. On the domestic front, Dortmund continued their winning momentum this weekend after registering a 5-1 demolition over Augsburg, placing them 5th in the Bundesliga standings.
Dortmund have averaged 1.2 goals per game away from home in Europe this season with under 2.5 goals arriving 60% of those games (3 out of 5).
Head-to-Head
This fixture resulted in a 2-0 win for Paris Saint-Germain in the Group stages earlier this season.
Betting
Paris Saint-Germain 40/85
Draw 4/1
Dortmund 5/1
Verdict
There is no doubt that PSG will rely heavily on the services of Kylian Mbappé if they are to get over the line here. Currently the joint top scorer in the tournament with 8 goals, he will look to add to his already impressive tally in the hopes of getting his team to the final. However, at 4/7 for anytime goal-scorer, an alternative market may be worth pursuing if we are to find value.
PSG are expected to do most of the running given they have a deficit to overturn. This particular fixture has surprisingly been a low-scoring affair over the years, given they have met seven times with under 2.5 goals arriving on six occasions. The hosts have managed to keep 3 clean sheets out of 5 at home en route to this point, including one against Dortmund in the group stages. On paper, this should be an explosive encounter, but given the magnitude of the occasion, there is a possibility this encounter fails to meet those expectations. A chance is taken on two separate markets based on the above-mentioned.
Suggested Bet: Multiscores, PSG to win 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 at 19/10. 1st Goalscorer, Kylian Mbappe at 5/2.
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Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
